Although the US elections are held on Tuesday, November 5, the news of the winner will take a little longer to be announced.
When will the election winner be known?
It is impossible to know for sure. In 2016, it was known within a few hours, but in 2020, there was no winner until Saturday, four days later. In 2000, the legal dispute lasted for weeks. The recounts are generally slow, even when using machines to deposit the ballots, due to the large number of votes and the lack of a uniform voting or counting system like in Spain. Usually, the results of most states are known overnight from the 5th to the 6th, but not necessarily all. The country also has different time zones, with a three-hour difference from coast to coast. Additionally, it is assumed that this year there could be many lawsuits, litigations, challenges, and fights that could delay the results in key states. So, if the polls are correct, it could take days. Or weeks if potential litigations end up in the Supreme Court, as in the year 2000.
But, is there a more specific estimate of the count?
All eyes are on the seven swing states: Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. And also, Iowa since the weekend. Georgia counts fast and has a lot of early voting, but in 2020 it took two weeks to declare a winner due to serious recounts and disputes. North Carolina has always been very quick, and in the last two elections, it had a winner before midnight local time (06:00 in Spain). However, in 2020, it took longer to declare a winner because Covid increased mail-in voting, which had additional days to arrive. Pennsylvania, perhaps the most important state four years ago, counts very slowly, starts counting ballots later than the rest, has many provisional votes to review, and litigations are expected. In 2020, AP declared Biden the winner on Saturday, four days later, because even though the count was not finished, they considered there was no way for Trump to catch up.
In 2020, Michigan had counted half of the votes by midnight, and the count was finished the next morning. If there are no surprises, a decision could be made by Wednesday afternoon local time. Wisconsin expects to have final results on Wednesday morning since it has a law that prohibits interrupting the count to sleep. Arizona, along with Pennsylvania, is expected to take the longest, according to experts. Days, probably. Due to the counting system and the many items to address (ballots spanning several pages), it will take a while.
What are the usual deadlines until the president's inauguration?
In most states, counties have a week to certify the results. The state secretaries have an additional 10 days. Governors must do the same before November 23. The Executive of each state prepares a Verification Certificate (Ascertainment) that includes the names of all individuals on the lists, the number of votes, and the names of those designated as electors. The Verification Certificate of your state is sent to the NARA (National Archives and Records Administration) as part of the official records of the presidential election. The meeting of the electors takes place on the first Tuesday after the second Wednesday of December following the general elections, which will be on the 17th. The electors meet in their respective states, where they cast their votes for president and vice president on separate ballots. The votes of the electors from your state are recorded on a Certificate of Vote, which is sent to Congress, where they are counted in a joint session on January 6 of the following year. Usually, the Vice President, in her capacity as President of the Senate, presides over the count in a strictly formal manner and announces the results. The President-elect takes the oath and is inaugurated on January 20.
What happens if there is a tie in the Electoral College and no candidate has 270 electors?
It has never happened that there is a tie at 269 electors, but in 1800 there was a tie between Jefferson and Burr. The scenario in 2024 is not very likely but not too far-fetched either. For example, if Harris wins the states Biden won in 2020, except Michigan and Pennsylvania. Or if Harris wins North Carolina and Trump wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada. There would also be a tie if Harris wins the "blue wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and Trump wins the other four swing states plus the second district of Nebraska, which covers Omaha and generally votes for Democrats. In that case, the decision on the future president would be made by the new Congress. There would be a vote, but it would not be based on the number of seats or size. Each of the 50 states would have a vote, and the one with the most state delegations would prevail. Everything points to Trump, as according to polls, he is expected to win in more states.
Who is the favorite in the presidential elections?
With polls, it is impossible to know. They reflect an almost perfect tie, both nationally and in the seven swing states of 2024: Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. There are all kinds of theories, estimates, and models that lean one way or the other depending on which factor is weighted. Iowa has become a protagonist in recent days due to an unexpected poll that puts Harris three points ahead in a state assumed to be safe for Republicans.
Who will win the House of Representatives and the Senate?
Currently, Republicans have a majority in the House of Representatives, while Democrats control the Senate, both by very narrow margins. Polls suggest that both parties could swap control of each chamber, with Democrats regaining the House of Representatives and Republicans the Senate. With conservatives almost certain to secure West Virginia, Montana could solidify the party's path to a Senate majority. Ohio or Maryland are also in dispute. In the House of Representatives, half a dozen districts in New York will likely hold the key.
What will Donald Trump do if he loses?
Trump has never accepted that he lost the 2020 elections. He continues to claim at his rallies, interviews, and even debates that it was a "theft" and that he won by a large margin. And no one in his party dares to say out loud that they lost, to avoid unleashing his anger. This Sunday, at an event in Pennsylvania, he was very clear: "Honestly, I shouldn't have left" the White House. "We did so well, we had a great... Now, at every polling station, there are hundreds of lawyers." So most analysts believe that on Tuesday, he will declare, in some way, that he is the winner again.
Are there precedents of a president having two non-consecutive terms?
Only one: Grover Cleveland won the popular vote in 1884, 1888, and 1892, and is the only case to date. If Trump were to win, he would be the second in history.