There were many analyses until recently that pointed to the European Union's aspiration to work with Donald Trump regarding the always complex relations with China. However, that plan sank before taking off due to the threat of strong tariffs and the entry into the geopolitical scene of the billionaire Elon Musk, who now, disguised as an agitator, is dedicated to promoting far-right populist politicians in Germany and the United Kingdom.
"With the European Union, we have a trade deficit of $350 billion. They don't take our cars, they don't take our agricultural products, they don't take anything," Trump stated in January. Amid the excessive noise surrounding the first weeks of the Republican in the White House, a report from the Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post, owned by the Chinese giant Alibaba, highlighted that all negotiations Brussels had ongoing with Chinese authorities have been sidelined, starting with the halt of discussions on tariffs for electric vehicles manufactured in the Asian country.
According to some authoritative voices in Beijing, this latest development is not necessarily bad news for the government of Xi Jinping. Trump's new trade war, which could also soon directly impact Brussels, may cause the EU to soften the tough line that has recently guided its policy towards China, marking a thaw in relations. In the world's second-largest economy, where they maintain a diplomacy that places special importance on symbolic round dates -this year marks the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and the EU- they will seek this rapprochement, taking advantage of the uncertainty about the unpredictable blows that may come from Washington.
"Trump's return to the White House has increased instability and uncertainty. China and the EU, as two of the world's largest economies and staunch supporters of economic globalization and trade liberalization, can offer stability for inclusive global economic growth through much stronger cooperation," says Yao Ling, director of the European Institute of the China Academy of International Trade, under the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.
This cooperation approach was highlighted in January, a few days before Trump's inauguration, by President Xi Jinping when he spoke on the phone for the first time with Portuguese António Costa, who took office in December as President of the European Council. The conclusion of that conversation was that this year, taking advantage of the celebration of half a century of diplomatic relations, both parties would hold a summit. This will be the first since late 2023, when trade tensions with Brussels escalated due to the investigation into Chinese subsidies for electric cars, which would end last October with the Commission imposing tariffs of up to 35% on vehicles manufactured in China.
"Beijing and Brussels need each other, especially in these times of global uncertainty", Yao Ling believes. "The EU's economic growth still depends on access to China's huge market. And it is worth remembering that during the European sovereign debt crisis, the strong growth in exports to China and the influx of Chinese capital were crucial in driving the EU's economic recovery. According to statistics, bilateral trade supports the employment of three million people in the EU and six million in China."
According to Chinese customs, trade between China and the EU in 2024 amounted to $785.8 billion, a 0.4% year-on-year increase, of which China's exports to the EU reached $516.4 billion (a 3% increase), and imports from the EU stood at $269.4 billion (a 4.4% decrease). The EU is China's third-largest export destination, while China remains the largest source of imports for the bloc.
Earlier this week, after Beijing entered the trade war with Trump by retaliating with tariffs on US products, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen intervened in Brussels. Von der Leyen, who has always maintained a very critical position towards China, softened her tone and left the door open to improving bilateral relations.
"We will continue to reduce the risks in our economic relationship, as we have done in recent years, but there is also room to interact constructively with China and find solutions that benefit both parties," Von der Leyen stated. "I believe we can reach agreements that could even expand our trade and investment ties. It is a very fine line we must walk, but it can lead us to a fairer and more balanced relationship with one of the world's economic giants."
It has been the second time in 15 days -the first was during an intervention at the Davos Forum- that Von der Leyen has moved away from the attacking rhetoric she used to have towards China, just like Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, who said a few days ago in the European Parliament that "there was room to expand our trade and investment ties with China."
While Trump begins to wield tariffs as a weapon, it seems that Beijing and Brussels, despite all the fronts they have open, can leave behind the level of tension to which their relations had reached at many moments.