Donald Trump stated on Wednesday that "now everything depends on Russia" and that if Putin refuses to accept his ceasefire, "there are things that could be done in the financial realm that would be very bad" for Moscow. Meanwhile, his negotiating team is arriving in Moscow to inform him about the agreement signed with Ukraine in Saudi Arabia.
The plane of the U.S. President's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, has already landed in Russia, as reported by the state news agency TASS on Thursday.
Russia is not in a hurry to respond to the offer, but Trump desires a quick peace, something very difficult to achieve to stop such a complex conflict that began long before the large-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. In Ukraine, nobody trusts Russia. And in Russia, the most radical factions also do not want to stop now. It is symbolic that, in this context, Putin reappeared on Thursday dressed in military uniform during a visit to a command center in Kursk.
Meanwhile, Poland has confirmed the resumption of the supply of U.S. military equipment to Ukraine from the Polish logistics center in Rzeszów, while the U.S. aerospace technology company Maxar has resumed providing services to resume the transfer of intelligence data to Kiev. At least what was agreed upon by the U.S. is being fulfilled for now.
For now, the Kremlin has not responded: "We assume that, as stated in Jeddah, Secretary of State Rubio and National Security Advisor (Mike) Waltz will inform us through various channels about the details of the negotiations and what was agreed upon," said Dmitry Peskov, presidential spokesperson. The U.S. Secretary of State also stated: "We all look forward to the Russian response and strongly urge them to consider ending all hostilities." "If they say no [to the ceasefire], obviously we will have to analyze everything and somehow determine our position in the world and what their true intentions are. I think if they say no, it will tell us a lot about their goals and mindset."
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian operation in Kursk completed its final steps. In the early hours of Wednesday, Kiev's troops withdrew from their positions in the city of Sudzha, the largest in the area, gradually reaching the border region of Sumy. Despite the fierceness of the recent battles, the withdrawal was carried out gradually and without significant casualties, unlike other operations such as the exit from Bajmut, although the region's roads are now filled with armored vehicles and vehicles of all kinds from both sides, destroyed by clashes between the two armies. The situation of the Ukrainian army was very precarious in the region, even though they had their best-equipped brigades there, such as the 47th armored and the 82nd airborne.
After eight months of Ukrainian presence on Russian territory, it is currently unknown whether they intend to stay in a small fraction of land or if the withdrawal is total. The Kursk operation, which began by surprise and allowed the capture of hundreds of Russian prisoners in its early moments, has sent a strong political message to demonstrate the vulnerability of Russian borders, which had not been partially conquered since World War II.
A video of Russian troops in the center of Sudzha revealed that the Z troops were reaching those positions without a fight when they were already empty. The withdrawal, from a military perspective, was motivated by the worsening Ukrainian logistics. The Russians had artillery and drone fire aimed at the roads to supply the defensive positions of Kiev's troops, endangering their position and nullifying previous advantages. "The main problem was Russia's interdiction of the few available supply routes, with a main road to Sudzha. As the Kursk area was compressed, it became increasingly unsustainable," says Michael Kofman, an analyst at the Carnegie Center.
Furthermore, as negotiations began in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, and according to several analysts, the Ukrainians realized that the Kursk card as a wildcard for exchanges might not be as useful as they had imagined months ago. At this point, Zelensky did seek a ceasefire like the one reached on Tuesday at the White House and knew that the Russians would never agree to it with the Ukrainians on their own territory. The U.S. has mainly emphasized the joint mineral exploitation agreement as a bargaining chip, not any pact to exchange Kursk with the Russians.
The roadmap is already written and in Trump's hands, so holding onto Kursk at all costs was already too high a price to pay. Now the Kremlin has no tangible excuse to reject the ceasefire proposed in Saudi Arabia, although in Ukraine, they believe that Putin will either reject it or accept it only to later violate it and blame the Ukrainians. Ukraine's European allies have urged Russia to speak up after welcoming the agreements reached in the Saudi city, where the U.S. commits to resume military aid and restore Intelligence services.
In any case, the Kursk operation, as a temporary mission, ends for the Ukrainians having achieved some of their objectives: their losses were moderate compared to the Russian losses, sometimes with ratios of one to four deaths, although they had equalized in the last two months. By withdrawing in time, Ukraine avoided the mistakes of Avdivka, Bajmut, and other battles, where they were criticized for leaving the encirclement too late and under enemy fire. This withdrawal comes days after the latest ambush by the Ukrainian army on about 100 Russian soldiers who were trying to surround Kiev's troops using the Soyuz gas pipeline.
Many residents of the Sumy region recently expressed their fears to this reporter that Russia, after completing the operation to take over all Russian territory, would decide to enter Sumy. This option is possible but not straightforward, as the natural obstacles separating both countries (a river during the flood season) are compounded by the fortifications that the Ukrainians have been building for months, with several layers of dragon's teeth, anti-tank ditches, and landmines.
In this battle, the Russians have committed 50,000 soldiers from their best paratrooper units with their best armored vehicles. This prevented Russia from focusing on its offensive in the Donetsk region, whose strength has been dissipating in recent months until it came to a complete halt. The Koreans, with their absurd kamikaze attacks, have lost a good part of their contingent.
Meanwhile, Ukraine shot down 98 kamikaze drones launched by Russia against its territory in another night of bombings. Additionally, one person died in the city of Krivi Rig (Zelensky's hometown) in the Dnipropetrovsk region of central Ukraine, and four others in Odesa after a Russian nighttime missile attack.