Donald Trump continues to distribute doses of arrogance and cruelty to his former Ukrainian ally. If last Monday it was the pause in the delivery of military equipment, which posed a worrying challenge for the troops in Kiev, now he has left them blind by cutting off the vital Intelligence collaboration that gave some advantage to the soldiers of the invaded country. In Ukraine, they wonder what to expect next from the country that had promised to stand by them "for as long as necessary."
The decision is terrible in military terms. Thanks to that Intelligence, Ukraine was able to know before many Russian generals that the Z troops were going to invade Ukraine on February 24, 2022, giving Zelensky a chance to prepare a resistance that helped defeat the Russians around Kiev and Kharkiv, the two most important cities in the country. Putin responded on Wednesday to Zelensky's truce offer with an attack of 183 drones and three ballistic missiles across all of Ukraine.
Furthermore, now Ukraine will not be able to access the information that triggered its early warnings, such as the takeoff of bombers, drones, and missiles from Russian territory, which allowed warning Ukrainian civilians to take shelter. Now they will have to rely on their own radar equipment, much inferior in detection capabilities. Undoubtedly, this decision by the Trump Administration could lead to the deaths of civilians in Ukraine.
It is difficult to measure the extent of the damage Trump intends to cause in Ukraine to force them to negotiate under the conditions already agreed upon between Washington and Moscow. The Trump Administration stated that all these measures would be relaxed as soon as "the date, time, and place" for starting negotiations were known, which seem more like submission to their invader.
Andrii Yermak, right-hand man of Volodymyr Zelensky, spoke on the phone with advisors to French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Ukraine is desperately seeking help from its current partners so that Ukrainian demands are heard in Washington.
The next step for Trump and his advisor Elon Musk could be the disconnection of Ukraine from its Starlink satellite network, essential for current communications from command centers to the front lines. If Washington cuts off this service, Ukraine will be left without Intelligence and with its units isolated without communication, meaning the U.S. is returning Kiev to the war of the 20th century.
If the U.S. cuts off this service, it would conflict with Poland, which currently contracts and pays for 20,000 terminals of the network for Ukrainian use. Although it seems that Washington has no problem with conflicting with old allies.
The French satellite group Eutelsat is studying with several European countries to replace the telecommunications services that its American rival Starlink provides to Ukraine. Starlink belongs to the spaceflight giant SpaceX, founded and controlled by Elon Musk, a declared sympathizer of Vladimir Putin, who tweeted on his X social network on Tuesday that Zelensky should step down and be sent into exile in a third country.
Musk's position's inconsistency is quite notable, considering that immediately after the 2022 Russian invasion, he decided to provide the receiving antennas to Ukraine for free and offer service without charge. Later, he changed his mind and threatened to cut off Ukraine's access to Starlink if the U.S. government did not cover the costs, which eventually happened. Today, Poland pays for the subscription.
Starlink has played an absolutely key role in Ukraine's defense, despite Musk, who regularly speaks with Vladimir Putin, now defending the positions of the invader. In 2023, the billionaire and now advisor to Donald Trump unexpectedly cut off Ukraine's access to Starlink to prevent an attack on the Russian fleet in the Black Sea, which was in Crimea.
Musk began his approach to Putin precisely by defending Russian sovereignty over Crimea that year, a Ukrainian territory that Moscow officially renounced in 1994 but invaded and annexed 20 years later. Starlink satellites do not distinguish the territory where the antennas should be, so the services of this company are also used by the Russian military.
Now, the future of the service that Starlink provides in Ukraine is surrounded by uncertainties after Trump decided on Monday night to suspend military aid to that country.
This is where Eutelsat has come into play. The French company owns the British group OneWeb, which it acquired last year. OneWeb provides, like Starlink, low-orbit satellite telecommunication services. However, its capabilities are much lower than its American rival. OneWeb only has 600 satellites in orbit, to which Eutelsat could add its fleet of between 35 and 38 geostationary satellites, which are at a much higher altitude. In contrast, Starlink has 7,086 satellites in orbit and launches between 60 and 90 more into space every week.
OneWeb terminals are designed to be used by companies and states, while Musk's company's antennas are aimed at individual consumers. This makes Starlink antennas much smaller and easier to move, two key features in a war.
In any case, OneWeb seems to be the only non-American - and therefore not subject to Donald Trump's pro-Russian wrath - that could be made available to Ukraine in case Washington cuts off Starlink communication.
According to a report yesterday in the British newspaper Financial Times, the European Commission is exploring other options, including allowing Ukraine access to the GovSatCom system, which will provide encrypted communication services to EU countries. The big problem is that this network will not be available until 2026. In that year, Amazon's Project Kuiper, which aims to create an alternative network to Starlink, will also be fully operational.
Project Kuiper has piqued Taiwan's interest, which wants a low-orbit satellite communication network in case of a Chinese invasion. Taipei authorities do not want to use Starlink due to the huge dependence of the Chinese market on Tesla, whose largest shareholder and executive is Musk.