Ukraine and, especially, its president Volodimir Zelenski, have to stay quiet, "tone it down," not protest, show gratitude, undersell their natural resources, and take on a secondary role in the negotiations to end the war that has destroyed their country, as "Russia holds the best cards." That is the message that Donald Trump and his environment have conveyed to Kiev in the last 48 hours, after the US president called his Ukrainian counterpart a "dictator" and even blamed him for the start of the invasion.
Negotiating with Trump and the new Administration is surprisingly easy for perennial rivals or enemies, like Russia, but extremely complicated, violent, and painful for their allies and partners. The past, facts, numbers, reality are not enough. Everything depends on the leader's sympathies, their favor, which usually entails huge doses of flattery, submission, and verbosity.
Being very careful with his words and tone, and never attacking Trump, Zelenski suggested that Ukraine should have the final say on its future, that it has the right to be at any negotiation table, and that the "Russian disinformation bubble" surrounds the White House, given the falsehoods or inaccuracies of the Trump Administration. The onslaught of insults, threats, and attacks was instantaneous and devastating.
It wasn't just the label of "dictator without elections," Trump's suggestion that he and his team are siphoning fortunes from aid to Ukraine, or blaming him for the start of the war and "millions of deaths" due to his "terrible job" leading the country to halt the invasion. Trump then warned him that "the Russians want to see the end of the war... but I think they hold the cards, because they have taken a lot of territory, so they hold the cards."
One attack and warning after another came from his environment. The most active, as usual, Elon Musk, using his platform on the X social network to repeatedly accuse him of not being a democrat, of having ended press freedom, opposition, and refusing to hold elections. Charlie Kirk, one of the main voices of the MAGA (Make America Great Again) world, demanded that Musk audit the money sent to Ukraine for military assistance and to pay salaries and pensions.
"The idea that Zelenski will change the president's opinion by speaking ill of him in public media, everyone who knows the president will tell you that it is a brutal way to deal with this Government," Vice President J.D. Vance told the Daily Mail in an interview, warning of the repercussions. White House National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said on Fox News on Thursday that Zelenski must "tone it down, analyze it thoroughly, and sign the agreement," referring to the offer, which Kiev considers pure extortion, to give away half of its rare minerals to the US in exchange for not even guaranteeing its survival, but for the military assistance provided in the past.
Zelenski and his government do not accept what they consider ominous, and which is also wrapped in a cloak of falsehoods. Trump continues to claim every day that his overall aid to Ukraine has been 200,000 billion more than the EU, an absolutely false figure, and also that the EU somehow secured a refund, which is also untrue. The EU has granted some loans to Ukraine, and the only expected refund is for that, not for the military assistance provided, for example.
The Administration is using all its pieces. They sent the Treasury Secretary to negotiate the rare earth deal (and Trump even lied about Zelenski not receiving him because he was sleeping) and now General Kellogg, the only one truly knowledgeable about what is happening on the ground and the only one Kiev feels comfortable talking to, as they understand that to achieve peace, it is necessary to show strength, but towards Russia, not the victim of the invasion.
At the same time, they are using all their power from Washington to undermine his reputation and break his will. With little room to maneuver, Zelenski seeks help from Republican congressmen and senators to mediate or speak in favor of his cause, but with limited success. The decision to cancel the press conference between the president and Kellogg this Thursday is the best sign. It was essential to avoid uncomfortable questions, more fuel to the fire, and any comments that could be misinterpreted or used against him.
It is precisely to counteract this framework that next week, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, and the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, will travel to the US capital, presenting the idea of having up to 30,000 European soldiers in Ukraine as a security guarantee after a peace agreement. Far from the Russian border, but ensuring the sky, as the airspace has been closed for three years, and the sea, above all.
Faced with the evident US retreat, the UK and France are leading efforts to create a European "security force" aimed at preventing future Russian attacks, not only on cities but also on ports and critical infrastructure in Ukraine.
The idea of sending troops has been floating for months. Macron seemed to suggest it even before a ceasefire, but then backed down. The consensus in NATO is that any security in the area would require US collaboration and its air force, even if Washington did not want to deploy troops. Last week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth seemed to suggest it could be done if Europe mobilized its armies, but Paris and London know that any idea must go through Trump. And even better, it should seem like it's his idea.
Ukraine estimated the international force needed at five times that amount, led by the US, but things have changed a lot and very quickly. Right now, Europe fears that the negotiation between Putin and Trump will result in an unprecedented framework since the 1940s, even with the possibility of the US withdrawing its troops deployed on the continent, or at least in territories closer to the "Moscow's area of influence," in Poland or the Baltic countries.