Donald Trump is beginning to see one of the flagship promises of his second presidential campaign on the verge of collapse. His peace proposal in Ukraine is not progressing, and Trump is starting to realize something that, from outside the White House, is very evident: Vladimir Putin has played him during these crucial weeks. The reality is that Zelensky accepted the unconditional 30-day ceasefire proposed by Washington, while Putin engaged in his typical mind games: a "yes but no" to feign interest, which was actually a flat-out refusal. This weekend, the Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, put words to the evidence and admitted that the energy ceasefire no longer exists and that the maritime ceasefire will not exist either.
The negotiations with Saudi Arabia have been a complete disaster from start to finish, a muddy terrain where the Russian autocrat maneuvers better than anyone else. No one ever knew the exact time the ceasefires were supposed to start, who was monitoring their compliance, or what protocols needed to be followed to return to a ceasefire if it broke at a certain point on the front line. There was no independent recorder to document the discussions or ensure transparency. This led to agreements being made with Kiev and different ones with Moscow. And even when agreements were made with Moscow, two different documents with different aspects of the meeting emerged depending on whether they were issued by the White House or the Kremlin. A clear self-sabotage.
Last Sunday, faced with the evidence that Russia does not want to stop the war and has only used this dialogue table to buy time and try to gain advantages from the outset, Trump said he was "angry" at Putin's attitude and stated that he is considering "adding more sanctions on Russia," which already faces severe financial penalties, and using tariffs to undermine its oil exports. Specifically, this involves tariffs of 25% to 50% for countries trading with Moscow's oil and gas. In other words, a significant blow to an economy, the Kremlin's, already worn down by three years of war.
This is the first time throughout the negotiation that Washington has issued a threat towards the Kremlin, as previous ones had been directed at Zelensky, referred to as a "dictator without elections" by Trump and besieged in the White House by an unprecedented and embarrassing quarrel. Trump is considering issuing an ultimatum to Putin to accept the 30-day ceasefire unconditionally.
This idea may have arisen from his conversation last Monday with the President of Finland, Alexander Stubb, who later shared details about his meeting with Trump. According to Stubb, President Trump asked him if Putin could be trusted. "I told him that he could not," said Stubb, emphasizing the need for a ceasefire and a firm date. He added that Finland believes April 20 would be an appropriate date for a total and unconditional ceasefire.
Trump seems to have derived his ultimatum idea from that conversation. Additionally, Stubb told him that Putin needs a strong sanctions mechanism against Russia as an incentive for the ceasefire, and that this system should be in place if Russia does not accept the ceasefire or violates it. "[Trump] is quite impatient with Russia's actions, this kind of intrigue and delays regarding the ceasefire. I tried to explain to him that this is completely normal behavior for Russia. First, we negotiate something, and then the conditions change again," he said. This ultimatum, according to some sources, is expected around April 20.
Putin has attempted something risky, trying to take advantage not only of the negotiation for peace conditions, but also of the 30-day ceasefire to start negotiations. Among the conditions demanded by the Kremlin was the reconnection of the Russian Agricultural Bank or Rosselkhozbank to the Swift system, something that was not even within the United States' control, as it required the European Union's involvement. Of course, Brussels, excluded from the negotiations, stated that it was not the time to lift any sanctions on Russia. And there, before it even began, the maritime ceasefire died. It must be acknowledged at this point that Vladimir Putin has not lied to anyone: for three years, he has been repeating that he will only stop the war if negotiations are conducted on his terms, demands that exceed even those made to Ukraine and would also affect Eastern European countries. In other words, unattainable conditions.
The situation is unsettling because Russia refuses the ceasefire unless negotiations are conducted on its terms, terms that Ukraine and Europe cannot accept, as they not only amount to a surrender by the Ukrainian state, which has not been defeated by the Kremlin on the battlefield, but also a NATO withdrawal from Eastern Europe at a time of maximum alert due to Russia's aggressive stance, making any ceasefire impossible.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov puts it this way: "Moscow cannot accept the US proposals for a ceasefire in Ukraine without addressing what it considers the root causes of the war," as if the root causes of the invasion were not Russian imperialism and its expansionist ambitions.
But Putin has achieved one thing: further dividing Americans and Ukrainians in the process. Now Trump is demanding that Zelensky renegotiate the treaty on rare earth minerals in a much more draconian manner than before. Now, the magnate demands that the Ukrainian president agree to de facto hand over control of all the country's natural resources in exchange for nothing. A colonial attitude from a White House that, during Joe Biden's term, never suggested that the provided weaponry should have economic repercussions. Initially, Zelensky refuses to sign it. "You could have big problems," Donald Trump threatened him.
Leon Panetta, former US Secretary of Defense and CIA Director, stated yesterday: "This is not peace through strength. This is peace through weakness."
In his effort to increase pressure, Vladimir Putin has just signed a decree for Mandatory Military Service for the spring campaign. The Russian army will call up 160,000 young people aged 18 to 30, in an effort to enhance the country's military capabilities. For comparison, in the spring campaign of 2021, they called up 130,000.
Meanwhile, Finland announced yesterday that it is withdrawing from the Ottawa Convention on Anti-Personnel Mines, following in the footsteps of Lithuania and Poland, who are mining their borders with Russia and Belarus with these explosives.