A few days ago, on their Telegram channel, the Russian special forces deployed in Kursk requested "oxygen cylinders" available in the area. No one knows if it was that announcement, published openly and readable by anyone, that alerted the Ukrainian forces, but the bold plans did not go well.
On Saturday, taking advantage of the Intelligence cut to Ukraine by the United States, Russia launched an offensive to drive the Kiev soldiers out of the pocket they still control in the Russian region of Kursk for seven months. Days earlier, North Korean troops had infiltrated very close to the road that supplies Ukrainian logistics throughout that territory, threatening to encircle the entire garrison.
The plan lacked a psychological blow like the one they already gave a year and a half ago in Avdiivka: an infiltration using pipelines to emerge beyond enemy lines and cause chaos and confusion among Ukrainian defenders. In this case, the Russians used the Soyuz oil pipeline that connected Russia and Eastern Europe through Ukraine, which has not been operational since Zelensky did not renew the contract.
About 100 Russian special forces soldiers advanced for several hours about 15 kilometers inside the 1.4-meter diameter pipeline to the outskirts of the city of Sudzha, still under Ukrainian control. There, Ukrainian 82nd Airborne Brigade soldiers were waiting for them with artillery and drones. Was it due to the information gathered in the Russian unit's Telegram or an internal tip-off? That detail has not been disclosed.
Russian blogger Yuri Podolyaka speaks of dozens of dead and wounded in that initial confrontation. The remaining Russian soldiers, who managed to evade the bombs, tried to return to the pipeline for the journey back but died of asphyxiation since they had only loaded oxygen for the journey there and did not have a plan B. In total, it is believed that Russia lost 80 out of the 100 members of the command.
That failed operation did not prevent the Russians from advancing in other points of the Kursk front and further shrinking the salient controlled by Ukraine. According to publications like the Institute for the Study of War, these Russian offensives coincide with the cut-off of American Intelligence aid to Ukraine, leaving them blind. As reported by the Financial Times, the Russian high command has ordered Russian forces not to take prisoners of war in Kursk but to execute them on the spot. In fact, there are already numerous videos, recorded by Russian soldiers themselves, showing this type of war crimes.
What options does Ukraine have regarding that Kursk territory? The operation that began in August 2024 has already yielded very good results for Ukraine: it forced significant Russian forces to come from other points of the front, where the pressure eased, achieved a very favorable enemy casualty ratio for months, with one Ukrainian killed for every four Russians, also made Moscow seek help from its North Korean ally due to the lack of personnel, and caused the prestige of the Russian regime to plummet, unable to defend its own border.
But the main argument to sustain these territorial gains for Ukraine in Russia is to be able to exchange them in a hypothetical peace negotiation, and the advantages are no longer the same. Now Ukrainian logistics are compromised, and casualty ratios have equalized. That is why, in the last hours, the Ukrainian army has retreated to more defensible areas, on the other side of rivers or in ruined towns. Ukraine can try to defend that last portion or retreat, thus losing a negotiating card. Putin, on the other hand, has already sent his best forces (mostly paratrooper units, reinforced with North Koreans) to drive the Ukrainian soldiers out of there.
Additionally, this weekend, Ukraine's 61st Brigade, one of those defending that front, reported that they had to disconnect all their Starlink terminals as they were serving the enemy as geolocation of their positions. This accusation adds to the controversy between Elon Musk and Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State, with Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski: Musk stated that his Starlink system is "the backbone" of the Ukrainian army and that, if deactivated, "the entire front line would collapse". In response, Polish Minister Sikorski pointed out that Poland finances Starlink services for Ukraine at an approximate cost of $50 million annually and warned that if SpaceX proved to be an unreliable provider, they would seek alternatives.
Marco Rubio defended Musk, stating that "without Starlink, Ukraine would have lost this war a long time ago, and the Russians would be at the border with Poland right now". The Poles did not understand how it is possible that Rubio, the head of U.S. diplomacy, does not know that Poland already shares a border with Russia (Kaliningrad).