Neither the Budget, nor the U.S. tariffs on agriculture, nor the amnesty for Carles Puigdemont, not even the starting gun for the unique financing of Catalonia, or the regional debt relief. The date marked in red on the 2025 calendar by both the PSOE and the PP is the NATO summit, to be held from June 24 to 26 in The Hague (Netherlands). That will be the turning point that will definitively shape Spanish defense policy.
Pedro Sánchez's team is confident in reaching the Atlantic Alliance conclave with a new European agreement that allows for direct transfers and not just loans, to achieve a defense spending equivalent to 2% of the GDP. And the PP is sure that the organization led by Mark Rutte will "twist the government's arm," as Spain is currently the most lagging NATO member in defense investment percentage, with only 1.28% of its GDP.
In fact, the leadership in Génova has "direct information" on NATO's plans through their European PP community leaders. They have conveyed that Rutte will be more demanding with Spain and will require investing "more than 2%," and at a faster pace. In fact, the private message is that they must even aim for over 3%, in the long term: "North of 3%," as heard from EL MUNDO from community and Spanish sources involved in the discussions.
This message aligns with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who warned in Strasbourg that member states must increase their defense and security spending by at least an additional 1.5 percentage points of GDP. In fact, all leaders consulted by the Spanish PP speak of the "inescapable" need to exceed 3%, which is also what they have subscribed to in the European PP.
Sources from Génova consulted on this matter during the Interparliamentary of the PP held this weekend in Seville, affirm that the main opposition party agrees with NATO's thresholds and recall that Rutte has already begun to implement this pressure.
In fact, the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization stated on Thursday that Spain, among other European countries, aspires to reach the requirement of allocating the equivalent of 2% of GDP to defense spending this summer. What the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, had publicly communicated so far is his commitment to accelerate the increase in investment to reach this goal before 2029, without setting a detailed timeline. Therefore, La Moncloa clarified that Spain is "working to reach the 2% commitment as soon as possible," but without "any specific commitment" regarding dates. "We are still working on it. When there is something, we will communicate it to the public," they pointed out.
The PP's leadership team asserts that they will emphasize that Sánchez lacks support to meet these obligations because his partners vehemently refuse to increase military investment and because he has not "extended a hand" to the populares, who are currently the only ones who could help him out of the situation. "Feijóo sees in defense the paradigm of a broken government," they point out.
Just in case there were any doubts, the same PP sources stress that there are currently no elements for an agreement of State with the PSOE. The Génova leadership does not foresee Sánchez reversing his refusal to negotiate with the PP as a priority. And even less likely is the scenario where the government presents the 2025 Budgets and includes new defense spending in them.
For the populares, NATO's pressure is "an additional weighty reason" to process the Budgets. However, the government has already begun to reallocate some investment funds to count as defense spending and plans to use the remaining 3.200 million from the ordinary contingency fund. Will that be enough? The reality is that "President Sánchez must increase military spending by 10,000 to 12,000 million euros in the coming months to reach the 33,500 million euros" that would bring Spain's total expenditure to 2% of its GDP, as explained by the PP in the initiative -reported by this newspaper- to be presented in the Congress to force a vote by Sánchez's parliamentary partners on presenting the Budgets in the Cortes or not.
This proposal urges the government to "authorize the necessary procedures to present the General State Budgets before June 2025, in order to include the military and defense spending commitments assumed by the Government." That is, just before the red-marked date of the NATO summit. June is the key to everything.
Sánchez aims to reach that date with accounting changes, credit extensions, and European transfers that allow him to meet spending objectives without eroding a single cent from social policies, as other progressive governments like the British have announced.