Initial consequences for the international economy after Donald Trump declared victory in the US presidential elections: The dollar and US fixed income rise, while bitcoin hits records.
The 'greenback' strengthens against the euro and other currencies due to the prospect of higher inflation with Trump's economic policy, based on protectionism and tariffs, which would make it more challenging for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates.
The dollar index, which measures this currency against a basket of rivals, rose by 1.5%. This is the largest single-day increase since September 2022.
The prospect of unchecked inflation and the high US public debt also increase the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond, reaching 4.46%. This is its highest level since early July, while the 30-year bond reached 4.63%, rising by 0.15 percentage points in its largest daily advance in over a year. These movements in the US could make financing more expensive for the most indebted countries worldwide.
Around 5 a.m. local time, the greenback was trading at 0.9309 euros (+1.76%) and at 154.07 yen (+1.62%) while the Republican candidate took the lead in the electoral count against his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris.
As forbitcoin, this asset surpassed $75,000 for the first time with a 9% increase and, despite a slight moderation, it is trading around that level, higher than the $73,797.98 recorded in March.
Trump's campaign promise to make the US a major global center for cryptocurrencies and to appoint individuals more favorable to these digital assets to regulatory positions is driving this surge. "In the crypto industry, the sentiment was of fighting with one arm tied behind the back for years and that could be coming to an end," stated Matthew Hogan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, to Bloomberg.
The ether, another popular cryptocurrency, was up by 6% and was trading at $2,585 around the same time.
"The price of bitcoin closely follows Trump's position in the polls" because for investors, "a Republican victory would imply an increase in the demand for digital currencies", said Russ Mould, an analyst at AJ Bell, before the elections.
This marks a shift for Trump, as he previously called digital currencies a "scam," but now he has become a strong advocate, contrasting with the Joe Biden Administration, which has advocated for stricter regulation. His vice president and Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, has recently tried to provide reassurances to cryptocurrency holders.
In European markets, there are contrasting trends depending on sectors benefiting from the expected improvement on Wall Street with Trump's low-tax program and regulation, or those that could be affected by skepticism towards renewable energy or his tariff pressure on EU exports.
The Ibex started the session lower - in contrast to major European indices - with a drop of nearly 1% due to the negative impact on renewable energy-related stocks such as Acciona, Iberdrola, and Solaria, and also due to the general slowdown in the banking sector.
In her congratulatory message to Trump, the President of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, reminds the future president that there is much at stake for both Western blocs if they do not cooperate: "Millions of jobs and billions in trade and investment on each side of the Atlantic depend on the dynamism and stability of our economic relationship."