As expected, the President of Portugal, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, announced on Thursday night the call for the third legislative elections in the country in three years after the Assembly of the Republic rejected by a majority of almost two-thirds the center-right Government of Luís Montenegro. After meeting with the Council of State throughout the afternoon, Rebelo de Sousa announced the dissolution of the Portuguese Parliament and the call for elections. All Council members were unanimous in requesting the elections, as were all parties with parliamentary representation.
The new election date will be May 18, just 14 months after the previous elections. The risk now, as many Portuguese analysts point out, is that the electoral outcome may be similar to that of a year ago, keeping the country in the cycle of parliamentary instability that has led to the current crisis.
Rebelo de Sousa reviewed the crisis that led the Government to present a vote of confidence that it lost by a wide margin in Parliament and expressed his desire for the elections to bring stability to Portugal, a stability that has been lacking in the past year: "the President of the Republic is the first interested in ensuring stability."
The origin of this political crisis lies in the private businesses of the Prime Minister. The company he founded in 2021, Spinumviva, which until a few weeks ago still had its headquarters at Montenegro's residence and does not even have employees on payroll, has continued to make money at the expense of companies with significant economic interests derived from government contracts.
When Montenegro took over the leadership of the Social Democratic Party in June 2022, he transferred the company to his wife, with whom he shares marital assets. And everything continued like this until less than a month ago when this alleged conflict of interest was exposed by several Portuguese newspapers.
Now, the Prosecutor's Office is investigating several complaints on this matter and has initiated a preventive investigation against the Prime Minister. So far, according to the Attorney General, no solid evidence has been found to open a formal investigation and charge Montenegro with alleged crimes.
With all these elements against him, the leader of the Social Democratic Party is willing to run as a candidate again and has the support of the entire party, as evidenced by the Wednesday night meeting of the PSD leadership, which expressed full support for him. As stated in several interviews by the Portuguese Prime Minister, he is willing to be a candidate even if he is charged in the two months remaining until the elections.
The PSD's strategy in these early days is to place all responsibility for the electoral call on the Socialist Party (PS), as they rejected Montenegro's offer to withdraw the confidence issue and voted against it.
As stated by the President of the Assembly of the Republic, José Pedro Aguiar-Branco, from the PSD, the leader of the Socialists, Pedro Nuno Santos, "has done more harm to the country in three weeks than Chega [the far-right party] in six years."
Both Montenegro and several of his ministers believe that repeating the elections will strengthen the ruling coalition, as several Portuguese media outlets suggest. They believe that the Socialist Party (PS) and its leader are not prepared for the elections, and that Chega is in a particularly bad moment following the outbreak of several scandals involving sexual abuse or alleged corruption by some of its middle-ranking members.
Montenegro has chosen to end the Spinumviva company scandal crisis by presenting the vote of confidence, a move condemned to failure in Parliament that would lead to inevitable elections. All to avoid enduring the ordeal that would have been the creation of a parliamentary investigation committee, proposed by the PS, which would have further tarnished his image and that of his Government. Additionally, it could have brought to light more shady information about Montenegro's private businesses.
The PS also did not want elections at this time. But socialist sources indicate that it was preferable to maintain their refusal to give confidence to the Government rather than reach a pact with the PSD at a time of political discredit and with this alleged corruption case growing in the press and in the courts.
Contrary to the PSD's belief, the polls do not yet indicate a clear winner. Some, like the one published by Diário de Notícias on Tuesday, give the PS a lead of up to five points. Others still predict victory for the ruling party.
Everything will depend on how the political crisis evolves in the next two months and if information implicating Montenegro emerges.
Portugal has been facing the worst period of political instability since the Carnation Revolution of 1974 for the past two years. The rise of the populist right-wing party Chega and the virtual tie between the two main center-right and center-left parties have led to an almost ungovernable configuration of the Assembly of the Republic.
The acute economic problems faced by a large part of the population, the deterioration of public health and education, and the inability of many citizens to afford housing in Lisbon or other major cities - whether through purchase or rent - have led the country to a situation of distrust and maximum alienation of citizens from traditional politics, as many analysts point out. Furthermore, the polarization and fragmentation of the Parliament have prevented a strong government capable of implementing significant reforms in the past two years.
In the meetings Rebelo de Sousa held on Wednesday with spokespersons from all parliamentary groups, unanimity prevailed. Although no one officially wants elections, the Government's fall with such decisiveness in the Assembly of the Republic vote has led everyone to now bet on the third elections in three years. The other option, for the President to appoint another candidate proposed by the majority coalition (PSD-CDS) as Prime Minister, was practically ruled out by the President himself before the confidence vote debate.
The censure Montenegro received in Parliament was more than clear: 142 out of 230 deputies (62%) voted against the vote of confidence, which only received support from 88 (38%): the 80 deputies from the ruling coalition and eight from the Liberal Initiative.