Nobody trusts, but investors face the weekend with apparent calm. Uncertainty is still there, and proof of this is that the 'fear' index, the American VIX, is far from returning to calm levels (around 20 basis points). It bounces back this Friday above 40 points after the steep falls seen yesterday on Wall Street, following Donald Trump's decision to announce, once again and abruptly, a new tariff increase on Chinese products up to 145%. Beijing, for now, maintains a border rate of 85%.
At the moment, the European opening wakes up with moderate gains of 0.05% for the Ibex 35, up to 12,350 points, evidence of the volatility experienced in the European pre-market. The EuroStoxx 50 gains more than 1%, at 4,865 points; the same gain recorded at this time by the Stock Exchanges of Paris, London, Frankfurt, and Milan. It has been two days since the U.S. announced a 90-day truce on tariffs, which the European Union joined yesterday, but the market still has many doubts, and it is not ruled out that it is just a way to prolong the anguish until July when the real economic shock will arrive.
Investors continue to buy German bonds to seek shelter from the tariff war unleashed by the Administration. That is where the real battle is being fought this week. Today, the ten-year Bund is slightly below 2.6%. In contrast, sales remain in the U.S. bond whose ten-year paper continues at one-month highs, above 4.4%. According to Renta 4, this flight from American debt is justified not only by tariff uncertainty but also by the need for hedge funds to sell to increase their liquidity in times of crisis. "Moreover, is there a loss of confidence in American debt?" ask the analysts.
In the Asian market, it is assumed that China is intervening in its stock market, hence its main indices have been able to escape a week of extreme volatility caused by the U.S. The CSI 300 closed this Friday with a 0.4% increase and the Shanghai Stock Exchange with a 0.46% rise. The Japanese market has been affected by the declines seen on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, with the Nikkei index falling by 2.96%.
Meanwhile, the European reference Brent oil rises less than 1% this Friday, still below $64 per barrel. Gold, the ultimate safe haven, continues to rise this session, above $3,220 per ounce, at historical highs.