The goal is no secret: quickly get rid of Volodimir Zelenski. And the strategy is completely visible. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have already begun negotiations not only to end the war, but to divide Ukraine, its territory, its natural resources, its future, and weaken Europe. All for Ukraine, according to Washington's new doctrine, but without the voice, vote, or veto of Kiev. Trump wants it immediate, and the biggest obstacle is the president, who refuses to surrender and accept abusive, humiliating, and imposed agreements. So the machinery is in motion to get rid of him, labeling him a "dictator," insinuating that he steals money from Americans, blaming him for the war, and stating that "he has done a terrible job, his country is destroyed, and MILLIONS have died unnecessarily".
When just a week ago Trump announced that he had spoken with Putin, breaking three years of isolation and practically abandoning decades of transatlantic consensus, the world paid close attention to his multi-phase attack. The phone call, the praise for the Kremlin, their desires to visit each other, buying into the narrative that the war was due to desires to join NATO a decade ago, the speech by his vice president J. D. Vance in Munich, warnings from his Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, to NATO allies. But perhaps the most important aspect was overlooked.
The Kremlin spokesperson, in the same briefing where he confirmed the contacts and the reestablishment of channels with Washington, clearly explained that his country was open to a "long-term" solution to the Ukraine issue. But only if the "deep-rooted reasons" for what they call a "special operation" are addressed. And that doesn't just mean a ceasefire, a withdrawal. In the rhetoric of these years, it implies getting NATO to lock its doors to Ukraine, as the US has already enthusiastically accepted. Keeping Crimea and other areas, something Washington deems "realistic." And having a puppet government, or at least not a very hostile one, in Kiev.
It is very difficult to imagine that any agreement between Putin and Trump would allow the continuity of Zelenski or the hardline anti-Russian faction in Kiev. This helps understand the sequence of recent days and anticipate the next steps. Putin has put the price on the table, and the White House believes it is perfectly acceptable in exchange for scoring the point of peace.
First, they accused Zelenski of not preventing the war. Then, of starting it. Of imposing martial law. Of not holding elections, something practically impossible amid a land invasion, continuous bombings, disruption in communication lines or electricity supply. Now, Trump, who has always had a more than cold and distant relationship with him, has him in the crosshairs and is preparing the ground. Suggesting time and again that he will have to face the polls. Inventing that his popularity is barely 4%. He praises, applauds, and admires Putin, an undisputed dictator, and ridicules and insults a cleanly elected leader. It's his style, his worldview, and no one can say it wasn't expected.
The next step, given the precedents, is obvious: resurrect and amplify all the Russian propaganda that for years has sought to destroy Zelenski's and Ukraine's popularity and reputation, saying it is the most corrupt country on the planet and linking it to Joe Biden's son and allegations of a plot by the Democratic Party and Kiev trying to manipulate the 2016 US elections. Accusing him of becoming a millionaire like several of his predecessors, saying that he and his wife have millions abroad and are preparing for a golden exile, arguing that there is rampant fraud, and also linking him to the US development aid agency, USAID, which the administration is trying to shut down.
Tulsi Gabbard, recently nominated to be in charge of White House intelligence services, whose pro-Russian or Chinese inclinations have been denounced in the Senate confirmation process, is perhaps the one who has contributed the most to undermining Zelenski's reputation in the US, accusing him of being precisely a dictator for stifling opposition, attempting to outlaw all parties, or having "absolute control over the media, Parliament, and the Orthodox Church."
The final phase of this unfolding plan would be open blackmail to the country, giving it the choice between maintaining US aid (reduced, conditioned on a severe peace agreement and almost giving away its raw materials with an abusive contract) or Zelenski. And checkmate at the negotiation table.
That's exactly what Trump telegraphed yesterday when in a message on his social network, going for the jugular, he attacked by saying that the Ukrainian leader who has resisted the invasion "refuses to hold elections, is very low in Ukrainian polls, and the only thing he was good at was manipulating Biden. He is a dictator without elections, he better move fast or he won't have any country left," he warned.
"Furthermore, Zelenski admits that half of the money we send him is lost," said Trump, inventing facts again, but above all paving the way for the return of the offensive on corruption and the theft of taxpayers' money that Elon Musk will help spread in X. Within minutes of Trump's message, both Vance and the world's richest man went after him, saying he didn't want peace but "money and power."
The key is the context. For almost three years, Donald Trump has repeatedly said that if he had been president in 2022, the war in Ukraine would never have happened. Because Putin, whom he admires and respects, wouldn't have dared. But he has also been claiming for three years that the war would end as soon as he set foot back in the White House. He has been trivializing Ukraine for years and lying or exaggerating about the military aid provided by his country, to the point that his party has come close to blocking it on several occasions in Congress. Years of attacking, belittling, and mocking, just like his children, Elon Musk, and many of the main voices of the MAGA (Make America Great Again) universe towards Volodimir Zelenski.
That's why what has happened in recent weeks is no surprise and only requires context and intention. Because Ukraine is the means, not the end. Putin has imperial ambitions, and Ukraine is an obsession. But his biggest geopolitical obsession is the European Union. He doesn't hide it, nor do his apologists and propagandists. He wants, needs to break up the Union, weaken and pit its members against each other, separate them from the United States. And little by little, he is succeeding. Through Hungary, through Slovakia. And now with the White House openly doing the work he has been pursuing in the shadows for decades. Because they share some of those interests. Trump doesn't want rivals and sees the EU as one, not as a partner. He doesn't want EU regulation, he doesn't want Euro competition. Like Putin, he seems interested in a weak Europe with a secondary role on the global stage.
On January 24th, in his first interview since taking office, Trump suggested that Ukraine should not have fought when Russia invaded. "Zelenski was fighting against a much larger, much more powerful entity," he told his friend Sean Hannity of Fox News. "He shouldn't have done it, because we could have reached a deal (...) I could have closed that deal very easily, and Zelenski decided he wanted to fight," he criticized, referring to the number of tanks each country had at that time, emphasizing that Russia had more. On Tuesday, he took the natural step in that evolution, saying that in reality, the blame for the war, the responsibility for the start, was on Zelenski and Ukraine.
It was enough to look at the precedents. Just a year ago, Tucker Carlson, former Fox host, friend, and ally of Trump, interviewed Putin in Moscow. Among all the things and lies he spread, surely the most provocative statement was about Poland. Putin claimed that the country, which was invaded by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union in 1939, "collaborated with Hitler." The perpetual Russian president said without his interviewer's rebuttal that by refusing to give Berlin the Danzig Corridor, Poland "went too far, pushing Hitler to start the Second World War by attacking them." The blame was on them, just like Ukraine with Donbass.
It is striking, hard to accept, but in these years and especially in this last month, Trump has bought the Russian narrative and worldview point by point, entirely. He said a few days ago that it was logical that Russia could not accept Ukraine's desire to join NATO. He stated that if Russia had not been expelled from the G8, as happened in 2014 after the Crimea invasion, there probably would not have been a total invasion in 2022. And he advocates for lifting the sanctions just as he tried to do in 2017, only then the Senate was not under his control, and his party was not just an extension of the MAGA movement. Just yesterday, the EU strengthened them one step further.
While making deals with Russia, Trump threatens his trading partners and military allies. He criticizes them, belittles them, intimidates them, like his neighbors. He talks about keeping their territory (Greenland). And he wants immediate results. Not only to continue presenting himself as a great statesman, the only one bringing order to the global stage. But also to prevent time for a reaction. The EU is slow, very slow, and he knows it. Ukraine has resisted thanks to two pillars, but it will be very difficult to do so if it loses one.