Trump needs to hurry. The U.S. president wants to reach an agreement with the Government of Volodymyr Zelensky to access the rare earth minerals located in Ukraine. One of the most coveted, lithium, is found in a large vein about 10 kilometers from the front line, in the town of Shevchenko. If the Russians take control of it, Washington will not have access to this essential mineral for battery manufacturing. In exchange, the U.S. offers military assistance in their war against the Russian invader, shipments that, after a weeks-long pause, were unexpectedly resumed last Monday with a new batch of armored vehicles.
"We send hundreds of billions of dollars to the Ukrainians. They have excellent rare earths. I need guarantees, and they are willing to give them to me," stated Trump, referring to a negotiation that seems to be already open and that Kiev does not view unfavorably, considering the surplus of these minerals still existing in Ukraine and the military needs of its army in this war of attrition against Russia.
What are the so-called rare earths? They are a group of 17 chemical elements including scandium, yttrium, and the 15 lanthanides. Despite their name, they are not particularly rare in the Earth's crust, but their extraction and processing are complex. They are essential in modern technology, making them a strategic resource with a significant impact on the global economy and geopolitics. They are used in the manufacturing of screens, magnets, batteries, lasers, or wind turbines. China holds the largest percentage of rare earths on the planet, close to 60%. This makes holders of other deposits very desirable producers for competing powers. Trump, essentially a businessman, knows that he is in a position to try to control these deposits in exchange for hundreds of Bradley armored vehicles or pallets full of artillery shells.
Last year, the World Economic Forum published a report titled Ukraine's Strategic Role in Global Supply Chains, stating that "Ukraine has immense potential as one of the world's leading suppliers of critical raw materials essential for industries such as defense, high technology, aerospace, and green energy." This study asserts that Ukraine "has about 20,000 mineral deposits of 117 types. Of these deposits, 3055 [15%] were active before the Russian invasion, 147 are metallic mineral deposits, and 4676 are non-metallic."
"Ukraine is a key potential supplier of rare earth metals, such as titanium, lithium, beryllium, manganese, gallium, uranium, zirconium, graphite, apatite, fluorite, and nickel. Despite the war, Ukraine holds the largest titanium reserves in Europe [7% of global reserves]," concludes the report.
This proposal has sparked criticism in the international community. For example, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz described Trump's initiative as "selfish" on Wednesday, arguing that the rare earth resources should be used for the reconstruction of Ukraine after the war, rather than being the subject of commercial agreements with third countries.
But the United States does not want these rare earths to end up in the hands of Vladimir Putin, and that is why they have made a move. For now, it seems that the ceasefire Trump promised "within 24 hours" is not the priority, or at least, it is not as straightforward as in the electoral campaign. Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Russian regime, described Trump's proposal to negotiate control of these rare earths as assistance on a commercial basis. "It is better, of course, not to provide any assistance at all and thus contribute to the end of this conflict." But for Russia, it is always others who must end the war, never the one who provoked it.
In 2023, Forbes estimated the value of Ukraine's mineral resources at 14.8 billion dollars. At the same time, over 70% of the total amount comes from just three regions: Donetsk and Luhansk (partially occupied by Russia), as well as the Dnipropetrovsk region. It is precisely the border between the latter oblast and Donetsk that holds the most wealth, and it is right in the disputed area, where there are also coal mines that fuel Ukraine's steel production and gas wells.
Russia has always been behind the attempt to control these areas. In Stalin's era, after World War II, the USSR sent thousands of Russians from other geographical areas to Donetsk not only in search of labor but also to russify a territory that the dictator knew would eventually fight for its independence. This movement explains the resistance of a part of the Donbas population to move away from Moscow after the Maidan revolution in 2014.
Another element that attracts foreign states and companies is Ukraine's rich and fertile soil, known as black earth or chernozem. The utilized agricultural area covers 70% of arable land, meaning that 30% is not being exploited. Around 42 million hectares can feed 500 million people, that is, two-thirds of the entire population of Europe.