When markets tremble, savers stop seeking spectacular returns and focus on something simpler: protecting their money. The recent tariff threat by Donald Trump, combined with a rise in global uncertainty, has put many on alert. Today, the question many ask is: where to place money when stocks fall and the economy slows down? History provides some clues.
For centuries, gold has been considered a safe haven. It does not depend on a company's health or central bank decisions. It is a tangible, scarce asset accepted worldwide. Data supports this. During the 2008 financial crisis, while the S&P 500 fell by 45%, gold rose by 16%. In 2020, during a brief recession, its price increased by almost 9%, and in the following months, by over 40%, reaching a historical high above $2,000 per ounce.
As noted by the World Gold Council, "geopolitical and economic uncertainty remains high in 2025, and it seems as likely as ever that central banks will again turn to gold as a stable strategic asset." Since the war in Ukraine, central banks have nearly doubled their annual gold purchases as part of a broader strategy to reduce exposure to the Western financial system and the dollar.
Its strength lies in perception: gold retains its value when currencies depreciate or markets weaken, with limited supply and its "issuance" not dependent on any country. While it does not pay interest, in times of fear or inflation, the priority is not to gain but not to lose. The most important thing is to reinforce defense, even if it means halting the attack. Additionally, gold has the advantage of being liquid: widely accepted, with intrinsic value, and easily bought and sold almost anywhere in the world.
As highlighted by the investment bank Renta 4, "gold typically acts as a safe haven asset and is usually a good option in this type of environment." They further mention the significant surge it has experienced in recent months: "trading near its historical highs, around $3,000 per ounce, after a 27% increase in 2024 and an additional 16% rise so far in 2025." This context necessitates considering the current value of the precious metal, a relevant factor when evaluating any market move.
Meanwhile, Bankinter has issued a cautious message in its weekly report: "Priority is protection. Everything else is secondary. Risks suddenly asymmetric. Reducing exposure." In other words, their experts believe that the most crucial aspect now is not to lose money, even if it means earning less. They refer to asymmetric risks because it is now more likely to lose significantly than to gain substantially: the market could plummet sharply, but any potential rises would be gentler. Hence, they have opted to reduce their invested funds and take a more conservative stance to safeguard the value of their investments against potential market downturns.
In this scenario, many investors face a significant decision: sell now to reduce risk and limit losses, or stay in the market awaiting a possible short-term recovery, a dilemma that generates uncertainty and tension.
Government Bonds: Stability with a Name
Government bonds, especially those issued by countries with solid economies, are also a common refuge. During the 2008 crisis, 20-year US Treasury bonds offered real yields close to 15%. And in 2020, when the pandemic paralyzed the world, their value increased by almost 20% between February and May. Renta4 adds: "in times of uncertainty, long-term high-quality government bonds (such as German or American) and gold are assets typically sought for refuge."
They are considered secure because despite not promising significant gains, they offer stability. And in turbulent times, that is invaluable. Investors often turn to bonds from the United States, Germany, or Switzerland. Moreover, they are liquid, easy to trade, and have public and transparent prices.
Defensive Sectors: Everyday Economy
In the stock market, there are also more stable sectors known as "defensive." These are the ones selling essential products and services: healthcare, food, electricity, water. Even in a recession, people continue to turn on lights, buy medicines, and do groceries.
During the 2008 crisis, the S&P 500 healthcare index dropped by 31%, compared to the general market's 45% decline. In April 2020, the healthcare sector decreased just over 5%, while the S&P 500 lost nearly 10%. The utilities sector also fared better: only a 6% drop compared to broader declines in other sectors. This time around, the performance has been similar. While the S&P 500 has fallen by 12% since the day after the tariff announcement, these sectors have retreated around 7%.
These are companies with predictable revenues, stable business models, and, in many cases, consistent dividends. Pharmaceuticals, for instance, continue to sell regardless of the economic cycle. And electric companies, with regulated tariffs, see little impact on their revenues. They are not immune to crises but tend to suffer less.
Off-the-Radar Refuges: Hard Currencies and Liquidity
Refuge is not always in the stock market. Sometimes, it is wiser to switch currencies or simply stay liquid, out of the market, in cash or in deposits with solvent institutions.
In this regard, currencies like the US dollar, euro, or Swiss franc have historically been safe havens. They are backed by strong economies and, under normal conditions, by solid institutions and responsible policies. However, the message from Washington today does not exactly convey stability.
The Swiss franc's case is a good example. During the euro crisis (2010-2012) - a period marked by doubts about the solvency of countries like Greece, Portugal, or Spain - its demand was so high that the Swiss central bank had to intervene to prevent excessive appreciation. Between January 2010 and August 2011, it appreciated by over 40% against the euro.
100 Swiss franc banknote specimen.www.snb.ch
Holding part of savings in a strong currency can help preserve purchasing power in times of inflation or devaluation. And in highly volatile contexts, having immediate liquidity - even if it does not yield returns - allows for quick and free action.
As always, the suitability of each option will depend on personal profile and economic conditions. In case of doubt, seeking professional guidance is the most prudent approach.