Russia has used an intercontinental missile for the first time in history, according to Kiev. Although it was not armed with a nuclear warhead, which is its intended purpose, the Kremlin wanted to send a message to Ukraine and its Western allies in response to the use of missiles produced by the US, France, and the UK on Russian soil.
This is the RS-26 Rubezh, one of the most modern nuclear devices in the Russian triad. In theory, after testing it in 2011 with an accident, it did achieve a successful flight in a 2012 test by hitting the target after traveling 6,000 kilometers. In theory, its development was not yet completed, so the launch against the Ukrainian city of Dnipro confirms that it is now integrated and available to Russian forces.
The launch serves as a warning to Kiev and Washington, but being the first of its kind against a target in war, it will offer the West the opportunity to access its secrets from the remains left in the destroyed building in Dnipro. These types of missiles are usually displayed as a show of force in the classic parades on Red Square during the 'Victory Day' celebrations.
It is still unclear whether the missile, the size of a tanker truck, carried a conventional explosive warhead or a dummyhead, meaning it was armed with a test head and therefore unarmed, although due to its size and its impact on a civilian population, it poses a significant risk.
The missile was launched from the Astrakhan region in the Caucasus, and beyond the nuclear warning that its launch carries, it makes no military sense to launch an intercontinental missile so close. The Rubezh is designed to reach Western Europe with a range of about 6,000 kilometers.
Can this change the course of the invasion? Hardly. Putin has not yet initiated any atomic escalation, only doctrinal and declarative, and the launch of this missile does not signify the beginning of one. First, he must put all personnel of his nuclear triad on alert, move his weapons from the arsenals, conduct a test in an uninhabited area...
Will Ukraine respond to the launch? It also seems unlikely that Kiev has a trump card up its sleeve, aside from continuing to use its Western missiles in a limited manner, which is what it is authorized to do regardless of Russia's actions.