"I promise you that Jordan will continue to be free, proud, generous, and secure." These are the words with which King Abdullah II concluded the speech to the nation that crowned the celebrations for his 25 years on the throne last June. And yet, in light of recent events, these words take on renewed relevance and lend themselves to agonizing interpretations.
Because the small nation in the Middle East, praised for decades by the international community as a unique oasis of stability, finds itself at a serious crossroads with its Monarchy facing the worst existential crisis in the reign of the Hashemite sovereign. The reason being the unprecedented plan by Donald Trump for the devastated Gaza, which involves the forced deportation of its nearly two million inhabitants, whom the new occupant of the White House intends to find new refuge in Egypt and in the country at hand, Jordan. Beyond the condemnation of a project that violates international law and seems entirely unfeasible to a large part of the society of nations, the issue threatens to destabilize the Jordanian regime, much more fragile than is commonly emphasized.
Abdullah II was received in the Oval Office by Donald Trump on Tuesday. The Arab monarch had never experienced such an embarrassing and humiliating situation before the cameras. The meeting between the two leaders was arranged before the Republican surprised the world with the announcement he had made during a previous visit to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Abdullah II did not cancel his trip to Washington, as the Egyptian President, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, did. Probably because the Hashemite sovereign knew he could not afford such a snub to Trump, but also because in his worst nightmare, he could not have imagined that his host would treat him with so little respect in front of the journalists' flashes.
The Jordanian king, received by Trump upon arrival at the White House.Afp
The king's face was a picture as the U.S. president assured that Jordan would accept his plan, regardless of the fact that in their previous private meeting, Abdullah II had expressed his refusal. The Arab leader, unsettled, tried to resort to diplomatic gestures to avoid a direct confrontation, although in doing so, he appeared as an extraordinarily weak leader while Trump dominated the scene with his verbosity. The monarch had to promise that his country would soon welcome 2,000 sick Gaza minors. Only after leaving the White House did he take to Twitter to express his rejection of the mass deportation from the Strip and rely on a common position among Arab countries, especially considering the diplomatic counteroffensive that key regional actors like Saudi Arabia may launch.
Jordanian media conveniently made efforts to praise the king's rejection of Trump's plan. However, neither the affront suffered before the eyes of the world, eagerly awaiting a meeting of great interest, nor the political fragility of the sovereign went unnoticed among his people. This undoubtedly triggered an almost unprecedented mobilization by the Hashemite regime, resulting in Abdullah II and his eldest son, Crown Prince Hussein, being welcomed back in Amman on Thursday from the U.S. trip by thousands of people who cheered the king as a hero who had just won a war.
Thousands of people welcome King Abdullah II and the Crown Prince in Amman on Thursday upon their return from the trip to the United States to meet with Trump.AFP
This overreaction once again highlighted the tension currently felt in Jordan. Even Donald Trump, perhaps following the advice of an advisor, a day after treating the Hashemite monarch as a mere puppet, recorded a video addressed to the Jordanian people to praise him. "You have a king who is an extraordinary man. He is a leader. He has a wonderful heart. He loves you very much, loves his country. He has done incredible things. You are fortunate to have him," he emphasized with his usual loquacity from the same stage where hours earlier he had shown that he would not hesitate to carry his blackmail against Amman to its ultimate consequences.
The political stability in Jordan over these decades has been largely due to the economic, strategic, and military support that the U.S. has been providing to the Jordanian Monarchy, which would hardly be able to navigate the turbulence that threatens it without this decisive patronage. Financially, Washington provides its ally with an annual aid of around 1.7 billion euros, according to data from ForeignAssistance.gov, making Jordan the third-largest recipient of foreign assistance from the U.S., behind only Israel and Ukraine. Additionally, bilateral cooperation in crucial areas such as Defense is an essential pillar for the Hashemite Royal Family. At a time when Trump plays with the threat of cutting off aid at his convenience, Amman feels particularly vulnerable to the large-scale geopolitical blackmail currently on the table.
A Key Regional Player for the West
Of course, in Washington, as in none of the Western chancelleries that are currently crossing their fingers at the unpredictable consequences of opening Pandora's box, they cannot overlook that Jordan's stability is essential both for the fight against radical Islamism and, for example, to mitigate the many threats facing Israel. The Peace Treaty between the Hebrew State and the Hashemite Kingdom signed in 1994 normalized relations between the two countries and ended their territorial disputes that began in the Arab-Israeli war of 1948. Amman then became a partner of Tel Aviv in diplomatic, touristic, or commercial matters, and a cooperating agent for its security, as was seen just last year with the massive Iranian attack on Israeli territory.
The Jordanian Monarchy is accustomed to walking a tightrope. The Kingdom has a population of 12 million, half of Palestinian descent, including two million with refugee status of this nationality - in addition to hundreds of thousands of refugees from other countries like Syria who fled the war. The low GDP places Amman around the 100th position - with slight fluctuations from year to year - among the 198 countries recognized by the UN. And unemployment is one of the nation's major challenges, with over 50% of its youth unemployed. All this makes the Kingdom highly dependent on foreign aid, both Western and especially from the Gulf Petrostates.
Constitutional monarchy on paper, it is an authoritarian regime where the king enjoys extensive powers. Nevertheless, elections are held for the Lower House, and last September, the Islamic Action Front, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, surged to 31 seats - out of a total of 138 - which analysts interpreted as a very concerning sign of discontent with the Crown.
The regional tension, especially following the start of the Israeli offensive in Gaza after Hamas' attacks on October 7, is exacerbating internal unrest, with massive protests against the war in the last year and a half that have been harshly repressed by the Jordanian regime, severely restricting freedom of the press and expression, as denounced by organizations operating in the area like HRW.