"Our allies must know that both Italy and Spain expect the commitment of the rest of the allies to the Southern Flank to be unquestionable, as ours is with the Eastern Flank." With these words, King Felipe VI summarized last December during the State visit to Italy what Spain expects from its allies both in NATO and in the European Union. Three years after the invasion of Ukraine, when all military forces are focused on the Eastern Front, Spain continues to strengthen the discourse on the need to also reinforce that border. It was a triumph the appointment of diplomat Javier Colomina as special envoy of the Transatlantic Organization. And last Thursday, at the extraordinary meeting of the European Council, Sánchez managed to have the first point of the Defense document drafted stating that "Europe must be more sovereign, more responsible for its own defense, and better equipped to act and face both immediate and future challenges and threats with a 360° approach." This "360º approach" is the one that addresses the south, where the threats are different from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and pose greater challenges and repercussions for Spain.
Last Thursday, Sánchez demanded during the press conference that when redefining the threats to the security and defense of Europe, a reflection should be carried out "to address the threats from the south," he stated. The Prime Minister recalled that these are dangers "with different nuances" from those in the east and listed "hybrid attacks", "terrorism," and "climate reality" as some of the problems on that southern border.
The threats to Spain on that border can be grouped into three categories: illegal immigration, the advance of Russian influence in the Sahel region, and disputes with Morocco and Algeria.
Alberto Priego, professor of International Relations at Comillas Icade, divides the problems between traditional and non-traditional regarding the two North African countries. Regarding Morocco, he explains that the threats "all stem from an economic and social inequality that is the largest between two states in the world: between Morocco and Spain. This causes the population to have to immigrate illegally, makes drug trafficking attractive to part of the population, leads to little investment in the southern part of the Strait, and makes them very exposed to rainfall," he describes.
The professor defines Algeria, on the other hand, as a traditional threat that is 219 kilometers from Almería in a straight line. "It is a complicated state that has rivalries with Morocco, but also with Spain. The biggest problem for Spain is the privileged relationship with Russia. Algeria has had an agreement with Russia since the 1960s and a little-known military alliance. In fact, since 2017, there have been plans to establish a Russian military base and naval and land military exercises have been carried out, the latest on the border with Morocco."
Vladimir Putin has a naval base in the Syrian town of Tartus. It is unknown what will happen with that Defense agreement after the fall of Assad, and rumors place a new base in Algeria. His ability to operate in the Mediterranean through Syria causes NATO and Spain, unilaterally, to permanently carry out surveillance, deterrence, and defense missions to safeguard territorial sovereignty.
The Navy has deployed the aircraft carrier Juan Carlos I, four frigates, a combat supply ship, another Maritime Action ship, and in a few days, the submarine Galerna will join Operation Sea Guardian in various points of the Mediterranean. All these assets monitor and control the movements of Russian ships, which pass through the Strait to exit from the Mediterranean to the Atlantic.
Several of these capabilities are part of NATO's permanent naval mission. In addition, five Spanish ships participate in national permanent surveillance and deterrence missions in Spanish missions. Although they rotate, one is always dedicated to the African deployment and another in the Gulf of Guinea.
For now, it is unknown what kind of policy Donald Trump will pursue, whether he will strengthen his relationship with Morocco, which triggers migratory waves towards Ceuta and Melilla; or following Putin's suggestion, he will approach Algeria, from where there is a migration route to the Balearic Islands. But these two countries - at odds with each other - are a traditional threat to the Southern Front of NATO and the European Union.
Another problem lies in the Sahel. The researcher from the Real Instituto Elcano, Marta Driessen, places it on the map: "Considering geographical aspects, we can consider the Sahel as a band that goes from one end to the other, from Mauritania to Sudan. But from a more political perspective, it is interpreted as countries in West Africa: Mauritania, Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso... Central Sahel includes Burkina, Mali, and Niger, which left ECOWAS, broke ties with their traditional European partners, and approached Russia and China."
Since the coup in Mali in 2021, governments in that area have been falling and being replaced by military juntas. The Sahel is a region of strong instability. "There is a polycrisis," Driessen describes, "we are talking about countries with a very diverse ethnic composition and a series of pre-existing tensions and grievances that are being exploited by terrorist groups to gain followers." In addition to the advance of ISIS-Sahel, various paramilitary groups financed by Russia - first Wagner and then Afrika Korps - operate in the area, gaining influence for Putin and pushing Europe out. "The Russians manage to promote instability that makes Europeans leave," summarizes Professor Priego. It also causes internal displacements, leading to the emergence of mafias trafficking in humans and sending them for irregular immigration.
In the Sahel, and after the end of the French mission and later the European Union mission in Mali, Europe only collaborates with Mauritania: "There is a certain fear that a regime change in Mauritania by Mali could be provoked. This would create a corridor from Algeria to Mauritania, connecting the Mediterranean with the Atlantic." This description by Priego would solve a historical problem for Russia: access to warm seas. Although Driessen believes that "the ties between Mauritania and Europe are solid," European diplomacy also recognizes that "it would be serious to lose Mauritania as an ally in the region."
Immigration, the proximity of Algeria and Morocco, and Russian influence are the three major threats on the Southern Flank. While the war in Ukraine continues, there is little capacity to advance on this front, Priego acknowledges two successes for Spain with its allies. "In NATO, the Mediterranean dialogue. In Europe, the Union for the Mediterranean, an initiative that must be the framework in which we operate."