On March 23, 1983, Ronald Reagan, President of the United States and former Western star, addressed his fellow citizens on television to talk about a project that was going to change History forever. It was the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), designed to protect the country from any atomic attack... from outer space. Here we go! To be honest, Reagan's speech caused a general stir. First, because it mixed up the ideas of nuclear deterrence, balance of terror, and assured mutual destruction that had determined Soviet-American relations during the Cold War. And second, because the development of the Pentagon's missile shield required a constellation of over 2,000 military satellites equipped with weaponry that had not yet been invented and whose cost equaled almost half of the US GDP of that year.
The Strategic Defense Initiative was quickly dismissed by engineers and researchers as a speculative, science-fiction proposal. The press ironically dubbed the American space project as Star Wars, capitalizing on the success of the Jedi saga. The paradox is that the collapse of the USSR at the end of the decade made its materialization unnecessary. This is how the X-ray laser, one of the technologies that were supposed to support the project, ended up being used in the early detection of breast cancer.
Four decades after Reagan's announcement, geopolitical tension has shifted from space -lunar colonization is not on the agenda today- to another location that until recently was almost as inscrutable and mysterious: the seabed. The global network of telecommunications and energy, which extends through the ocean depths like a nervous system, has become in the 21st century a desirable target of hybrid warfare: the one fought through alternative means to conventional armies and includes coordinated cyber-attacks, the instrumentalization of irregular immigrants at border posts, disinformation campaigns on social networks... or the sabotage of critical infrastructures. As sensitive as the undersea cables through which data flows enabling any digital operation related to work, consumption, or leisure: from sending the last email of the day to paying for sneakers via an app, to watching the latest episode of the trending series. And as essential for citizen well-being as the pipes through which gas flows, preventing millions of homes in the old continent from turning into igloos in winter.
The boom in teleworking driven by Covid and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have highlighted the strategic importance of this submerged network even for the most clueless about fiber optics. The war triggered by Moscow, in fact, has shown how crucial it is to monitor and protect these connections. "All these undersea infrastructures, like others in Western countries, have been subject to incidents," confirms Félix Arteaga, Principal Researcher in Security and Defense at the Elcano Royal Institute. "It's not a wave, but a trickle," he adds regarding the accumulation of episodes recorded in the last six months, specifically those related to cuts or breaks in undersea cables.
The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) estimates that between 150 and 200 incidents affecting only data-transmitting cables occur worldwide each year. In 2023, this United Nations agency recorded exactly two hundred cases. How many of them were or are intentional? It's hard to know. In addition to the typical cases -failures in anchorages, accidents related to fishing, or damage caused by natural phenomena such as earthquakes or hurricanes- sabotage could now be added. The British Royal United Services Institute has even suggested that the frequency indicates some form of human intervention.
Regardless of whether it's pure chance or material for a John Le Carré novel, NATO began using the Northwood Headquarters (UK) as the base for Baltic Sentry in January: the monitoring and deterrence operation with which the Allied Maritime Command has strengthened its military presence in the region precisely to safeguard critical undersea infrastructure.
"The Baltic Sea is a vital center for trade and energy transport connecting numerous allied nations. The sea serves as a conduit for energy supply, particularly natural gas and oil, and supports key undersea cables transmitting data between Europe, North America, and other continents," details the Alliance on its website. "These elements are crucial not only for the region's economies but also for the security of NATO allies and partners. Given the increasing reliance on undersea cables and pipelines, protecting this critical infrastructure is a constant priority for NATO".
Just a few days ago, the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, urged by Spain's international partners to increase its military spending, admitted that our country will have to invest more to address "hybrid attacks." In the same vein, the Minister of Economy, Carlos Cuerpo, has recently also called for promoting the concept of Defense "in broad terms" and elevating it to "economic security". This will practically involve allocating substantial economic and human resources to safeguard facilities such as data centers, cable mooring stations -like those of operators AFR-IX in Barcelona and Telxius in Sopelana (Vizcaya)- or communication and energy hubs.
"They are essential assets and a huge opportunity to be at the forefront of the digital economy. Cutting an undersea cable is as hostile as bombing a power plant," summarizes José María Guilleuma, Director of Data Center at Colliers and an expert in the telecommunications sector after working at Telefónica Infra. "Global finances and data transmission rely on an expensive-to-deploy and complex-to-maintain physical infrastructure," he notes about a network with much lower latency or response time than satellite. The second chapter of the new National Maritime Security Strategy, approved by the National Security Council in May 2024, already identified the risks and threats to maritime security, while emphasizing that "hybrid strategies occupy the conceptual center of the risk map".
On page 44 of the dossier prepared by the Real Instituto Elcano regarding the Spanish presidency of the EU in the second semester of 2023, it emphasizes the exposure of the network.
The document mentions the Russian military spy ship Yantar, equipped with two small exploration submarines, causing concern among Americans when it sailed near Cuba in 2015, where an important transatlantic cable is laid.
