Ukraine's allies are planning a limited military deployment of around 20,000 soldiers, with naval and air support, to protect the critical infrastructure and exports of the country. This is the proposal that was discussed by about 30 senior military officials from 27 countries at the Northwood Headquarters, northwest of London, as reported by the British public television and radio broadcaster BBC. This meeting marked the first specific gathering to plan the deployment of soldiers in Ukraine after a ceasefire agreement is reached between Ukraine and Russia.
The meeting was closed by the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, who summarized it by stating, "this is turning a political intention into a reality." The political intention is not only to achieve a potential peace agreement but also to ensure that it is "defended." Starmer poured cold water on the optimism of U.S. President Donald Trump by cautiously stating "if there is a peace agreement." The key point is that, according to Starmer, this agreement "should be defended." Otherwise, "Putin will violate it. We know this because it has happened before. And I have no doubt it will happen again." For this reason, the soldiers of the volunteer coalition will be coordinated with those of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Currently, it is unknown how they would react if Russia were to attack Ukraine again.
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The details of the deployment reported by the BBC, which have not been confirmed or denied by the British government led by Keir Starmer or any other coalition member, suggest that the number of troops on the ground in Ukraine will be roughly equivalent to a division of the British, French, or U.S. armies. Additionally, there will be a naval force to ensure that Ukraine can trade with the rest of the world. It has not been clarified yet whether the aircraft providing air cover for the deployment will be based in Ukraine or neighboring countries.
It is also unknown which countries will send troops, although it is estimated that very few of the 27 coalition members will do so. Currently, only Great Britain and France have shown determination to do so, while others, such as Australia, are willing to consider that possibility. However, on Thursday, the 'Financial Times' reported that Starmer seems to have backtracked and is now only considering deploying fighter jets and warships, but not soldiers from the Army. Great Britain and France are the only two countries in the coalition with early warning aircraft, which would be essential in the mission to detect threats from both Russian missiles and aircraft.
Therefore, the deployment would be modest. It is a much smaller force than the 200,000 soldiers requested by Ukraine and also less than the 50,000 that some sources had considered necessary to ensure that Russia does not invade the country for a third time. It would also be located far from the 1,000-kilometer front line with Russia - which opposes the deployment directly - to prevent Russia from attacking Ukraine again.
The number of troops is very similar to the number the U.S. has in South Korea to protect that country from a North Korean attack. In the past two decades, U.S. soldiers in South Korea have also been relocated from the Demilitarized Zone that divides the two countries to more distant regions away from a potential frontline of hostilities.
Yesterday's meeting discussed the technical-military details (to use the expression of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin when he began threatening to invade Ukraine in 2021) of the deployment, as well as its coordination with the Ukrainian Armed Forces once some form of armistice is reached, something that U.S. President Donald Trump hopes to achieve soon, although his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodimir Zelenski, believes it will likely take the whole year. During the U.S. election campaign, Trump promised to achieve peace in Ukraine on the first day of his term.
The Prime Minister's intervention at the military summit occurred. The British government has reported that Starmer visited the nuclear submarine Vanguard, which arrived this week at its base in Clyde, Scotland, after 204 consecutive days patrolling submerged. The Vanguard, capable of carrying 192 thermonuclear bombs in 16 missiles, has thus surpassed by nine days the record of another ship of the same type achieved in September 2023. Starmer's visit to the submarine also carries strong symbolic significance: the last time a British Prime Minister was on one of these vessels, which are the UK's only nuclear weapons launch system, was Conservative David Cameron in 2013.
The fact that the Vanguard broke the record of its predecessor - whose name is not public - is, however, also a sign of a more concerning reality for British defense that is repeated in most countries meeting at Northwood: their Armed Forces are shrinking every day. For this reason, nuclear submarines are setting records patrolling.
The force that Margaret Thatcher sent to the Falklands to fight against Argentina in 1982 was larger than the entire current British Navy. Therefore, it is unclear, for example, how the United Kingdom will deploy its ships in the Black Sea facing Ukraine, Russia, and Turkey once some form of peace agreement is reached. London has already made it clear that it wants its Navy to be present in that region as part of the peacekeeping force.
Ultimately, what is at stake is the rearmament of Europe, now that the U.S. seems willing to disengage from the continent and even indirectly support Russia and political parties sympathetic to Vladimir Putin. The EU is even willing to allow non-European countries into its emerging defense structure. Canada, according to the U.S. newspaper New York Times, is negotiating with the EU for entry into the European Defense Fund, a system coordinated by the EU with 150 billion euros to distribute to military equipment companies. If the negotiations reach an agreement, Canadian companies will be able to benefit from these contracts, something that the UK, Turkey, and the U.S. have unsuccessfully requested.
Canada is redirecting its foreign and security policy towards the EU due to the constant threats of annexation made by Donald Trump since he took office on January 20. The new Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, has broken tradition and instead of making his first trip to Washington, he has visited London and Paris.