The relationship between the US and Canada worsens with each passing day. More accurately, the relationship between the Trump Administration and Canadian political leaders, both nationally and regionally, due to the trade war unilaterally initiated by Washington, which has put hundreds of millions of people across the continent on edge.
This Tuesday, after a few days of keeping a low profile, Donald Trump launched two attacks against his northern neighbors. First, announcing his intention to double tariffs on steel and aluminum worldwide, increasing them from 25% to 50%, and escalating tariffs on cars. Following that, he raised the tone significantly, threatening with a "financial punishment that will be read about in history books" if Canada responds in any way that jeopardizes the electricity supply.
Not only that, the president hinted at declaring "a national emergency regarding electricity within the threatened area. This will allow the United States to quickly do what needs to be done to alleviate this abusive threat from Canada," a very ambiguous idea that could involve assistance for potentially affected regions, but also retaliation of any kind. The national emergency is the legal cover Trump has used in the south to mobilize troops and play with the idea of specific military interventions.
Throughout the day, as has become customary, everything changed. The US Secretary of Commerce called the Premier of Ontario and they agreed to remove taxes on electricity. Subsequently, Trump's team stated that there would be no additional tariffs (but the previously announced ones would remain), in another episode of what seems like a tragicomedy, but with a backdrop of an increasingly worrying escalation and an uncertain outcome.
"President Trump has once again used the influence of the US economy, which is the best and largest in the world, to achieve a victory for the American people," celebrated Kush Desai, White House spokesperson, indicating that a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum from Canada and all other trading partners would take effect at midnight, but not the 50%.
In a lengthy social media post, the American president had announced, "Given that Ontario, Canada, has imposed a 25% tariff on 'electricity' entering the United States, I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to add an ADDITIONAL tariff of 25%, up to 50%, on all steel and aluminum entering the United States from Canada starting tomorrow. "If Canada does not remove other atrocious and long-standing tariffs, on April 2, I will substantially increase tariffs on cars entering the US, essentially permanently shutting down the car manufacturing business in Canada," concluding that "the only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our beloved fifty-first state."
However, even more furious after the Ontario leader's remarks, who has been saying for weeks that he will not hesitate to retaliate with every tariff, by removing American products from shelves and even terminating contracts with several neighboring states to which his region supplies electricity, Trump further specified his threats: "Why would our country allow another country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made those decisions and why? And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, which greatly affects the lives of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat? They will pay such a high financial price for it that it will be read about in history books for many years!" he wrote.
Trump initiated everything and expects the rest of the world, especially his neighbors, to accept the tariffs without protest and certainly without retaliation. He appears to be surprised that other countries impose border restrictions, calling them "atrocious," while he describes his protectionist steps as "beautiful." Meanwhile, he issues intimidating messages talking about annexations, counterterrorism measures, or bringing up unlikely bargaining chips, such as the need to review border treaties or agreements on the Great Lakes region shared with Canada, causing chills with the possibility of a unilateral measure to annex territories or break boundaries that have stood for centuries.
To his surprise and indignation, his former allies and friends are not willingly complying. China has responded in kind, the EU has stated it will retaliate with equivalent measures, as have the northern and southern neighbors. Mexico has chosen a silent and cautious approach, especially since the White House accused Claudia Sheinbaum's government of complicity with drug cartels, also pointing out that now that they have been included in the list of terrorist organizations, military operations against them could be authorized, as is done in Africa or the Middle East.
But not Canada. Instead of remaining silent, the Canadian government, especially officials from the province of Ontario, have stood their ground throughout. Commercial pressure is accompanied by constant insults and a veiled threat that is becoming increasingly alarming in Ottawa and Montreal. Trump constantly insists that the country should integrate into the US, becoming the 51st state. He disrespects their outgoing Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, calling him "governor," as if he were part of the American federal system. This time, clear responses are coming from the north.
"If the United States escalates the situation, I will not hesitate to cut off electricity completely," said Ontario's Premier, Doug Ford, to reporters on Monday. "Believe me when I say I don't want to do it, I feel terrible for the American people because it's not the American people who started this trade war. The responsible party is one person: President Trump."
The timing also explains a lot. Trudeau announced his resignation in January and will leave office this week, after his party chose former central banker Mark Carney as his replacement. This gives him more freedom to speak. The same goes for the candidates of the main parties, who must align with the nationalist patriotic sentiment that now shapes the Canadian agenda.
In addition to his threat to cut off electricity completely, Ford said he could further increase that 25% surcharge if US tariffs increase, as Trump has indeed promised, proposing on Friday to multiply several times the charges on dairy products and lumber in Canada.
Both countries, along with Mexico, signed a trade agreement during Trump's first term, which does not cover all products but many. However, the US has decided to break the clauses, demanding that others change their policies. "Canada must immediately eliminate its anti-American tariff for farmers of 250% to 390% on various US dairy products, which has long been considered scandalous. Soon I will declare a national emergency regarding electricity within the threatened area. This will allow the United States to quickly do what needs to be done to alleviate this abusive threat from Canada," he said. "The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our beloved fifty-first state. This would make all tariffs and everything else disappear completely. Canadians' taxes would be substantially reduced, they would be safer, militarily and in other ways, than ever before, there would no longer be a problem at the northern border, and the greatest and most powerful nation in the world would be greater, better, and stronger than ever, with Canada being a significant part of that. The artificial line of separation drawn many years ago will finally disappear, and we will have the safest and most beautiful nation in the world. And its brilliant anthem, 'O Canada,' will continue to play, but now representing a GREAT and POWERFUL STATE within the greatest nation the world has ever seen!" he concluded.