While Donald Trump tries to punish Ukraine to impose Russia's draconian conditions, the Ukrainian army has been successful in counterattacking for 48 hours in the four sectors of the Donbas front that the Z troops had set as targets for this winter: Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toresk, and Kupiansk. Faced with the U.S. threat to cut Starlink communications, many commanders have resorted to using their old Soviet radios and paper maps for when the Palantir company terminals, which integrate images of the entire front, stop working.
These offensive operations show that Ukraine is far from being defeated, as Russian propaganda claims, and that the front maintained by Kyiv not only does not collapse but also retains forces that can go on the offensive. Russian Milbloguer, the only ones authorized by the Kremlin to cover the war near the front, do not hide their disappointment: "There is a huge lack of personnel, and we have many drones, but few operators to fly them. This is not about fighting for the homeland or for Vladimir Putin. It's about advancing!".
In the Toresk sector, Ukrainians have once again broken into the city center for several days, erasing the advances that the Russians made in recent months at the cost of thousands of soldiers thanks to a pincer movement. The Third Assault Brigade, one of the most equipped units for these operations, surprised the worn-out Russian forces, who had to retreat to avoid being encircled.
In Pokrovsk, the city that the Kremlin had claimed for its troops for the anniversary of the invasion on February 24, the Russians have been bogged down six kilometers away for weeks, enduring Ukrainian counterattacks that have already driven them out of Shevchenko, Upenivska, Kotlyne, Udatchne, Pishchane, and Lysivka, in other words, Russian gains that cost weeks or even months of fighting. Russian Telegram channels do not spare criticism for the military commanders responsible for exhausting the units defending those areas to the limit.
In Kupiansk, Ukrainians have eliminated the Russian bridgeheads over the Oskil River and pushed them back to their initial positions, about three or four kilometers from the city. The wear and tear are also evident on this front, where Russia has been trying to advance towards that city since the winter of 2022 when it changed hands but without success.
Two months ago, several Ukrainian army commanders assured this reporter that now was not the time to negotiate with Moscow, as Russia's wear and tear in its last offensive would allow for better conditions to do so a few months later when it became clear that their armored reserves were already at a minimum and the Kremlin's liquidity no longer allowed it to continue supporting a war of attrition. Since then, Russian logistics have been severely hit by swarms of Ukrainian drones flying further each time, compromising the arrival of soldiers, food, and ammunition to the battlefield, where Moscow also has fewer armored vehicles and sends its troops to attack with motorcycles, Ladas, and golf carts.
Furthermore, Ukraine still holds a part of the Kursk region, precisely where North Korean reinforcements are fighting, without Moscow being able to dislodge Kiev's troops. It is the only point where Russia is still trying to break through after collapsing on the rest of the fronts. In the left sector of this pocket, Ukraine is facing difficulties in maintaining the line, but Ukrainian General Olexander Sirsky's intention is to hold onto that territory at all costs as a bargaining chip in possible peace talks, perhaps due to the Zaporiyia nuclear power plant, in Russian hands since the early stages of the invasion.
The war is now heading towards an unknown scenario. The lack of U.S. support will have a lesser impact on the front than a year ago when aid stopped coming for six months. Now, Ukraine bases its defense on drones, the masters of the battlefield. However, Kyiv has little ammunition in its Patriot anti-aircraft batteries, which defend cities from Russian bombings. At the same time, Moscow has increased nighttime attacks with Iranian Shahed drones, with swarms of nearly 200 units each night, joined by ballistic missiles. The United States has also cut off intelligence for launching ATACSM missiles, essential for targeting high-value objectives within Russia or in occupied areas.
This week, and always in a coordinated manner, the usual Russian propaganda satellites in Spain announced on social media the victory of Z troops in the invasion of Ukraine. "Russia has won the war!" they proclaimed. The reality on the ground is that they remain at a standstill in Donbas after minimal advances at the cost of tens of thousands of deaths. Only Donald Trump, by accepting Moscow's conditions, can give Russia a victory it never achieved on the battlefield.