Although 10 years have passed, no one knows how to deal with Donald Trump. Neither his closest team, nor the top of the Republican Party, nor his neighbors, nor his historical international allies, as evidenced by clashes with the UK, the EU, the NATO. But among all the groups, collectives, and organizations overwhelmed by his style, language, ambitions, and measures, the Democratic Party is probably the one that comes out the worst. They couldn't stop him in 2016, barely did in 2020, and have been defeated again by him and the MAGA movement (Make America Great Again), the most enthusiastic and motivated force in American politics. But if it's bad not knowing how to face him in an election campaign, it's worse not being able to confront him from the opposition while he carries out, in record time, the biggest transformation in recent history.
Political parties in the United States are nothing like European ones. Democrats have heavyweights in the Senate, in Congress, and some, incipiently, in the states, like governors. But there is no leader. Presidents come and go, never to return. Kamala Harris was the candidate, but after the defeat, she disappeared and won't be heard from until she decides whether to try again in 2028 or seek another position. The opposition today consists of members of the two legislative chambers, who are disoriented, overwhelmed, and even more divided than before. They are asking themselves the same question of the last decade: Is there a way to stop Donald Trump?
James Carville, a historic Democratic strategist, advisor to Bill Clinton, an important and media-savvy voice, has sparked a major debate with a controversial proposal: do absolutely nothing. His thesis is that in this second term, instead of prioritizing the issues he campaigned on (public safety, immigration, the border, and above all, the economy and inflation), Trump has chosen to dismantle the federal government by allying with Elon Musk. But that "there is nothing Democrats can legitimately do to stop him, even if we wanted to. Without a clear leader to express our opposition and without control in any branch of government, it is time for Democrats to embark on the boldest political maneuver in the history of our party: step back and play dead. Let the Republicans collapse under their own weight and make the American people miss us. Silence until the Trump administration has plummeted to a public approval rating between 40 and 30% in polls. That's when we should behave like a pack of hyenas and go for the jugular. Until then, I am calling for a strategic political retreat."
His proposal has outraged some, scandalized others, and depressed many voters who are witnessing in astonishment the dismantling of the system they have believed in and grown up with. There is a faction, the most bellicose of the party, that says surrender cannot be advocated and we must confront. This faction, spurred on by activists, demands that traditional methods be forgotten and a relentless political struggle be launched.
But many party leaders and the bulk of the establishment believe that a more surgical and moderate approach remains the most effective. Last week, Hakeem Jeffreys, the leader in the House of Representatives, admitted that they are quite limited in their actions and that it is better to focus rather than take every bait. "I'm trying to figure out what influence we really have. What influence do we have? Republicans control the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the presidency. It's their government."
"There is a huge amount of anger and anxiety among many grassroots Democrats about what is happening, and they are desperately interested in seeing their own fight," noted David Axelrod, a trusted confidant of Barack Obama, a strategist, and now a regular commentator, who believes that trying to mimic the tactics of the most radical Republicans would be counterproductive. "It is not effective to give the impression that all elements of the federal bureaucracy are untouchable, that there is no room for reform or efficiency. It is very difficult to resolve these issues without a leader, without a candidate, and we won't have one for several years," he warns in statements to The Washington Post.
In an event with Spanish-speaking journalists, including this newspaper, Congresswoman Katherine Clark, the minority whip, stated that when she hears what Carville and others say, she can only remember Clinton's campaign phrase: 'It's the economy, stupid'. "Our message to Americans is that we will not abandon you, we will not let them steal your health, aid programs, subsidies to farmers so that there can be another tax cut for millionaires. We will fight for you," she asserted.
Their caucus seems to have decided to focus relentlessly on the economy, inflation, and healthcare, and strategically choose each battle. For example, focusing on the Budget, something technical, with difficult coverage, but involving trillions in cuts for the next decade. It may work out, but it is a method from the past facing a completely different phenomenon, governed by the rules of new politics, not the old. In practice, whether intentionally or unintentionally, by strategy or incompetence, by division or weakness, the party is betting everything on Trump crashing. That there will be internal fights, especially with Musk. That there may be resignations or dismissals, as in the first term. That the poor performance of the economy and markets will undermine Trump's popularity and support.
After Clinton's defeat in 2016, legislative leaders, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, took the reins and managed to form a more or less stable coalition in opposition during Donald Trump's first term, managing to regain the House of Representatives in 2018 and the White House and the Senate in 2020. The feeling and hope are that the same play can be repeated now, especially if the economy slows down. And the favorites in the betting for the next presidential cycle, people like governors Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, or Josh Shapiro, are keeping a low profile waiting for their moment.
But until that happens, the image is one of complete weakness. The best example is Trump's speech on Tuesday before the two chambers, where there was no strategy. Some congressmen and senators were absent. One, veteran Al Green from Texas, was expelled for defiantly standing up to the president, telling him he had no mandate to cut healthcare, and when two days later Congress voted to censure him for his behavior, almost a dozen Democrats joined the other side, angered by what they saw as a lack of decorum and respect for institutions.
In the speech, several chose to wear colors as a protest, but the images did not really resonate because some wore pink, for women. Others wore black, for race. And others wore yellow and blue for Ukraine.
"Half a century ago, Muhammad Ali established himself as the greatest boxer of all time not by punching his way to glory, but by mastering the art of strategic retreat. Facing George Foreman, who had achieved 37 knockouts and 40 victories, Ali deployed the famous rope-a-dope strategy, retreating to the ropes of the ring, evading left and right, absorbing small blows until Foreman's battery ran out. At that moment, in the eighth round, Ali delivered the decisive blow to knock him out. We are now in the first round, patience, Democrats," Carville concludes in his essay.