The protectionist tariffs announced by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, starting from April 2, will affect the Spanish agri-food industry but in a "limited" way. At least, this is the conclusion of the study carried out by the consulting firm 'Roland Berger', a reflection document for Spanish companies in the agriculture, food, and beverage sector that establishes a scale of sectors where olive oil, olives, or peppers are the markets with less impact, and on the contrary, wine, cheese, sweets, fruit juice, or frozen vegetables are the most affected.
The comprehensive study by the consulting firm starts from the impact that imports to the United States from Spain had with the last three administrations. From 2013 to 2017, with the Obama administration, agri-food products from our country grew by 9.2%, but decreased to 4.3% with the tariffs imposed by Trump in 2019, then experienced a new jump in economic volume to reach 11%, according to Trade Map data. "If the 25% tariff is really applied, as stated, the situation is not so risky overall for most Spanish products," highlights Fernando López de los Mozos, partner in the agricultural, consumer goods, and retail sector at 'Roland Berger', who emphasizes that "the North American market is important for Spain, of course, but the Spanish market is also important for them, that is, there is mutual dependence."
In the first four years of Trump's presidency, tariffs were already established at the same percentage for products such as olive oil, wine, and a total of 113 national products, and reached 35% for black olives. For the former, in retaliation for "illegal" EU aid to Airbus; these impositions were lifted in 2021, but for black olives, alleged unfair competition due to EU aid to farmers was cited, and the tariffs remain in place today. "Sales evolution for olive oil and wine stalled for a while in the United States, but then resumed growth, while for black olives, it went from 179 million euros in 2017 to 157 in 2023," points out López de los Mozos, who highlights that the United States heavily depends on Spanish imports in olive oil (31% of all imports come from the Spanish market) and olives (33%). Wine (5%), sweets (5%), cheese - especially Manchego (6), fruit juice (3%), or pepper (10%) currently do not have such a significant demand from our country to the U.S.
Hence, the study by this consulting firm jointly includes olive oil, olives, and pepper as sectors where mutual interdependence between both countries exists "and therefore any change would affect both sides, and the new tariffs would ultimately be paid by the American consumer, who will continue to do so if the amount is not excessive as it seems it could be because they are willing to pay for it and can afford it." On the other hand, there are products at risk of substitution, those that if not placed due to excessive prices in the American market, competitors from other countries offering cheaper alternatives may appear, potentially losing current market share, such as canned or frozen fruits and vegetables; fruit juices; wine, cheese, or sweets. And a third classification, called 'relative stability', where fresh vegetables, meat, cocoa, food preparations, or pastries appear. "Therefore, each category of products must adopt its own strategy once the new tariffs come into effect in the United States to mitigate the potential impact, which in terms of overall volume will not be so significant for our food industry," emphasizes the consultant.
As a final conclusion, López de los Mozos emphasizes that due to market size, "it is very difficult to replace the United States and look for other places because in terms of dimensions, the only one that can come close is China, where the middle class has also increased, although their customs, operating channels, and even their food preferences are different, and they are even being offered as a solution," he recalls. In any case, this consultant predicts that "our agri-food sector will continue to seek opportunities in the U.S. and will continue to move forward, I am convinced of that," thus reducing the widespread alarm that has been created in recent days since Trump's protectionist announcement.