Donald Trump's decision to postpone reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, except for China, has given global markets a breather. While Wall Street indices surged on Wednesday after the tariff shift, the effect has now been replicated in the Tokyo stock market and European markets on Thursday.
Additionally, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has announced that the EU is suspending countermeasures against US tariffs for 90 days to allow for negotiations. However, if the negotiations are not satisfactory, "our countermeasures will come into effect," she stated.
On the other hand, China's Ministry of Commerce spokesperson, He Yongqian, has warned about the dangers posed by the new tariffs. He stated, "The US recently announced indiscriminate tariffs on all its trading partners, including China, which violate the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies and severely impact the global economic order."
The EU Pauses Countermeasures Against US Tariffs
The European Union has paused its initial countermeasures against the tariffs announced by Donald Trump for 90 days, a period that has also been postponed by the US.
"We take note of President Trump's announcement. We want to give negotiations a chance. While we finalize the adoption of the EU's countermeasures, which have received strong support from our Member States, we will suspend them for 90 days," stated Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, in a statement.
Beijing's Retaliation Will Affect US Technology, Aviation, and Agriculture
Beijing's retaliation against Donald Trump's tariffs, including an 84% duty on US imports, will have varying impacts on American companies, with technology, agriculture, machinery, and aviation sectors expected to be the most affected, as reported by Efe.
China's countermeasures also include sanctions on certain US companies, restrictions on rare earth exports, and the suspension of certain agricultural imports.
In 2023, China imported goods worth around $150 billion from the US, a figure lower than the $180 billion recorded in 2018, before the first episode of the trade war between the two largest economies in the world.
Aside from the effects on supply chains - many US companies rely on components and materials imported from China - and prices, Beijing's tariffs will have a greater impact on companies that export directly to China from US territory, such as Boeing, Qualcomm, or AMD, and a lesser impact on those with integrated internal chains.
AIReF Maintains 2.5% Growth Forecast, but Uncertainty Could Subtract 0.5%
The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) has decided to maintain its 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast at 2.5%, but has warned that uncertainty from the trade war could subtract up to 0.5 points from economic growth "if not corrected quickly," according to Europa Press.
AIReF has kept its GDP growth forecast at 2.5% due to the strength of domestic demand and investment recovery. However, this forecast update does not include the impact of the trade war or the effects of increased uncertainty.
"We do not know what will happen in the trade area, and it is very difficult to incorporate the impact of US tariffs," explained Esther Gordo, Director of Economic Analysis Division at AIReF, during a press conference.
Nevertheless, AIReF has conducted a separate exercise estimating that this increase in uncertainty could subtract up to 0.5 points from GDP this year if not quickly corrected.
UPTA Estimates 200,000 Self-Employed Individuals Will Suffer from the Tariff Crisis
The Union of Professionals and Self-Employed Workers (UPTA) estimates that around 200,000 self-employed individuals in Spain will suffer the consequences of the tariff war initiated by US President Donald Trump. UPTA criticized the government for not explicitly mentioning the self-employed in the measures approved to mitigate the effects of this situation, stating that self-employed individuals will face "serious economic challenges" resulting from this crisis, as reported by Europa Press.
UPTA demanded that, in addition to accessing financing, being able to redirect their business to new export markets, and considering the exemption of social security contributions if necessary, the fundamental protection tool for the self-employed, such as the extraordinary cessation of activity, be put into action, as was done in similar serious situations like the COVID-19 pandemic.
Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary, Influences Trump's Decision
Many on Wall Street expected Scott Bessent to be the voice of reason within the Trump administration during the tariff war. The Treasury Secretary rejects this label and stated to journalists on Wednesday that the plan for a 90-day tariff pause was conceived from the beginning by Trump. It is "the art of doing business," he affirmed.
A billionaire born in South Carolina and a descendant of Huguenots (French Calvinist Protestants), Bessent, the founder of the investment fund Key Square, openly gay, was George Soros' right-hand man from 1991 to 2015, the most hated Democratic financier by the right.
EU to "Take Time" to Analyze Tariff Suspension
"President Von der Leyen welcomed President Trump's announcement (to suspend tariffs for 90 days) as 'an important step towards stabilizing the global economy.' The European Commission will now take the necessary time to evaluate this latest development, in close consultation with Member States and industry, before deciding on the next steps," stated the EU Trade spokesperson, Olof Gill, on X.
Weapons China Can Use in Response to Trump's 125% Tariffs
In China, leaders of major companies and Western observers are trying to find a common interpretation of the US's tariff offensive. Beyond the clear and firm response from the government - highlighted, for example, by the Global Times, the semi-official newspaper of the regime - which unequivocally stigmatizes Trump's orchestrated "blackmail measures," there remains the challenge of understanding the opponent's maneuvers, the hidden objectives of this trade war, and how to face them in the long term.
Some in the Asian country see the tariffs as a "provocation" that will end in the short term, while others fear that there is a desire to push China (today the world's factory) back to the isolation it experienced before the death of Mao Zedong.
Hereu Sees an "Opportunity to Negotiate"
The Minister of Industry and Tourism, Jordi Hereu, welcomed the 90-day pause in applying tariffs to most countries: "It gives the world an opportunity to negotiate."
"We want to avoid trade wars; they lead us nowhere," Hereu stated to the media at the Advanced Factories congress held in L'Hospitalet de Llobregat (Barcelona).
Asked about Spain's approach to China, he argued that it is "common sense" to diversify the economy and help SMEs and large companies find new markets, a move supported, in his opinion, by the behavior of the stock markets, as reported by Europa Press.
The Government Reaffirms its Commitment to Beijing
A political leader's visit to China is always significant. Traveling to the world's second-largest economy now means much more. Pedro Sánchez lands in Beijing on Friday - the first leader to do so after the tariff war erupted - on a trip coordinated with the EU, aiming to strengthen political and economic relations - in reality, to somewhat rebalance the significant trade gap between the two countries. The Spanish President will meet with Xi Jinping after US criticism of Spain for its approach to China and after Donald Trump decreed a 90-day tariff truce with the exception of China.
Sánchez, who describes the imposition of tariffs as "unjustified" and "harmful," considers the truce announced by the US administration "a gateway to negotiation and agreement between countries."
China Implements 84% Tariffs on US
China's new 84% tariffs on US goods have come into effect on Thursday in response to the "reciprocal" additional tariffs imposed by the US on the Asian giant.
According to China's State Council Customs Tariff Commission, the US practice of increasing tariffs is "one mistake after another, seriously violating China's legitimate rights and interests and severely harming the multilateral rules-based trading system," as reported by Europa Press.
Thus, in accordance with Chinese legislation, as well as basic principles of international law, and with the approval of the State Council, starting from Thursday, the Asian country has adjusted the tariff increase measures on imported goods from the US, raising the duty from 34% to 84%.