The Space Agency and NASA have recalculated their predictions, and the chances of the asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032, have increased to 2.3%.
The asteroid, over 50 meters in size, was discovered on December 27 with a telescope in Río Hurtado (Chile), leading the UN to activate the Planetary Safety Protocol for the first time. 2024 YR4 can be observed until April when it will move away from Earth following its orbit around the Sun. It will revisit us in December 2028, again without impact risk, but according to the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), by 2032, specifically on December 22, we need to be prepared.
Since its discovery, impact forecasts have been continuously recalculated, always against Earth. Initially, the risk was 1.2% for an impact within the next 50 years. On Tuesday, the probabilities increased to 1.6%, and yesterday, Thursday, to 1.9%.
Currently, the chances of impact are higher than the 0.001% chance, for example, of winning the Christmas lottery, or the one in a million probability of being struck by lightning.
This is the first asteroid to reach level 3 on the 'Torino Scale', indicating that this object has over a 1% chance of impacting Earth and measures between 40 and 90 meters in diameter.
If a collision were to occur, the potential impact area currently includes the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and southern Asia.
If it were to impact Earth, the damage could be similar to the 1908 Tunguska event in Siberia, where an area similar in size to the Spanish island of Gran Canaria was devastated by a meteorite.
View of the asteroid 2024 YR4 captured by the Institute of Astrophysics of the Canary Islands.IAC
Currently, the asteroid is visible from ground-based observatories, but by late April, it will no longer be visible from Earth, requiring the use of more precise telescopes.
Measurements will be taken using the James Webb Space Telescope, "the most powerful at the moment," as explained by Richard Moissl, head of the Planetary Defense Office at the European Space Agency (ESA).
This telescope, developed by 14 countries and launched into space at the end of 2021, is located 1.5 million kilometers from Earth, directly facing the Sun.
According to the expert, James Webb will allow for the exact diameter calculation of the object, a crucial data point to assess its risk, as its size is currently unknown.
"We have indications that lead us to believe it is a stony asteroid, likely measuring between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, usually leaning towards the lower end," detailed Moissl.
If it were confirmed to be larger than 50 meters in diameter, "the situation would be more complicated," as if it were to collide in a city or densely populated area, "that area would disappear from the map," stated the German expert.
Moissl also predicted that by mid-March or early April, the likelihood of impact with Earth would reduce to zero.
"Education on this topic is crucial. People have many misconceptions about asteroids, often influenced by Hollywood movies where the end of the world is the only outcome. This generates unnecessary concern," Moissl affirmed.
Throughout 2029, educational campaigns and outreach activities will be conducted with the support of the UN and entities like the International Astronomical Union.
"We aim to educate on what these percentages mean, that a 1-meter asteroid is not a significant issue, but a 100-meter one could be much more serious," Moissl concluded.