Russia has used a "new ballistic missile" for the first time in history, according to Kiev. Although it was not armed with any nuclear warhead, which is exactly its intended purpose, the Kremlin wanted to send a political message to Ukraine and its Western allies in response to the use of missiles produced by the US, France, and the UK on Russian soil.
The Kremlin chose the RS-26 Rubezh for this purpose, one of the most experimental Russian nuclear triad devices, but Putin referred to it as "Oreshnik." In theory, after testing it in 2011 with an accident, it did have a successful flight in a 2012 test hitting the target after traveling 6,000 kilometers. In theory, its development was not yet completed, so the launch against the Ukrainian city of Dnipro confirms that it is now integrated and available to Russian forces. The symbolic power of the target is not coincidental, as Dnipro, a city of nearly a million people, was the capital of the missile industry in Soviet times and therefore a population restricted to foreigners.
The launch serves as a warning to Kiev and Washington, but being the first of its kind against a target in war, it will offer the West the opportunity to access its secrets from the remains left in the destroyed building in Dnipro. These types of missiles, weighing 50 tons, are usually displayed as a show of force in the classic parades on Red Square during the 'Victory Day' celebrations.
It is still unclear whether the missile, the size of a tanker truck, carried a conventional explosive warhead with six independent warheads or what is called a dummyhead, meaning it was carrying a test head and therefore inert, although due to its size and its impact on a civilian population, it poses a huge risk.
The missile was launched from the Astrakhan region in the Caucasus, and beyond the nuclear warning its launch signifies, it makes no military sense to launch an intercontinental missile so close. The Rubezh is designed to reach Western Europe with a range of about 6,000 kilometers, meaning it has an intermediate range. During this invasion, Russia has also used other weapons capable of carrying nuclear warheads, such as the Iskander and Kinzhal missiles, common in cities like Kiev, Kharkiv, or Dnipro.
Could this change the course of the invasion? Hardly. Putin has not yet initiated any atomic escalation, only doctrinal and declarative, and the missile launch does not signify the beginning of one either. First, he must alert all personnel in his nuclear triad, move his weapons from the arsenals, conduct a test in an uninhabited area...
Will Ukraine respond to the launch? It also seems unlikely that Kiev has a trump card up its sleeve, aside from continuing to use its Western missiles in a limited manner, which is what it is authorized to do regardless of Russia's actions. After the launch, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, seemed to dramatize a moment of tension by receiving a call during a press conference in which her interlocutor tells her not to say anything about the missile: "Masha, regarding the ballistic missile attack that Western media are talking about, we do not comment."