Years ago, politics borrowed from military doctrine the expression shock and awe, a display of power on the battlefield, literally and figuratively, to overwhelm not only the enemy but also with a show of force and vigor. That's what Donald Trump's team is prepared for in his first days, even hours, starting next Monday when he takes office. Up to 100 measures on immigration, border security, tariffs, regulations, climate, and pardons for the Capitol assailants of 2021 are prominently featured.
In 2016, the first decisions and executive orders were known the same afternoon of January 20, almost without time for Trump to have taken the Oval Office after the ceremony at the Capitol and the traditional walk through the Washington DC Mall. Now, the same will happen with the same priorities. "On the first day, I will sign an executive order directing all federal agencies to immediately eliminate all burdensome regulations that increase the cost of living," he said at a campaign rally. His promise is that for every new regulation introduced by a federal agency, 10 existing ones will be eliminated, something that Elon Musk finds appealing, indirectly responsible for an informal agency that will advise on reducing the size of the Administration.
For the entire immigration issue, the most mobilizing, Trump has once again put his advisor Stephen Miller in a key position at the White House, responsible eight years ago for controversial policies such as the separation of minors from their families. In a private meeting with senators from his party, the president-elect recently confirmed that the machine is working flat out to send a clear and resounding message on the first day, "from restrictive measures at the US-Mexico border to energy development, labor standards, gender policies in schools, and vaccination mandates, among other promises made on the first day during his campaign," as reported by Axios. Introducing new measures or revoking many approved by Joe Biden over the past four years. During the campaign, he even joked about bringing a small desk to start signing documents in the Capitol itself.
It's not just a bit of fireworks to encourage his followers and show voters that his campaign promises were not empty. The Republicans now control the House of Representatives and the Senate (and even the Supreme Court has a clear conservative majority), but Trump will opt for dozens, even hundreds of immediate executive orders, accelerating and reinforcing the role of power represented by the Presidency.
For example, the completion of the famous border wall between the US and Mexico and the creation of immigrant detention centers where they can be housed until they are expelled "are about $100 billion in proposals," senators have said, and the incoming administration and Republican leaders in Congress are working to see how to finance it as part of the entire budget negotiation," according to AP. The first target is around a million people who recently crossed the borders, individuals who were legally in the country and committed some crime or individuals whom the courts have already ordered to be expelled.
In the past year, he has pledged to close the southern border and with nuances the northern one, reinstate the controversial travel bans of 2017, or suspend the admission of refugees to the country. But then there are others that require legislative changes and lengthy negotiations. Trump has also committed to ending birthright citizenship on his first day, which would mean that children born to undocumented immigrants would not automatically receive US citizenship, but that will have many legal complications and cannot be done easily. "On the first day of my new term, I will sign an executive order that will make it clear to federal agencies that, according to the correct interpretation of the law, from now on, the future children of illegal immigrants will not automatically receive US citizenship," Trump said in May 2023.
One of Trump's most personal promises is to pardon those convicted for their role in the January 6, 2021 Capitol assault. The president has indicated on several occasions that he will act quickly, but without specifying who among the over 1,500 convicted for crimes related to their participation, and whether it includes those who used violence against the police. When Time magazine asked him in December how the first 24 hours of his Administration would be, Trump responded without hesitation: "I will study the events of January 6 from the beginning, maybe in the first nine minutes."
A big question mark is what will happen with Ukraine. The issue has disappeared from the US political debate, focused on a thousand other topics, especially Gaza and Israel in foreign affairs. During the election campaign, Trump repeatedly said that before taking office, he would end the war "in a day, in 24 hours. It will end. It will end completely." There are few things he can do through executive orders for this, and it seems that his team is not particularly optimistic about it. But no one rules out in the capital that he may send some kind of signals.
Another very relevant issue is how far he will go in his 'anticlimate' crusade. It is clear that on his first day, he will reverse many policies related to decarbonization, even with the US commitments to the Paris Agreement. His plan includes, for example, ending the "electric vehicle mandate" and eliminating climate subsidies, referring to the controversial EPA regulation that limits exhaust pollution and effectively forces the sale of more electric and hybrid models.
And the same goes for the gender issue. Trump has committed to immediately sign executive orders to "end child genital mutilation, remove transgender individuals from the military and from our elementary, middle, and high schools," and to make it official that "there are only two genders." But the extent of the measures is not clear, whether it would affect state funds, program funding, or be more aggressive, as demanded by the Republican Party and the entire religious base of conservatism.