The invasion of Ukraine began a new chapter yesterday, with the direct involvement of Donald Trump and his discussions with Putin and Zelenski to negotiate the end of the conflict. This outcome could involve the cession of the invaded Ukrainian territories to Russia.
In anticipation of an imminent peace, European stock markets have responded at the opening on Thursday: while the London stock exchange fell by 0.39%, Madrid rose by 0.47%, while Paris and Milan increased by 0.94% and 0.39% respectively. The European benchmark index, the Eurostoxx, experienced a 0.6% increase led by the industrial sector.
The largest increase was seen in the Frankfurt stock exchange, with a rise of 1.06%. Analysts attribute this increase to the fact that the German economy has been the most affected among European economies by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and evidently, the news of an imminent end to the conflict has been well received, "because it reduces the geostrategic risk premium," explain Bankinter analysts.
Looking towards a future end, commercial winners and losers are beginning to be identified in this peace scenario: on one hand, experts raise questions about what will happen to the arms sector, which has experienced a revaluation in these almost three years of conflict that could now start to decline.
Meanwhile, all post-conflict scenarios are focused on the reconstruction of Ukraine, a plan that still needs to be defined, but will undoubtedly benefit companies in the construction sector. In line with this, it is not surprising that in the case of the Ibex 35, the earliest rise has been seen in the steel company ArcelorMittal, with a 4.32% increase at the opening.
Among the other beneficiaries, the transportation sector, IAG opened today's session on the Madrid stock exchange with a 0.93% increase. The end of the war in Ukraine and the easing of Russian import restrictions would reduce risks on the crude oil supply. This perspective, in addition to providing good prospects for transportation companies, led to a 0.92% decrease in the price of Brent crude oil, the reference for the European market, in the early hours of the morning.