This Wednesday morning, a television showed images of the French President, Emmanuel Macron, walking in the desert of Saudi Arabia, where he is on a trip. It is a fitting image because France from today could be walking into the unknown: if left without a Government, facing a level of uncertainty not seen in decades. If the opposition blocs (the left and the far-right party of Marine Le Pen) vote in favor of the motion of censure presented by the former, the Executive led by the conservative Michel Barnier will fall this afternoon. It is the first time this has happened since 1962.
The parliamentary session voting on the proposal started at 5:00 p.m., and the decision will be known around eight. The Government is doing calculations because it could survive if a handful of deputies do not join the motion, despite the instructions given by their respective parties. They need about forty deputies. They hope to be able to count on some dissenters, especially within the Socialist Party. Those who believe that voting with the far right crosses a red line. Although it is most likely that the Executive led by Barnier for the past three months will fall.
"The moment of truth has arrived, unprecedented since 1962, the end of an ephemeral Government, of circumstances," said Marine Le Pen, shortly after the debate began. The far-right leader was the second to speak. She waited her turn standing, outside her seat, with the pages of her speech in hand. When she took the stand, the deputies of her party stood up to applaud her, while the Macronist side booed her.
"In a few minutes, we will put an end to this optical illusion, what is surprising about this is the surprise of this Prime Minister, whose sectarianism has prevented him from making the slightest concession that would have avoided this," she stated. She will unite her votes with those of the far-left France Insubordinate, but "we will never see them as allies," she warned.
Earlier, left-wing deputy Eric Coquerel was the first to speak. "Chaos is not the censure, chaos is already here," he exclaimed.
The first motion being debated is from the left. Le Pen's motion will be discussed later, although the only one with a chance of succeeding is the first one. Laurent Waquiez, from the party of The Republicans, accused Le Pen of leading France into instability and Barnier of failing in his project.
Gabriel Attal, Barnier's predecessor, condemned on Wednesday the alliance between the far-left and far-right to bring down the Government. "The Prime Minister has not left our political family, but despite that, we have decided to support him because it is in the country's interest," he defended during his speech. He was barely allowed to finish, amidst boos from both the left and the right.
Barnier was the last to speak in the afternoon. He took the stand to applause from his party and the Macronists. "It is a moment of truth and a moment of responsibility," he said, amidst constant interruptions from the opposition benches. "I have tried to face reality, presenting a difficult financial text (...) This economic reality will not disappear due to a motion of censure."
In his final (assumed) intervention as Prime Minister, he specifically quoted Georges Pompidou, the only Prime Minister who fell in a motion of censure, in 1962: "In every circumstance, a man must seek morality and action." And he ended his speech as a farewell: "I feel honored to have been Prime Minister for three months. When this ends, it will remain an honor to have served the country."
The current situation in France is unprecedented since the last legislative elections in June. There is no precedent to look back on to find something similar: The Assembly is divided into three irreconcilable blocs (the left, the far-right, and the Macronist allies, the center-right), the President is deeply worn out, and there is no majority in the Assembly. The current Executive was appointed just three months ago after many complications.
Until now, in France, parties have always aligned with each other solely to prevent the far right from advancing or winning at the polls. This is known as the sanitary or republican cordon against Marine Le Pen. Now, parties are voting together, not to stop her, but against the Government, whose Prime Minister was appointed by Emmanuel Macron, who is actually the one bearing all the political weariness and frustration.
The far-left of La France Insoumise, led by the controversial Jean-Luc Mélenchon, will vote for the same censure as the far-right of Marine Le Pen. Both parties have raised the specter of the other, but now they unite against Macron. "It doesn't matter which party is behind the motion," said Jordan Bardella, president of National Rally, Le Pen's party, justifying their decision to join forces with the left.
For the motion to succeed, 289 votes out of the 577 deputies are needed. The left bloc has 182 and Le Pen's party has 143.
The motion of censure was presented on Monday after the Prime Minister approved this year's budgets by decree, without going through a parliamentary vote, using Article 49.3 of the Constitution that allows it. These are the most austere budgets in decades. "They are a danger to France," justified Bardella.
Macron said on Tuesday that he does not intend to resign and will continue until the end of his term in 2027. Until then, it seems unlikely that the country can overcome the political deadlock. The President, who will conclude his visit to Saudi Arabia today and return to France for the reopening events of Notre Dame Cathedral this weekend, cannot call for legislative elections again until a year has passed since the last ones (which were in June). He would not be able to do so until the summer.
If the motion is successful, a new Prime Minister will have to be appointed, although given the instability, there may not be many willing to take on the role. If the motion is carried out this afternoon, Barnier will have been the shortest-serving Prime Minister in France. Unless Macron decides to reappoint him, as happened with Georges Pompidou in 1962 when Charles de Gaulle was President. One would have to go back to that year to find a somewhat similar situation to the current one. Another option is for Macron to appoint a team of technocrats to govern the country and approve budgets until the period passes and elections can be held again.