Earth has just experienced its second warmest November on record, only surpassed by last year, so it is almost certain that 2024 will end up as the hottest year on record, according to a report by the European climate service Copernicus released on Monday.
Last year was the warmest on record due to human-caused climate change combined with the effects of El Niño. But after the boreal summer turned out to be the hottest on record - with Phoenix enduring 113 consecutive days with a maximum temperature of at least 37.7 degrees Celsius (100 degrees Fahrenheit) - scientists anticipated that 2024 would also set a new annual record.
The global average temperature in November was 14.1 degrees Celsius (57.38 degrees Fahrenheit). In November 2023, the average was 14.98 degrees Celsius (59 degrees Fahrenheit). Up to November, the global average temperature this year is 0.14 degrees Celsius (32 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than the same period last year.
Jennifer Francis, a climatologist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Cape Cod, who was not involved in the study, said that what stands out the most about November is that "like 2023, it surpassed previous Novembers by a wide margin."
It is also likely that this will be the first calendar year in which the average temperature was 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, according to the report. The 2015 Paris Agreement indicated that human-caused warming should be limited to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), and ideally below 1.5. In the years following the pact's signing, leading scientists worldwide emphasized that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius was crucial to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, such as more destructive and frequent extreme weather events. Scientists say that the main cause of climate change is the consumption of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas.
This "does not mean that the Paris Agreement has been violated, but it does mean that ambitious climate action is more urgent than ever," said Samantha Burgess, Copernicus' deputy director, in a press release.
Francis said that the new records are "terrible news for the population and ecosystems."
"The pace of warming is so rapid that plants and animals cannot adapt as they have always done during previous changes in Earth's climate. More species will become extinct, disrupting the natural food webs they are part of. Agriculture will suffer as pollinators decrease and pests thrive," she said, also warning that coastal communities will be vulnerable to rising sea levels.
Heatwaves over the oceans and the loss of sea ice and snow cover likely contributed to this year's temperature increase, experts said. Copernicus noted that the extent of Antarctic sea ice was 10% below average in November, an unprecedented figure.
The scientific community, "perplexed"
Oceans absorb about 90% of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases, and subsequently release heat and water vapor back into the atmosphere.
Last year's historic warmth was partly due to the presence of El Niño, a temporary natural warming of parts of the central Pacific that alters the climate worldwide.
But that ended earlier this year, and a cooling effect that often follows, called La Niña, did not materialize, leaving the scientific community "a bit perplexed by what is happening here," said Jonathan Overpeck, a climatologist at the University of Michigan.
An explanation is that El Niño releases more heat into the atmosphere due to higher ocean temperatures, so "we are not getting the cooling effect that in past decades used to help reduce the temperature," Overpeck said. So it seems that this could be contributing to the acceleration of global warming.
But this year, he said, "it's such a big leap after another leap, and that is terrifying."