The Baku Climate Summit (COP29) started this Monday with bad news that align with the temperature records set in recent months and years.
According to the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Climate Report, 2024 is on track to become the hottest year on record as the global average temperature of the Earth's surface between January and September was 1.54 degrees above pre-industrial levels (with an uncertainty range of ±0.13 °C). These temperatures have been favored by the natural warming episode from the El Niño phenomenon. So far, 2023 holds the record as the hottest year, and according to the WMO analysis, "it is likely that the global average temperature has exceeded all previously recorded values for 16 consecutive months (between June 2023 and September 2024) and often by a wide margin."
These are concerning data as this year's records add to those of previous years, to the extent that according to this report, the period between 2015 and 2024 will be the hottest decade ever recorded since measurements began.
However, as clarified in a statement by Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO, "the fact that both monthly and annual warming have temporarily exceeded" 1.5°C "does not mean that we have failed to achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement to keep the increase in the global average surface temperature well below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels."
To consider that the warming levels established in the 2015 Paris Agreement have been exceeded, "these must be exceeded for a prolonged period, usually on the order of decades or more, although the agreement itself does not provide a specific definition," as stated in this report. According to preliminary estimates by the WMO's international team of experts, "global long-term warming is currently likely to be around 1.3°C compared to the reference period of 1850-1900."
Therefore, Celeste Saulo has urged countries participating in COP29 "to continue efforts to limit this temperature increase to 1.5°C," as outlined in the Paris Agreement.
In addition to the records of land surface temperatures, extreme weather events are causing "devastation in communities and economies worldwide," sea level rise, and ocean warming. In 2023, the heat content of the oceans was the highest on record, and according to preliminary data in this report, it has remained at comparable levels in 2024. "Ocean warming rates show a particularly sharp increase in the last two decades. Between 2005 and 2023, the ocean has absorbed, on average, about 3.1 million terawatt-hours (TWh) of heat each year, which is 18 times the global energy consumption in 2023."
Another data point in this report is the rise in sea levels, a figure linked to ocean warming - which leads to thermal expansion of its waters - glacier melt, and ice sheet loss. Between 2014 and 2023, the global mean sea level rose at a rate of 4.77 mm per year, more than double the rate between 1993 and 2002. "The El Niño effect made this rise even faster in 2023. Preliminary data for 2024 show that, with the decline of the El Niño episode, the rate of sea level rise is following the increasing trend observed between 2014 and 2022," the report specifies.
Loss of sea ice and glaciers
There is also concerning news regarding the loss of sea ice and glaciers, which is worsening. In 2023, glaciers experienced the greatest retreat since measurements began in 1953, attributed to extreme melting episodes in North America and Europe. In Switzerland, glaciers lost around 10% of their residual volume in the periods 2021/2022 and 2022/2023.
Regarding Antarctica, the report details that sea ice extent was the second lowest ever observed. In the Arctic, the minimum sea ice extent after summer melting was the seventh lowest in the satellite record, while the maximum extent was slightly below the long-term average for the period 1991-2020.
The World Meteorological Organization's report was released during the first day of this summit in Azerbaijan, where concerns arise over Donald Trump's victory in the US elections, which could weaken the final agreement. During his first term, he withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement; Joe Biden re-entered it, and there are fears he may withdraw again.
As these two weeks of negotiations begin this Monday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres has reiterated what is at stake: "The climate catastrophe undermines public health, exacerbates inequalities, undermines sustainable development, and shakes the foundations of peace. And the most affected are the most vulnerable."