Ukraine wants its invader to withdraw and a lasting peace. The United States wants peace because it wants the war to end to avoid spending more money, and it is becoming clear that it does not care much about the conditions in which its ally will be left. And Russia does not want peace but "complete surrender" from its adversary, to keep the occupied territory, ensure in writing that Kyiv will not join NATO, and, if possible, that Volodymyr Zelensky be replaced by someone more compliant or less hostile.
Throughout this week, the positions, which were always clear in the case of the two armies at war, have continued to take shape. On Thursday, Donald Trump said that Ukraine was already ready to sit at the table and that they were indeed discussing with them which territories they would lose and which they would retain, whether they would keep control of the Zaporiya nuclear power plant or if it would be a prize for Moscow. And while he urged Putin to accept a ceasefire, he did not use the same urgent and aggressive tone that he constantly uses with Kyiv. However, this Friday, things have gotten even worse for Ukrainian and European interests.
In a message on his social network, the President of the United States has once again surprised all the actors involved, including his NATO partners. Well, everyone except the Kremlin. "Yesterday we had very good and productive discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and there are many possibilities for this horrible and bloody war to finally come to an end," he said, referring to the discussions that his special envoy for conflicts, Steve Witkoff, had with Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
"BUT, AT THIS MOMENT, THOUSANDS OF UKRAINIAN TROOPS ARE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY THE RUSSIAN ARMY AND IN A TERRIBLE AND VULNERABLE SITUATION. I have earnestly requested President Putin to spare their lives. This would be a horrible massacre, unlike anything seen since World War II. God bless them all!" he concluded his surprising message.
It is not just another tweet, not just another slip of the tongue. Donald Trump, ignoring what is happening on the ground, the intelligence reports of his country, the Pentagon's data, what the Ukrainians tell him, and all the allies, has bought into Putin's narrative hook, line, and sinker, which he probably told Witkoff, a real estate businessman who has become Trump's geopolitical right-hand man, a guy with experience in closing deals but no experience in diplomacy, geopolitics, or military affairs.
There are not thousands of Ukrainian troops surrounded. They are not at the mercy of Putin and about to be massacred. And yet, the President of the United States believes it, or at least says it, which may be the same in practical terms if he makes decisions based on that information. "The world is watching as Russia is deliberately imposing conditions that only complicate and prolong the process," Zelensky denounced on his social media. "Russia is the only party that wants the war to continue and diplomacy to collapse," he added.
The Ukrainian high command immediately corrected Trump, explaining that there are no encirclements, that it is a lie fabricated by the Russians. "Reports about the alleged encirclement of Ukrainian units by the enemy in the Kursk region are false and were invented by Russia for political manipulation and to exert pressure on Ukraine and its partners. The situation has remained practically unchanged over the last day. Combat operations within the operational zone of the "Kursk" group of forces continue. Units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces have successfully regrouped, withdrawn to more advantageous defensive positions, and are fulfilling their assigned missions in the Kursk region," the command explained in a message on Telegram, reiterating that while "there have been 13 combat engagements in the Kursk direction, there is no threat of encirclement to our units."
But if Washington takes it as true, it could completely influence the negotiations. Hours later, in a speech at the Department of Justice, Trump said that the talks are "very tough" but reiterated his optimism. "Now we seek a ceasefire with Russia, and we have had very positive discussions about it. We have received very good responses. I can assure you that there would have been no war if I were president. I talked a lot with President Putin about this. I told him: 'Don't do it, don't do it.' I won't tell you what the consequences were (...) We had a good relationship, a professional relationship, and he respects our country, and I think we have had very good results. I didn't want to say it until just before coming here, but I have been given very good news, but we will have to see what happens," he cryptically pointed out.
Because to date, Zelensky is already clear about what he has to concede, pending the details or security guarantees he demands for the day after, to be reassured that there will be no further invasion at any other time. But Putin has not committed to anything absolutely. On the contrary. And if his big concession is to spare the lives of those who are not surrounded or prisoners, it will be difficult for Ukraine to accept anything. This will again be an excuse for Washington to tighten the noose while only talking about vague economic sanctions, as the G7 members also reiterated today.
Their statement, published after a meeting in Canada, says that new sanctions will be discussed if the Kremlin does not fully implement the ceasefire, but U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, admitted that he is not very clear if Putin is simply buying time to regain even more conquered territory while Kyiv fights with one hand tied behind its back. "The question is: are we really moving towards a ceasefire or is it a delaying tactic? I'm not going to answer that because I can't define it right now," Rubio admitted.
In a lengthy intervention this Friday, Putin has given more clues, demanding that for a ceasefire, or a peace negotiation, Ukrainian soldiers "must surrender" to his troops, in exchange for which he promises, with the confidence that comes from the word of someone who has massacred civilians and committed war crimes, that he "will spare their lives and treat them with humanity." Thus, both leaders maintain a version of what is happening in Kursk, an area that Kyiv's troops partially recaptured last summer. Despite the outcry from analysts and the Ukrainian army.
In public today, Putin has said what he told Witkoff in private yesterday, insisting that for any kind of truce, Zelensky must order his units to lay down their arms, not even to retreat further, as in recent weeks Russia has gained a clear advantage. To a large extent, this is due to the White House's decision to suspend U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. This morning, "aerial attacks, such as gliders and drones, have intensified in border areas," Volodymyr Artiukhin, head of the Sumy Regional Military Administration, admitted on Facebook, ordering the mandatory evacuation of eight small villages.
What Europeans are wondering right now is whether Putin and Trump spoke directly yesterday, with the coverage of his envoy's trip, or if everything was through him. The Kremlin's spokesperson pointed out this Friday that in his meeting with Witkoff, the Russian president "conveyed additional information and signals to President Trump," but without detailing what he meant. And he added that it is vital for them that the two leaders address the issue directly. "After Mr. Witkoff conveys all the information received to his head of state, we will determine the timing of the conversation. Both parties understand that such a conversation is necessary," the spokesperson said in his daily briefing.
"Of course, Putin is afraid to tell President Trump directly that he wants to continue this war and keep killing Ukrainians. Putin often does this: he does not outright say no, but he prolongs things and makes reasonable solutions impossible," Zelensky concluded, desperate about the direction the talks are taking in which the two great powers seem to be deciding their future without his opinion.