By the year 2050, there will be 25.2 million people worldwide with Parkinson's disease, more than double the number in 2021. This is estimated by research projecting a global increase in the prevalence of the disease mainly due to the aging population.
Parkinson's is a neurodegenerative disease that causes the death of neurons in a part of the brain, limiting the brain's availability of dopamine, a key neurotransmitter for movement control. It is the second most common neurodegenerative disease, second only to Alzheimer's, and currently has no cure.
A team of researchers led by Tao Feng from Tiantan Hospital in Beijing, China, has projected through various estimation models what will happen in the coming decades with the disease, taking into account data from 195 countries. According to their forecasts, by 2050, the disease burden will significantly increase in all regions studied, reaching a global figure of 267 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2050, although there are significant geographical differences to consider.
Details published in the latest issue of the British Medical Journal show that aging will be the main cause (89%) of the increase in disease prevalence, followed by population growth (20%), with the largest increases in the number of cases expected in East Asian countries, in males, and in middle-income nations.
Nevertheless, it is expected that the top 10 countries with the most cases in 2050 will be China, India, the USA, Germany, Brazil, Indonesia, France, Spain, Mexico, and the UK, including several countries - such as Spain - from the so-called first world. According to the study's data, Spain is projected to have 351,000 cases of the disease in 2050, placing the country in the eighth position globally, mainly due to increased life expectancy and population aging.
"Although these estimates are new, it was already known that there would be an increase in the disease due to the aging population and increased life expectancy," points out Álvaro Sánchez Ferro, coordinator of the Movement Disorders Study Group of the Spanish Society of Neurology (SEN). Aging is a key factor related to Parkinson's, but not the only one, the specialist notes, clarifying that other environmental factors such as exposure to pesticides and other toxins have also been linked to a higher risk of developing the disorder.
Parkinson's "will become a major public health challenge," emphasize the researchers in the scientific journal, calling for "urgent actions" to address "the growing healthcare demands of Parkinson's disease patients."
"Given the inevitable population growth, the aging population, and the disability experienced by people with Parkinson's disease due to the chronic nature of the disorder, there is an urgent need for future research to focus on the development of new drugs, genetic engineering technologies, or cellular therapies aimed at modifying the course of the disease and improving the quality of life of patients," they demand.
One of the aspects emphasized by researchers is the importance of exercise as a means to reduce the impact of the disease. "Currently, a fundamental recommendation is exercise because it has been proven that physical activity helps the patient be better controlled, has a protective effect," agrees Sánchez Ferro.
Currently, the specialist points out, the treatment of the disease focuses on managing symptoms, mainly with drugs designed to try to compensate for the lack of dopamine. The disease is most frequently diagnosed in elderly people, although up to 20% of cases occur in individuals under 50 years old, warns the neurologist.
"It is a significant problem that requires a boost in research," he urges.
Sharing the same opinion is José A. Morales-García, a scientific researcher in Parkinson's disease at the Complutense University of Madrid, who stated to SMC Spain that "this study provides key information for health system planning and reinforces the importance of research and prevention in the fight against Parkinson's. Ultimately, what they are indicating is that, looking ahead to the future and regarding Parkinson's, forewarned is forearmed, and without scientific research, there is no future."
"The study is based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, a recognized source in the field of epidemiological research, widely supported by the scientific community. Thanks to advanced statistical methodology, including Bayesian modeling and the use of various predictive models, researchers have managed to estimate the future incidence of the disease. This is crucial for health systems worldwide to anticipate the challenges posed by the increasing number of cases," the researcher points out, noting that the authors, however, "acknowledge certain limitations in their research, such as the lack of robust data on additional risk factors beyond smoking and physical activity, which were considered."
Furthermore, he continues, "the projection model does not incorporate other potentially relevant risk variables, which could underestimate some determinants in the disease progression. It also highlights the scarcity of data in certain remote rural areas, which could introduce bias in the estimates. Likewise, given that the diagnosis of Parkinson's is not straightforward and there is no specific test to confirm the disease, the clinical criteria considered could generate variations in the reported prevalence rates. With the advancement of research and the development of more precise biomarkers, future estimates are likely to be adjusted to more accurately reflect the epidemiological reality."
"The study's conclusions confirm existing scientific evidence: Parkinson's is more prevalent in elderly men, and its development is closely linked to the aging of the population. However, the study also highlights the importance of other risk factors, such as exposure to pesticides, an aspect that the scientific community has been pointing out for years. One of the main alerts of this study is that countries must prepare for an increase in demand for medical care and specialized services in Parkinson's. This will involve greater investment in human resources and infrastructure, as well as increased funding for scientific research to develop better prevention and treatment strategies," he concludes.