For over 5,000 years, gold has accompanied humanity as a symbol of power, wealth, and above all, security. It has been currency in ancient empires, a reserve for modern central banks, and an object of desire in times of crisis. Its scarcity, durability, and independence from any government or financial system have made it a unique asset: it does not yield interest nor depends on anyone's promise of payment, yet when everything else fails, it is gold that remains.
In the 19th century, it was the cornerstone of the global monetary system under the gold standard, backing national currencies and ensuring the stability of commercial exchanges. With the breakdown of Bretton Woods in 1971, many predicted its decline, but time proved otherwise: gold did not disappear, it simply changed its attire. It moved from the center of the monetary system to become the silent core of many heritage portfolios. Today, far from becoming irrelevant, it has resurfaced as a universal refuge sought by individuals, fund managers, and central banks who see it as a shield against inflation, political uncertainty, or financial market collapses.
Its value does not come from cash flow or dividends, but from something more fundamental and paradoxically more solid: the trust it inspires in the worst moments. It has survived wars, bankruptcies, hyperinflations, and technological transitions. Gold does not belong to the past: it is part of the present and projects into the future as an asset that does not need to innovate to continue fulfilling its function.
Today, in a world once again tumultuous with tariff threats, geopolitical tensions, and growing doubts about the global economic direction, gold is once again taking a central place. Not as a trend or an emotional response, but as what it has always been: a silent witness of time that protects those who hold it when everything else falters.
In this context, J.P. Morgan maintains a long-term bullish perspective: "A scenario of universal tariffs could significantly boost the price of precious metals. Concerns about growth and inflation will continue to drive strong investment demand for gold," says Natasha Kaneva, head of commodity strategy at the U.S. bank. As global politics become volatile and inflation looms, gold continues to do what it does best: protect.
Shelter
During each major recession of the last five decades, gold has demonstrated its ability to withstand and even gain value when other assets, such as stocks, falter. Let's look at some specific examples. During the 1973-1975 recession, gold rose from $97 to $175 per ounce. An 80% increase. During the same period, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 15%, while the S&P 500 plummeted nearly 18%. In the early 1980s, another turbulent period for the U.S. economy, the pattern persisted. From January to July 1980, gold appreciated by 20%, while inflation rose by 6% and stocks barely scratched an 8% return. Gold once again fulfilled its promise: to withstand when everything else is uncertain. In 2001, after the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 9/11 attacks, gold also offered refuge. Although its rise was more modest (4.5%), it occurred in a context of deflation and a 4.7% stock market decline. But it was during the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 that gold definitively consolidated its place in contemporary financial imagination. While the S&P 500 suffered a historic loss of almost 40%, gold appreciated by 16%. More than an asset, it was a lifesaver for those who held it in their portfolios. The story repeated itself in a golden key: when confidence in the financial system diminishes, gold shines. And more recently, during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, between February and April 2020, gold rose by 8%, while the world was in panic and stocks plummeted by almost 16%. Amid global chaos, gold once again became synonymous with stability.
Resilience
How can this resilience be explained? First, by its physical and finite nature. Gold does not depend on anyone's promise of payment. It does not devalue by decree nor can it go bankrupt like a company. It does not yield interest, that's true, but it also does not demand blind trust: it simply exists, and in times of doubt, that is enough. Second, its history. Gold has been accepted as money, as treasure, and as a symbol of wealth for over 5,000 years. In ancient Rome, an aureus of gold (~8 grams) could pay a soldier's monthly salary. Today, an ounce of gold (~30 grams) can cover, in many countries, a month's average salary. That surprisingly constant equivalence is the best definition of value preservation. Third, its independence. Gold is not tied to any economy, monetary policy, or central bank. In times of de-dollarization, trade wars, and cross-border sanctions, this neutrality makes it a strategic asset, both for investors and central banks. The current context reinforces this thesis. Donald Trump's return to the political forefront has reactivated fears of an aggressive protectionist cycle. His threats to impose tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese products and penalize countries that do not cooperate with his agenda generate unease in the markets. Even before announcing his tariff measures, the mere announcement of his intentions has been enough to move capital towards defensive assets, and gold has been one of the main beneficiaries. This possibility aligns with the "disruptive scenario" described by J.P. Morgan, which foresees that the increase in tariffs, high inflation, and the expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit will strengthen the demand for gold as a hedge against monetary value loss.
Central Banks
According to recent data from the World Gold Council, central banks have increased their gold reserves to record levels. A behavior that Goldman Sachs supports in its forecasts: "The higher-than-expected increase in central bank demand, partly motivated by the freezing of Russian assets in 2022, drives our projections," explains Lina Thomas, an analyst at the bank. By the end of 2025, Deutsche Bank has also raised its forecasts: it now estimates an average price of $3,139 for 2025 and $3,700 for 2026, driven by recent global geopolitical and economic tensions. Countries like China, India, and Turkey are accumulating bullion in response to geopolitical uncertainty and the weakening of the dollar. In 2023 and 2024, official gold purchases exceeded 1,000 tons annually, an unprecedented volume in half a century.
However, it is advisable not to idealize. Gold is not a panacea and as always, it is best to seek professional guidance. It does not generate passive income, nor does it multiply capital like stocks in times of prosperity. But it does not aim to do so either. Its function is not to grow, but to not disappear. In other words: gold is not held to gain, it is held to not lose everything. This conservative view has not prevented gold from performing brilliantly in recent months. Renta4 Banco points out that "normally gold acts as a safe haven asset and tends to be a good option in this type of environment.
Currently, it is important to consider that it is trading near its historical highs, approximately at $3,000 per ounce, having risen by 27% in 2024 and 16% so far in 2025. A philosophy that seems to also be guiding central banks, whose purchases in 2024 exceeded 1,000 tons once again. China, for example, resumed its accumulation in November with 5 tons, followed by another 10 in December. J.P. Morgan predicts that, under a disruptive macroeconomic scenario, these acquisitions could remain strong and become a key source of demand in 2025. Therefore, beyond what Trump says, inflation, or the cycles of the Federal Reserve, gold will continue to hold a place in diversified portfolios. Not out of trend or speculation, but for what it represents: insurance against the unthinkable. Those who understand this do not see it as an opportunistic asset, but as a long-term companion. Because if history has taught us anything, it is that gold does not need to speak to remind us that it is there when we need it. Few assets carry as many centuries of meaning as gold. It does not speak, but it is present when words fail; it does not promise, but it accompanies when promises are broken. Its history is not only financial, but also cultural, symbolic, human. It has been a medal and a punishment, currency and talisman, dowry, treasure, shield. Throughout the most relevant recessions of the last half-century, gold has maintained a silent coherence: resisting when everything else falters. In times of inflation, crisis, or fear, its price does not always rise loudly, but it almost never disappears from the map.
Its value, beyond the price, lies in what it represents: permanence. Today, facing a new stage of trade tensions, political risks, and unanswered questions, gold is once again part of the conversations. Not because it is new, but because it never left. While economic cycles turn and certainties fade, this metal continues to play its role without urgency or fanfare. It is no coincidence that civilizations worldwide have trusted in its value for thousands of years without interruption. Gold does not offer solutions, but perhaps that is why it is so valuable: because in a world that changes every day, there is something in its shine that remains. And sometimes, that is enough.