Americans not only conclude today the voting process that will decide the head of state and government of their country. They also elect thousands of local positions and decide on hundreds of referendums. Among all the elections, two have special significance not only for the country but also for the rest of the world: those of Congress, which is composed of two chambers, the Senate and the House of Representatives.
After securing seats in Ohio and West Virginia, the Democrats have lost control of the Senate. As expected, former West Virginia governor, Jim Justice, has taken the seat left vacant by the independent -formerly a Democrat until last year- Joe Manchin. The loss is no surprise, just as it is not surprising that Justice has overwhelmingly prevailed in one of the most Trumpist states in the United States. A Republican Senate would greatly facilitate the formation of a cabinet by Donald Trump.
The Senate has more institutional relevance, as it confirms the appointments proposed by the president for the cabinet or federal judges, and also must ratify international treaties (something that is currently impossible due to the factionalism in U.S. politics). The chamber is evenly split, with 52 Republicans and 48 Democrats. In these cases, the vice president, who is also the Senate president, has a tie-breaking vote. In her four years in that role, Kamala Harris has always had a tied Senate. Consequently, she has set a record in the country's history for breaking ties.
Therefore, the control of the Senate is of critical importance for the future president. His cabinet depends on who has the majority in it. The same goes for his appointments to the Supreme Court, which, with its ban on abortion, has mobilized the Democratic women's vote to unprecedented levels. Finally, the possibility of agreements with Iran or with Russia regarding Ukraine should be approved by that chamber.
Each state has two senators, regardless of its population. Thus, each senator from California represents 22 million people; each senator from Wyoming 240,000. But they all have the same vote. Since Democrats tend to have a greater presence in more populous states, their disadvantage is evident.
In addition to this, there is the peculiar schedule for the renewal of senators. Every two years, one-third of them must be reelected. This time, it is the turn of 33 senators. Of these, 22 are Democrats and only 11 are Republicans. Therefore, it is more likely that the former will lose some seats.
Indeed, one seat is already lost, that of Joe Manchin, a very peculiar political figure who had managed to survive almost three decades as a Democrat, first, and then as an independent, in one of the most Trumpist states in the United States, West Virginia. Manchin is retiring, more to avoid being ousted, and his seat will be taken by a Republican.
Also in severe danger are other Democratic senators from Republican states, now converted to stricter Trumpism. The most obvious case is that of John Tester from Montana, who has held on for 12 years in a state where the only question in these elections is whether Donald Trump will get more than 80% of the votes, thus breaking the historical record of Ronald Reagan. Sherrod Brown in Ohio might also follow Tester's fate. Additionally, there are three Democratic Senate seats - in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan - that could turn Republican.
Facing this offensive, the Democratic Party has little to counterattack with. Paradoxically, the most vulnerable Republican senator is also the one who appears most on television, the one who in 2016 presented the most fierce battle against Donald Trump before becoming the biggest Trumpist on Earth, and an institution in one of the quintessential Republican states, Texas: Ted Cruz. He has won for Texas, defeating U.S. Representative Colin Allred and the Democrats' latest attempt to end decades of Republican dominance in the thriving state.
For the Democrats, the possibility of defeating Cruz would be a major moral victory, given the Texan politician's ability —although born in Canada— to infuriate his rivals. If the Republicans were to achieve a majority in the Senate, many of them would also secretly celebrate the demise of Cruz, whose real name is a very Cuban Eduardo, hidden under the anglicized Ted. The reason is Cruz's personality, which makes him disagreeable even to a den of 100 vipers like the U.S. Senate.
As his colleague Lindsey Graham —another convert to Trumpism, from which he renounced until Donald Trump became president— said, "if someone were to murder Ted Cruz in the Senate in plain view of everyone and the jury consisted only of senators, he would be declared innocent." That is the healthy, collegial spirit and respect for party colleagues prevailing in what Americans pompously call "the most noble deliberative body in the world".
The situation in the House of Representatives is also unclear. At this moment, the Republicans have a slim majority. Polls suggest they will be able to retain it, but again, everything will depend on two dozen districts where the winners will likely be decided by a few hundred votes.
The House also has its own peculiarities. Trump's influence is much stronger in it than in the Senate, which, however, causes the Republican Party to behave on many occasions as two or three different political factions in a state of permanent civil war. It does not seem that this situation will change whether Trump wins or Harris wins or whether the Republicans maintain their majority or not.