According to a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published in August 2024, there are 1.2 million kilometers of cables on the seabed. This is approximately 450 strands that could encircle the globe 32 times. The Iberian Peninsula is surrounded by about ten of these cables, including Marea - connecting Virginia Beach (USA) with Sopelana - and 2Africa - running from Carcavelos (Portugal) to Sant Adrià de Besòs (Barcelona) after circling the entire African continent.
Due to its geographical location and the growth of the data center industry due to cheap land and clean energy, the peninsula is among the main international nodes for these critical infrastructures. Arteaga points to the blowing up of the Nordstream on September 26, 2022, as the starting point of the current escalation of actions in the gray zone. Two explosions rendered the controversial pipeline transporting natural gas from Russia to Western Europe inoperable, leading to several leaks southeast of the Danish island of Bornholm.
Although initially considered an act of sabotage by the Kremlin at a time when Europe was debating how to reduce its dependence on hydrocarbons from the Urals, a German prosecutor's investigation attributed the events to a Ukrainian citizen. The "drip" has not stopped since then. Several Russian vessels have been involved in incidents in the Baltic Sea related to the interconnection network in northwest Europe. Practices in which Chinese ships have also been involved. In those same waters and in the Taiwan Strait, the other hot spot on the planet and the main Sino-American friction point for global hegemony.
Let's review the chronology in flash format. Could the next major military operation start underwater? "It could be," responds historian Niall Ferguson, author of best-selling essays such as Civilization: The West and the Rest (2012) and Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire (2016, both in Debate).
"There is also the possibility that it has not started yet because we have not realized that Taiwan is being sliced like a sausage. If you cut off the island's communications and make it increasingly difficult to enter and exit - whether it be people or goods - we are facing a progressive and stealthy blockade."
It is then better understood that in the Baltic Sentry operation, allied warships, submarines, and aircraft have been mobilized, supported by advanced technology such as specialized sonar systems and unmanned underwater vehicles. "Above all, to facilitate attribution in case of another incident. Because, of course, in areas with heavy maritime traffic, it is very difficult to attribute it to someone who has not been caught red-handed with the cables," says Arteaga.
"Suspiciously, the damaged or intercepted goods are always from the same countries, and this has been assumed by the West. It is part of the actions that Russia and China routinely take in hybrid warfare. Just as we have become accustomed to cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns during election times, the threat to critical infrastructures is now part of normality."
"With the aggravating factor that a cable does not only pass through a territory controlled by a State but through oceans governed by international agreements and laws," emphasizes Javier Borràs, a researcher and editor at CIDOB specializing in the impact of emerging technologies on democracy and geopolitical competition.
And it is not the only important legal nuance. "All these cables are owned by private companies. In the end, it is quite a complex issue."
The origin of submarine cabling, made possible by the discovery of gutta-percha as an insulating material, is described by Stefan Zweig in The First Word Across the Ocean, a story collected in Moments of History (Acantilado).
It was the telegraphic laying that connected the 40 kilometers between Calais (France) and Dover (England) in 1851. Almost 175 years have passed since the birth of modern telecommunications. According to CSIS, four companies currently dominate almost the entire market: the American SubCom, the French Alcatel Submarine Networks, the Japanese Nippon Electric Company, and the Chinese HMN Technologies. However, digital giants like Meta - parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp - have decided to develop their own infrastructures.
Through the ambitious Waterworth project, they will lay a 50,000-kilometer submarine cable across five continents to provide "first-rate connectivity" to the United States, India, Brazil, South Africa, New Zealand... With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, particularly demanding in resources and capabilities, global digital traffic is expected to continue increasing in the coming years. China has chosen to extend its own network to avoid depending on American facilities and thus evade potential sanctions from the US federal government and monitoring by its intelligence services.
"For decades, we have seen global networks as something that would bring peace and prosperity. However, the infrastructures that support world trade have become weapons," admits Newman, a political scientist and professor at Georgetown University. "States are increasingly trying to protect themselves, but it is not easy. The existing infrastructure generates enormous economic benefits, and very few countries can afford to try to be self-sufficient. As a result, citizens and companies will have to prepare for many more pressure campaigns, while states should work to diversify their operations and avoid bottlenecks."
Could Spanish waters become a scenario with as many incidents as those in the Baltic? "The Spanish coastline is almost 8,000 kilometers, one of the largest in Europe. It could be a target, but we are not yet at the heart of geopolitical tensions," reports Guilleuma.
"For now, it is not such a hot spot," agrees Borràs. "We have entered a scenario that until now, and never better said, had been submerged," adds Arteaga. ".
The monitoring operations we are seeing in the Baltic will eventually be seen in any passage where cables multiply, such as the Strait of Gibraltar."
So far, our critical infrastructures have not been affected. But... "It would be short-sighted to think that Spain is immune," intervenes Professor Newman again. "Many key business processes are interconnected. If Deutsche Bank cannot connect, it will affect Banco Santander. But equally important is what the cables represent. It is a new way of thinking about globalization; one in which connectivity is not only a source of prosperity but also vulnerability."