In certain aspects, the Russian regime appears more transparent than any other in the world. Dmitry Medvedev, the theatrical former president of Russia and vice president of the country's Security Council, published a diplomatically enlightening message last week: "The phone call between Presidents Putin and Trump demonstrated a well-known idea: there are only Russia and the United States at the dining table. The menu includes light appetizers: Brussels sprouts, British fish and chips, and Parisian rooster. The main course is a Kiev-style chop. Enjoy your meal!". In a few words, he makes his ideal clear: negotiations at the tables of Washington and Moscow. Europe and Ukraine are on the menu.
In this context of the reissue of the Ribbentrop-Molotov agreements of 1939 between the Nazis and the USSR to divide Poland, everything Ukraine desires can be summed up in one word: independence. For many Ukrainian historians, this is just another chapter in their struggle for independence against Russia, dating back to the Cossacks' fight against the tsars. Therefore, in its fight against the Russian invasion since February 24, 2022, Ukraine is fighting for its survival as a state.
The Zelensky government, which has been denouncing Russian violations of the Minsk agreements and even the Budapest Protocol of 1994, which recognized the country's sovereignty in exchange for its nuclear arsenal, aims to preserve its state born from the fall of the USSR.
Furthermore, it needs tools to protect it, given the aggressiveness of the Russians since 2014, the year Ukraine broke free from Moscow's influence. To survive, Kiev demands strong security guarantees in this process. For Zelensky, the best option would be to join NATO, but for now, that option seems to be off the table as one of the red lines for the ceasefire.
Another option being considered, always without direct U.S. involvement, is the deployment of troops from Ukraine's allied countries, known as the Coalition of the Willing and led by France and the United Kingdom, with soldiers from around 30 countries joining. This mission, although rejected by the Kremlin, is one of the few tangible attempts to provide Ukraine with a credible deterrence so that Russia does not attempt another invasion when it rearms. Sources in London mention around 10,000 troops, a somewhat limited deployment to cover such a broad front, but it would be accompanied by Eurofighter aircraft and ships.
Another issue Ukraine desires, and its government has set as a red line, is to maintain its current army without allowing Russia to dictate any partial disarmament that would leave the country vulnerable to a nuclear power that caused the invasion and could continue to strengthen its army at will. For example, Ukraine has been receiving F16 fighter jets from its European allies for some time, considered crucial to deter Russia in the near future. By 2026, it will have at least 70 aircraft of this model and an equal number of French Mirage 2000 planes, highly competent for this task. Russia would like to limit all these forces in a peace agreement, but Kiev will not return any of these fighter jets.
Kiev will also not allow Russian interference in its electoral system or in determining its government. Russia's view on Ukrainian sovereignty is different. In fact, it cannot even be considered sovereignty: Russia wants to dictate who should lead Ukraine, with whom it can form alliances, and what level of militarization it should have. Ukraine will also not entertain any division of its territory like Cyprus, between a supposed eastern and western Ukraine. Apart from the territory occupied by Russia, no further dividing lines will be drawn.
Zelensky is the president because the people voted for him in the second round against Petro Poroshenko with 72% of the votes in 2019. Furthermore, he remains in office due to martial law that allows for no elections during wartime and was massively approved in the Ukrainian Rada. Russia, which does not consider Zelensky a legitimate ruler, has always aimed to reinstall a puppet ruler like Viktor Yanukovych, leader of the Party of Regions, who fled to Russia during the Maidan revolution in 2014.
Ukraine demands the return not only of captured military personnel during the invasion but also of civilians, many of them children, estimated at 19,500 minors, mostly from the Berdiansk and Mariupol areas, who were sent to Russia undergoing identity changes and military education. In total, 3.4 million Ukrainian inhabitants, including 555,000 children, were under Russian occupation, according to reports from Russian media in mid-August 2022.
In summary, Ukraine wants to survive and remain Ukraine. This is precisely what Putin does not want to happen.