"Don't forget what is at stake!"... UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, delivered one of his impassioned speeches to the delegates from nearly 200 countries participating in the final stages of the COP29 in Baku, dubbed the "financing summit," where an agreement on economic aid to less favored countries to take mitigation and adaptation measures to climate change is eagerly awaited.
Developing countries had previously estimated a trillion dollars annually (950 billion euros). Developed countries seem willing to offer between 200,000 to 300,000 billion per year in direct aid, plus private financing and new taxes. The COP29 presidency caused astonishment on both sides by leaving the contentious number as a significant "X" in the final draft of the text.
All denounced the "ambiguity," lack of ambition, and even the "insult" contained in that unknown. The commotion was such that the Azerbaijani presidency had to issue a statement justifying the absence of a final number as the New Collective Quantified Goal (NSQG), which was the objective of this COP29 that began on November 11 and is expected to exceed the announced deadline of November 22.
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"The next text will be shorter and will present a range of numbers as a financial target that can serve as a landing zone for consensus," read the official statement. "We are reaching the endgame, and we believe there is progress in sight. Everyone must now participate in the text review process to make the ambitious decision we need."
Among the delegates, however, there was concern about the ability of COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev, who worked for 26 years at the state oil company Socar, to truly mediate and resist the pressures of "petrostates" like Saudi Arabia. Criticism has also been directed at the role played by the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, who caused astonishment on the first day with his praise for gas and oil and whose interference in the process has not been well received.
The outcome is starting to resemble a sequel to COP28 in Dubai, where invectives against Sultan Al Jaber intensified, who simultaneously served as CEO of the oil company ADNOC and as president of the climate summit. Al Jaber suddenly disappeared from the scene in the final hours and narrowly escaped with an agreement for "a transition away from fossil fuels" approved by consensus.
On that occasion, António Guterres lost patience and did not stay for the final fireworks. The UN Secretary-General, however, seems determined to set the pace this time. "Failure is not an option," he declared on Thursday. "Increased funding (for climate change) is essential. Amid current geopolitical divisions and uncertainties, the world needs countries to be united."
"This is not a zero-sum game," Guterres emphasized. "Funding is not a gift. It is an investment against the devastation that uncontrolled climate can cause us all. It is an initial outlay for a safer world and a more prosperous future in all nations on Earth."
Guterres' concern has a name: Donald Trump. The US President-elect has already influenced Argentina's withdrawal from COP29, ordered by Javier Milei. Trump has announced his intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement again, and a cascade effect among countries with hard-right governments could blow up any financing agreement if postponed to COP30 in Brazil.
The new goal aims to increase tenfold the $100 billion annually committed in 2009 at COP15 in Copenhagen (which ended in failure in all other aspects). However, that figure took more than a decade to reach and is considered entirely insufficient given the increasing impact of climate change and the need to accelerate the energy transition in less favored countries.
To illustrate the inequality, a fact emerged at COP29: in 2022, all of Africa added less solar capacity than Belgium. At least 30 African countries ended that same year without adding large-scale solar capacity. The installed power in the entire African continent is one-fifth of cloudy Germany's capacity. Programs like the World Bank's Scaling Solar, which successfully started in Zambia and Senegal, came to a standstill.
The New Collective Quantified Goal (NSQG) aims to break that barrier and promote the financing of renewable energies in developing countries, as well as investing in adaptation and protection measures against the increasing impact of extreme weather. The amount being considered since the start of COP29 is at least a trillion dollars annually, starting from 2030 or 2035.
Developing countries demand that most economic aid be in grants rather than loans to avoid worsening the debt snowball. There is a study on how to involve the private sector and implement measures such as new taxes on fossil fuels (or even a global wealth tax).
"We have been very clear and we do not want to leave Baku without a number," declared Adonia Ayebare, Uganda's delegate and spokesperson for the Group of 77 plus China. "This text is not acceptable to us, and we want a firm and clear commitment," emphasized Ali Mohamed, head of the Kenyan delegation. Samoa. A spokesperson for Samoa, on behalf of island nations, also lamented the presidency's initial proposal: "The critical element of the puzzle is missing."
The European Union, for its part, has not wanted to commit to a figure until the mechanisms and resources are clarified. Nevertheless, the European Commissioner for Climate Action described the draft as "clearly unacceptable." British Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, Ed Miliband, who used the summit to launch the Global Clean Energy Alliance, also stressed that the text is insufficient and must reflect the needs and interests of developing countries: "There are still differences, and we cannot afford to fail."
Brazil and Australia have perhaps been the two most active countries at COP29 and have also offered to act as intermediaries to build bridges between the global north and south. "I have heard that the request from developing countries could reach 1.3 trillion," acknowledged Australian Minister of Climate Change Chris Bowen. "The main difference lies, however, in the funding criteria, in what part can be considered as grants and what part as loans and private investment."
NGOs were also very critical of the presidency's proposal. "We have to put a number on the table, or we risk leaving without a result," declared Tasneem Essop, head of the Climate Action Network International. "Developing countries came to Baku hoping for a significant financing agreement, and yet we see how developed countries continue to play with the lives of people on the front lines of the climate disaster, manipulating and subverting critical negotiations."
"Nothing less than a trillion dollars in grants per year will be enough to address the impacts of climate change and ensure a fair transition to a safer future," warned Joseph Sikulo, Pacific Director of 350.org.
"The hypocrisy with which the negotiations are advancing is evident with the new text," concluded Javier Andaluz of Ecologists in Action. "While the numbers of the needs of the global South are clear, so is the inability of the global North to come to this summit with their homework done. In these final hours of COP29, we demand climate reparations that allow for a rapid, fair, and definitive decarbonization."