Although there are serious doubts about the quantities, extraction possibilities, and their real value, the US believes that Ukraine has deposits of at least 22 of the 50 rare or critical minerals it needs the most. Graphite, uranium, lithium, tantalum, beryllium, niobium, gallium (essential for semiconductors), and other rare earths, a set of essential elements for everything, from mobile phones to missiles. A single combat aircraft requires hundreds of kilos of these minerals. Titanium is one of the main objects of desire, as before the war Ukraine was on track to produce 10% of the total global output. The same goes for lithium, essential for batteries and of which the invaded country has significant quantities.
The US is pressuring in ways that border on the most cruel blackmail (even threatening to cut off vital access to satellites with Elon Musk's Starlink) to a people devastated after three years of war to secure at least half of those deposits. To exploit them or to prevent others, including European allies, from accessing them. An agreement will be reached in the coming days, even hours. The problem is that the numbers handled by the administration are estimates, projections. Enormous investments are needed to extract them, and success is never guaranteed.
In matters of geopolitics, as well as in national, economic, or cultural politics, it is very difficult to say exactly what Donald Trump is seeking. His worldview combines improvisation, messianism, realpolitik, autarky, Jacksonianism, and an imperialist nationalism that revives the manifest destiny of the 19th century, but only partially. Also, a lot of personal sympathies or antipathies, egocentric aspirations (like winning the Nobel Peace Prize, like some of his predecessors), and pure economic interests.
When he talks about Gaza, the friend of Israel, the one who despises the Arab world, and the real estate developer come together, unable to think in terms other than luxury buildings by the sea when he sees a devastated and flattened territory. When he talks about Panama, he evokes the Trump who since the 1980s has been loudly complaining that the world is full of ingrates. He used to place ads everywhere to complain that Japan was a huge threat to the US, a country that did not pay homage as it should and dared to compete economically, commercially, and industrially. The same happened in his first term with Germany. Or again now with the American country and its Canal. Since it was built by the US, Trump believes it is his right to control it and expel any competition, especially China.
The cases of Greenland and Ukraine are not directly related, but they allow us to see dimensions of that geostrategic vision. The Danish territory combines three elements. First, the issue of US national security and control of Russia, thanks to military presence and radars that can prevent missile launches. Second, navigation, as in the case of Panama. The thaw is making the area a more strategic passage. Essential for the future or for situations where there are blockages in the global supply chain, as seen not long ago with the ship stuck in the Suez Canal. The third aspect, of course, is raw materials, fuels, and the critical minerals or rare earths that are desperately needed to compete with China, which holds the largest quantities.
This leads directly to Ukraine. What is Trump seeking with an incredible shift in US policy towards the country and the war? On one side is the global dimension. He admires and respects Putin but detests Zelenskyy. Because he is a hero, because he is brave, because he believes he helped Biden and the Democrats. He repeatedly despises that Zelenski dared to stand up to someone stronger. In his view, the strong have rights over the weak, and he does not like disruptions of the natural order.
On the other hand, there is the transactional aspect. Trump believes, or at least repeats, that his country has given Ukraine $200 billion more than the EU, which is rigorously false. Europe has mobilized more resources in total, although some are in loans. This irritates him because he believes that the EU is recovering or will recover part of what was committed, and they are not, so he sees it as a scam. He has been complaining for years that taxpayers' money is going to help Kiev in a war he considers stupid. So he wants to recoup the 'investment'. And the best way is through Ukrainian minerals.
Washington is now trying to force Zelenskyy to cede up to half of its rare earths without even exchanging it for future security guarantees, but for past aid. According to the Ukrainian Geological Institute, the country has rare earths such as lanthanum and cerium, used in televisions and lighting systems; neodymium, used in wind turbines and electric vehicle batteries; and erbium and yttrium, with applications ranging from nuclear energy to lasers. A study funded by the EU cited by Reuters also indicates that Ukraine has reserves of scandium.
Last week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent presented an agreement to Zelenski in Kiev, but he refused to sign it, stating that the Ukrainian side needed to study it further and that the agreement should contain some form of security guarantees for Ukraine. Hours later, in Munich, the US presented it again demanding his signature, without time to negotiate or study it. When he resisted, attacks followed, with Trump calling him a "dictator," Trump harassing him on social media, and Bessent calling him a liar for saying there would be an agreement and not sealing it.
Zelenskyy had described the initial proposal as "unclear", pointing out that it demanded a 50% stake in a list of mineral deposits and that Trump's demand for $500 billion was excessive. Not only because the US has contributed around $100 billion, but also because Ukraine's GDP does not even reach $180 billion. He will sign because he has no alternative, but he hopes for better conditions.
Between 20% and 40% of Ukraine's critical mineral deposits are located in areas of the country currently under Russian occupation, according to George Ingall, a price analyst at Benchmark Minerals Intelligence cited by The Wall Street Journal. The World Economic Forum has indicated that Ukraine is also a potential key supplier of beryllium, manganese, gallium, zirconium, graphite, apatite, fluorite, and nickel. Just the country's graphite reserves, a key component in electric vehicle batteries and nuclear reactors, would represent 20% of global resources, according to these indicative calculations.