The United States government has authorized Ukraine to use ATACMS ground-to-ground missiles, which theoretically could reach the Moscow region, including the outskirts of the city. This is reported by US media, specifying that, at least initially, the projectiles can only be used in defense by Ukraine of the territory it occupies within Russia since August, in the Kursk region.
The Biden Administration has decided to escalate the conflict in Ukraine. The use of Western long-range missiles to attack Russian soil is something that Kiev has been requesting for over a year. This decision, which had not been made until now due to very specific Russian threats, will allow Ukraine to attack Russia but only to defend its positions in the Russian region of Kursk. It is, according to these reports, a response to the on-the-ground deployment of thousands of North Korean soldiers and weaponry from Pyongyang to drive the Ukrainians out of that area.
This action marks the first foreign occupation of Russian territory since the German invasion of World War II. Nearly four months after the start of the Ukrainian offensive, Moscow has been unable to regain 80% of the territory it lost, and has had to call upon at least 10,000 North Korean soldiers, who have entered combat supported by artillery also from that country. Currently, Kiev maintains control of about 800 square kilometers of Russian territory.
The Biden administration also manages to undermine Donald Trump's intentions to reach a peace agreement that could be very favorable to Russia. Why? If Ukraine manages to retain the space it currently holds in the Kursk region until January 20, the day of Trump's inauguration and the day marked by the president-elect to negotiate directly with Putin, the Russian autocrat will not be able to maintain his stance of imposing, in that hypothetical peace agreement, the "new territorial realities" resulting from the invasion, because it would have to include, much to Putin's dismay, that part of Kursk as Ukrainian conquest, just as Moscow claims parts of the Ukrainian provinces of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk.
This move, which once again crosses another red line for Moscow, clearly describes the decisive moment of the conflict we are in. If this is true, it also means that France and the United Kingdom may authorize Kiev to use their Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles against targets in deep Russia, as long as those targets are involved in operations in Kursk.
What does the lifting of this veto mean for this war? Russia must quickly move all its logistics about 400 kilometers away from the front line if it does not want Ukraine to destroy it, with the cost to Moscow that entails. And that's just considering what can be moved. Other targets, such as railway junctions, bridges, weapon factories, and military or air bases, are now targets for Ukraine.
The northernmost point of the front line is approximately 500 kilometers from Red Square. Given that the range of the ATACMS varies, according to different versions, between 72 and 300 kilometers, the southern and eastern regions of the Russian capital are theoretically within the missile's range. Each projectile carries between 350 and 950 bombs, which are dispersed over a wide area, making them ideal for attacking troop concentrations and equipment, but not command centers.
This means that the ATACMS will not only be used against Russian soldiers but also against the North Koreans, who have been sent by the dictator of that country, Kim Jong-un, in exchange for Russian military cooperation, possibly in the field of missiles and nuclear weapons. The decision also sends a message to US allies in Asia, especially the Philippines, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, who feel threatened by China and North Korea.
The fact that the US has authorized the use of ATACMS on the front line where the North Koreans are should alleviate South Korea's fears, as it was considering increasing its military aid to Ukraine to weaken its northern rival. The Seoul government has already provided significant military assistance to Ukraine, to the extent that the failed attack launched by Kiev in the summer of 2023 in the south of the country was colloquially known as "the Korean offensive" because all the artillery shells used came from that country.
The Biden administration had been heavily criticized by Ukraine supporters in the US for not allowing the use of ATCMS in Russian territory. Washington had resisted all pressures for fear that if it started being bombarded with these rockets, Russia would escalate, although the fact that Moscow has had to call on North Korea - a country that is anything but a technological power - to help it regain its own territory and Vladimir Putin's clear strategy of trying to minimize the impact of the war on the Russian community - which is the majority - of the country called that decision into question.
National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, has been the target of all the criticism for his alleged obstructionism in the use of these missiles. As a result, Ukraine has developed, with Western assistance, a significant drone force with which it has targeted objectives within the USSR, although the explosive charges of these devices are much lower than those of the ATCMS.
Finally, there is the issue of timing. Biden has waited until the last moment to give the green light to Kiev and even then, has done so in a limited way, although it is possible that in the coming weeks, he will relax the restrictions and allow the use of ATCMS outside the Kursk salient, which is how the occupied part of Russia is known.
On January 20, Trump's inauguration date
In any case, it is difficult to know the impact this will have, given that on January 20, the pro-Russian Donald Trump assumes the presidency with the goal of achieving peace between Russia and Ukraine. His Vice President, JD Vance, has advocated for a peace agreement between Moscow and Kiev that would practically mean a surrender by Ukraine. His candidate for National Intelligence Director, Tulsi Gabbard, is an absolute and staunch supporter of Russia not only in this war but in general. Trump is also surrounded by businessmen like Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, and Oliver Sacks who sympathize with Russia. Musk himself mocked the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, this past weekend.
On the other hand, the Secretary of State candidate, Marco Rubio, is on Ukraine's side, although it is not clear if he will have real influence in Washington or if he will be overwhelmed by the pro-Russian sector in the White House.
Biden's decision also has an impact on Germany, where Chancellor Olaf Scholz has so far rejected the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, with a range of 500 kilometers and more difficult to detect than the ATCMS. However, Germany is holding elections in February, and it is almost certain that Scholz will lose his position to the Christian Democrat Friedrich Merz. This week, Merz announced that if he comes to power, he will issue an ultimatum to Russia demanding a ceasefire, and if this is not complied with - which seems likely - he will deliver the Taurus missiles to Ukraine. All of this if by then Donald Trump has not already imposed a ceasefire that practically guarantees victory for Moscow.
In Kiev, the news is received with a mix of satisfaction and anger. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that "missiles speak for themselves" and that "such things are not announced." As Ukraine prepares for its first attacks (which, according to Reuters, will come this week), many wonder what would have happened with the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive of the summer of 2023 had it had the aid of these deadly and precise missiles. Now, the US position seems to be to prevent Ukraine from reaching the negotiation table in a weak position and to allow this weaponry to help it retain Kursk, a valuable and negotiable territory in any discussions about the end of the war.
What will Russia do? Escalate, as promised, but it is too early to know in what way. It was clear that the sending of the North Korean force would have a response, but we still do not know how South Korea will react, as they will not stand idly by.
This move comes a day after one of the biggest attacks against Ukraine in the almost three years of war that we have been experiencing, with over 120 missiles of various types, including hypersonic ones, and dozens of Iranian drones, which destroyed half of the country's energy distribution capacity.
Furthermore, in the background is the recent call from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Vladimir Putin, which marks a break in the allied stance of isolating the Russian autocrat. Many in Europe have criticized the German's appeasement attempt at a crucial moment in the war and with a leader wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes. The response to that call to the Kremlin was the brutal bombing on Saturday night. On the other hand, Macron, the French president, has reacted to this U.S. decision by saying that "Putin does not want peace and is not ready to negotiate it."