Elon Musk wants to send people to Mars, and that is now also a priority for the new US Government. It can't be said to have been a surprise. The inaugural speech of Donald Trump lasted exactly half an hour, and in the 24th minute, the red planet was mentioned: "The US will once again be considered a nation in growth, increasing our wealth, expanding our territory... and carrying our flag to new and beautiful horizons," stated the new president before ensuring that they will "launch American astronauts to plant the stars and stripes on Mars". From the audience, an exultant Musk smiled and gestured. It's what he wanted.
Strictly speaking, NASA has been working for years to send a manned mission to Mars. That is the ultimate goal of the Artemis program, which, after the latest delay announced last December, foresees Americans walking on the Moon again by mid-2027, as a necessary step to reach the very inhospitable and distant red planet.
The current plan, established by Trump himself, is to achieve a sustained presence on the Moon to teach humanity how to live there and maximize the chances that, in the future, astronauts can travel to Mars, survive there for a while, and return safely after spending a total of between two and three years away from Earth. The duration of a manned mission will depend on the timing of the launch - the distance between the two planets varies depending on the orbit - the propulsion of the spacecraft, and the time spent there. At a minimum, it will last for 870 days, as detailed by Jorge Pla-García, a researcher at the Center for Astrobiology (CAB/CSIC-INTA) and a member of the robotic missions to Mars Curiosity and Perseverance.
But for Elon Musk, owner of the aerospace company SpaceX, "the Moon is a distraction" and what he intends "is to go directly to Mars" with his reusable spacecraft Starship, which is the most powerful in the world and is in development. It consists of two parts, the Falcon Heavy rocket and the Starship spacecraft, which exploded in mid-flight last week during its seventh test. A setback that has not reduced the urgency of the magnate, who has set out to send an unmanned Starship to Mars in 2026 and another with astronauts in 2028.
This is a much more optimistic timeline than what the experts consulted by this newspaper see as realistic, with their earliest estimation being in the mid to late 2030s if the US Government truly commits to it. In other words, it seems that Trump will not see his flag waving on Mars during his term, despite Musk's plans: "We all know that sending a crewed spacecraft in 2028 is simply impossible. I am convinced that it will be achieved with the Starship, but there is still much development needed," states Pla-García.
There is unanimity in the fact that a manned mission to Mars is extremely complex and will require years of work and the development of technologies that do not currently exist. And for that, a huge injection of money will be needed. "Traveling to Mars is really very complicated, if it weren't, it would have been done already," summarizes Javier Rodríguez-Pacheco Martín, principal investigator of the Energetic Particle Detector (EPD) of the Solar Orbiter spacecraft. The Astrophysics professor at the University of Alcalá (Madrid) points out that "if things are to be done properly, this project must be approached in a multidisciplinary way, as it encompasses orbital issues, studies of the Sun, shielding to protect the body from radiation, or pharmacology, among many others."
"Setting the goal of going to Mars seems very positive because it will boost the entire aerospace industry and will promote the development of other areas, from space tourism to technologies for more efficient resource use or medicine, which will have applications on Earth. However, with current technology, sending a round-trip mission is not possible," agrees Isabel Vera, president of the Space Committee of the Institute of Engineering of Spain.
This aeronautical engineer believes that "if the same economic and technological effort is made as was done after Kennedy's announcement to go to the Moon, it could be possible to reach Mars, but the smart thing would be to test everything first on the Moon. It is possible to reach Mars in the coming years without passing through the Moon, but it will be much riskier for the astronauts," she asserts.
Both the significant injection of money and the US space roadmap must be sustained over time. Because another key factor is commitment and continuity, something that has been lacking over the past two decades. From George W. Bush to Trump, all presidents have been changing the exploration plans of their predecessors for different reasons.
It is worth remembering that it was Trump himself who in December 2017, almost a year after starting his first term, undid the plan that Barack Obama established in 2010 to send a manned mission by 2030 directly, without returning to the Moon first. Previously, Obama had canceled George W. Bush's Constellation program to return to the Moon due to its high cost, a decision that outraged Neil Armstrong and other Apollo veterans.
Obama decided to focus NASA's budget and efforts on Mars, with arguments not very different from those now put forward by Trump and Musk. If Trump were to cancel the return to the Moon now, he would therefore be canceling his own plan.
The big question now is how NASA will articulate the desire of the new president and Musk, and how it will affect the Artemis program to establish a base at the Moon's south pole, an area rich in water that China also aims to reach by the end of this decade. Because going to the Moon is not just to learn to live on Mars; its geostrategic importance and implications for national security are evident, especially when its major rival could arrive first. Musk, who has significant private interests in the race through SpaceX, will not directly lead NASA, but his friend Jared Isaacman, an entrepreneur, pilot, and the first private astronaut in history to perform a spacewalk, will. Few doubt that, from his important position in the Government to make it more efficient, the richest man will push for the Martian mission to receive a good share of the budgets.