If there is a nation that is clear about taking advantage of all the global turmoil caused by Donald Trump, it is China. The Xi Jinping regime has been presenting itself as the only stabilizing power capable of filling the void left by Trump's isolationist policies and protectionist economic agenda. While the unpredictable daily show continues in the White House, Beijing is getting serious because they see a clear opportunity to expand their influence and create a more multilateral framework, with less dominance of the United States in global affairs. The Asian giant would like to increasingly play a role in all possible arenas, from the Middle East to Latin America. But for their governance model to appeal to both friends of developing economies in the Global South and Western trading partners, Beijing needs to score a major diplomatic victory by participating, in some way, in peace negotiations in Ukraine.
This week, in the global geopolitical arena, it was Trump who made the most significant move in a long time: he pushed for an end to the conflict in Ukraine after speaking with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. The American president stated that the Russian and Ukrainian leaders are ready to start negotiations immediately. Trump also surprised by stating that he and Putin would soon meet in Saudi Arabia, although he did not specify when this meeting would take place exactly (several media outlets have reported that high-level officials from the US and Russia will meet in Saudi Arabia next week to prepare for this summit).
In this scenario orchestrated from the White House, the European Union was never mentioned, completely ignored despite the demands from the foreign ministers of the most influential countries within the bloc to have a voice in any peace negotiation. Washington also did not mention China, another key player very close to Putin. Although in the last 15 days, Trump has mentioned a couple of times that in conversations with Chinese President Xi Jinping, he had pressured Beijing to help the US end the war in Ukraine.
Following Trump's round of calls, both Moscow and Beijing celebrated the agreement reached by the Republican with Putin to bring the Russian leader to the negotiation table. "This is how one should communicate with Russia," said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who praised the diplomatic efforts of the American president. "Dialogue is the only way out of the crisis, and we will continue working to achieve an immediate ceasefire," responded a spokesperson from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This statement makes sense considering a report by the Wall Street Journal that revealed that Xi's government, before Trump's announcement, had proposed holding a summit between the American and Russian leaders.
In recent weeks, the Chinese had reportedly approached Trump's team with their proposal through intermediaries. However, the offer was met with skepticism in Washington and especially in Europe when they learned of Beijing's plan. In Brussels, they are very aware of the increasingly close ties between Xi and Putin, but they also have reservations about Trump's plan because they fear that before sitting at the negotiation table, he will make concessions to the Russian autocrat.
The European Union, witnessing how the strategic alliance with the US is crumbling due to the trade war and the humiliation caused by Trump's solo peace plan, asserts its role and demands that any agreement that may seem like a defeat for the West against Putin should be avoided. "Any agreement without the EU is doomed to fail. Our priority now must be to strengthen Ukraine and offer solid security guarantees," stated the EU's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas.
China's initial proposal would not sit well in Brussels either because it would involve another Trump-Putin summit without the participation of Ukrainian President Zelensky, who criticized Xi's government at the end of last year for attempting to devise a unilateral peace plan with Brazil without involving Kiev.
These are not easy days for the Ukrainian president after Trump first called Putin and, during a 90-minute conversation, reopened the doors to international diplomacy. Zelensky admitted that "it was not very pleasant" to accept the fact that Putin was the first to receive the call. What has angered Kiev the most is the prospect that Ukraine's future may be determined through negotiations in which Ukraine itself does not participate. In other words, there is a possible scenario where Kiev and Brussels are sidelined, and Beijing, due to its proximity to Putin, takes their place at the negotiation table.
A few days ago, Trump mentioned that he does not rule out a trilateral meeting with the heads of state of China and Russia, although this meeting would take place when "things calm down." Liberal democracies, from the UK to Japan, are on alert due to this potential rapprochement between Trump, Putin, and Xi. "The closeness of Trump to Putin, and of Putin to Xi, means that these three figures could dictate a new vision of the world, a new order, and a new distribution of power among them," stated former EU diplomat Josep Borrell this week.
China, seeking to overturn Washington's traditional role, has been intensifying its participation as a global mediator in conflicts for many months. Xi, as the leader of the world's second-largest economy, is usually quite transparent about his country's ambitions to lead a new world order alternative to the one led by the US for the past 50 years.
The Chinese leader promotes among his allies a global foreign policy program, the Global Security Initiative (GSI), which presents Beijing as a potential mediating power. This global governance plan, according to sources from the Asian giant, is now gaining more strength than ever as the US, under Trump's leadership, breaks away from international institutions and uses tariffs as a protectionist weapon, even against its supposed allies. However, there is also a parallel reality regarding Chinese ambitions: so far, they have failed in their attempts to be the leading power that achieves a ceasefire in Gaza or convinces their ally Putin to halt his invasion.
"They haven't done much in that regard," Trump stated a couple of weeks ago regarding China's efforts to mediate to end the Russian attack in Ukraine. "We discussed it," he added about the call he had on January 21, a day after the inauguration, with Xi Jinping. "I told him he had a lot of power, that he should resolve it (the conflict). We hope that China can help us stop the war... they have a lot of power over that situation, and we will work with them."
In Ukraine, Xi's government has never publicly supported the Russian attack (referred to as a "crisis" in Chinese propaganda), but the Beijing-Moscow axis, especially in the economic field, has been the Kremlin's main strategy to circumvent the impact of Western sanctions. From Washington, the previous Biden administration accused the Chinese government of selling the dual-use technologies necessary to fuel Moscow's "war machine".
A couple of years ago, Beijing published a 12-point document called "China's Position on a Political Solution to the Ukraine Crisis." It was a text that, rather than a solid proposal to resolve the conflict, outlined their stance on respecting Ukraine's sovereignty, calling for a ceasefire, while also acknowledging Russia's legitimate security concerns about NATO expansion into Eastern Europe.
Three days after speaking with Trump, Xi Jinping held a video call with Putin in which they reaffirmed their good relationship and agreed to meet "soon" later this year. In 2024, Putin and Xi held three bilateral meetings. The navies of both countries increased their joint military exercises, and trade between Beijing and Moscow set a new record, growing by 2.9% compared to 2023. However, this growth was significantly slower than the 32.7% increase in 2023 when the Asian giant heavily purchased more Russian oil sanctioned by the West.
This weekend, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was in Europe to participate in the Munich Security Conference, where he highlighted China's support for Trump's peace plan in Ukraine in his speech.
But in a nod to the EU, the Chinese minister, in a meeting with Kaja Kallas, stated that the Asian giant supported Brussels' important role in the peace process in Ukraine. These statements contradict what was also defended at the security forum by Trump's special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, who emphasized that European leaders would not participate in the peace talks.
What the Chinese envoy meant is that while Trump is willing to keep Brussels and Ukraine out of negotiations with Putin to end the war, in China - unlike the initial proposal reported by the WSJ - they truly believe that the European side must also be present at the negotiation table.
In Munich, on the sidelines of the conference, Wang met on Saturday with his Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha, who reciprocated the Chinese minister's gesture by highlighting that Beijing, as a key global player, also has "a crucial role to play in achieving peace."