Portugal will almost certainly have its third elections in three years after the Government lost the vote of confidence presented to Parliament on Tuesday, and after the Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro, failed in negotiations with the Socialist Party (PS) to avoid them.
The loss of the vote of confidence results in the immediate fall of the Executive. The President of the Parliament, José Pedro Aguiar-Branco, announced late Tuesday night that the center-right government was defeated in the vote, as reported by AP. The PS, the far-right Chega party, and the far-left voted against the Government.
The confidence vote was presented by the Government to "dispel uncertainty" about its own future after an alleged conflict of interest of the Prime Minister was discovered due to his business dealings with a company that he owned before entering politics, which he transferred to his wife and children. It has now been revealed that this company depends on casino contracts from the Government.
This scandal has already led to two failed motions of censure in Parliament. It was going to lead the Government to a parliamentary inquiry proposed by the Socialist Party, which has now been halted by the vote of confidence.
After the fall of the Government, everything is in the hands of the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. The Head of State can call for elections, which is the most likely scenario, or could also ask the majority and winning group of the elections (the PSD-CDS coalition) to propose another candidate. However, based on Rebelo de Sousa's recent statements, his intention is to call for elections, likely to be held in May.
The confidence debate focused on Montenegro's mutual accusations with the opposition leader, the socialist Pedro Nuno Santos. The Prime Minister accused the PS and the rest of the Chamber of poisoning politics with their insinuations and accusations. Santos, on the other hand, accused Montenegro of pushing the country into another election and political instability just to avoid an inquiry into his private business dealings and interference with his role as Prime Minister.
Since the elections held exactly a year ago, Portugal has experienced extreme political fragility, with a minority Government - having only 80 seats in a 230-seat Assembly. Additionally, the Prime Minister's party has only two more parliamentarians than the PS, as the election results were practically a tie with a slight advantage for the center-right.
Everything erupted a few weeks ago when the Portuguese press began to reveal that Luís Montenegro founded a small company, Spinumviva, with multiple business purposes, including real estate. Two weeks ago, the weekly Expresso reported that its main client, the hotel and casino company Solverde, is awaiting the renewal of two casino contracts. The decision to renew them depends on the Ministry of Economy, while Solverde has been paying 4,500 euros monthly to the former Prime Minister's company since 2021.
So far, Luís Montenegro has completely distanced himself from this company, which he founded when he was out of politics and disposed of in 2022 when he rose to lead the Social Democratic Party (PSD). The issue is that his separation from Spinumviva did not go far, as he transferred the company to his wife and children.
Ten days ago, the Prosecutor's Office opened an investigation into a possible conflict of interest, and the PS announced that they will propose a parliamentary inquiry. This initiative led Montenegro to announce the presentation of a doomed vote of confidence from the start, as the PS (78 seats) and Chega (50) announced they would vote against, along with the left-wing parties of the Communist Party and the Left Bloc.
In an interview on Monday, Montenegro expressed his intention to run again as a candidate for the Social Democratic Party (PSD) in case of early elections. He will do so even if he is charged by the Public Prosecutor's Office, as he stated.