The United States is choosing its next president today, Tuesday, with the most divided society since the Civil War. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are putting everything on the line especially in seven states, known as swing states, which could be crucial in these presidential elections.
Polls for these 2024 US elections tell us that Trump and Harris are tied in voter intention, and any prediction about the election outcome is like flipping a coin.
There are all kinds of theories, estimates, and models that lean one way or the other depending on which factor is weighted. Iowa has become a protagonist in recent days, due to an unexpected poll that places Harris three points ahead in a state assumed to be safe for Republicans.
Additionally, it is impossible to know for sure when the winner of the 2024 US elections will be known. For example, in 2016, the winner of the elections was known within a few hours, but in 2020, there was no winner until Saturday, four days later.
The Decisive Early Voting in the US: Nearly Half of Voters Have Already Decided on a Candidate
Today, Tuesday, November 5, is not the day of the elections in the United States, but the day when elections that began on September 11, when Alabama started accepting votes, come to an end.
It is estimated that as of last Sunday, about 75 million citizens had voted, around 47% of the expected 160 million voters in these elections. Approximately 56% of these votes have been cast in person, both at polling stations and in street containers. The rest have been by mail.
However, trying to extrapolate the electoral outcome from early voting is a waste of time, among other things because the data is very fragmented. There is only information on participation and, in some cases, the political affiliation of those who have voted.
Despite all these nuances, the 75 million votes cast seem to paint a slightly more favorable picture for Kamala Harris than the polls.
An Unexpected Poll in Iowa Boosts Kamala Harris's Optimism
Saturday was a good day for Kamala Harris. Amid what seems like a perfect tie in the US election polls, the vice president ended the day with a surprise cameo on Saturday Night Live, one of the historic comedy shows on American television.
Additionally, a surprising piece of news shook up everyone following the elections. The latest poll by the Des Moines Register-Mediacom, published three days before the elections but with fieldwork conducted between October 28 and 31, showed Harris with an unexpected lead over Trump: 47% to 44%. If confirmed, it would mean that the main premise of the entire national campaign, that there are only seven swing states in play, would be wrong, and that there could actually be eight.
US Intelligence Foresees Russian Interference Intensifying Today
US intelligence predicted on Monday that the Russian interference already detected in the electoral campaign will intensify today, election day, and in the coming weeks.
The joint statement released by the FBI, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) emphasized that Russia is the "most active threat" and that influential actors from that country are creating videos and producing fake articles to undermine the legitimacy of these elections.
This false narrative, according to the statement, also aims to instigate fear among voters and suggest that Americans use violence against each other due to political preferences.
"These efforts risk inciting violence, even against election officials. We anticipate that Russian actors will publish additional content manufactured with these themes during election day and in the days and weeks following the closing of the polls," said the three intelligence agencies.
The FBI, ODNI, and CISA added that Iran remains a notable threat in these elections, where the Democratic candidate and Vice President, Kamala Harris, will face off against former Republican President Donald Trump (2017-2021).
The Small Indian Town Where Kamala Harris Has Ancestral Roots Prays for Her Victory
There is little that distinguishes the town of Thulasendrapuram from any other rural community in Tamil Nadu, except for its connection to the woman who could become the first leader of the United States with roots from South Asia.
While millions of Americans vote, Harris has support thousands of kilometers away, in a village surrounded by rice fields and coconut palms, where her mother's family has ancestral ties. They talk about her in the tea shop. There are banners and posters with her face all over the community.
"Our deity is a very powerful God. If we pray well to him, he will make her victorious", says M. Natarajan, the temple priest who leads the prayers in front of the image of the Hindu deity Ayyanar, a form of Shiva.
The New York Times Editorial Board Calls for Voting to End the Trump Era
The Editorial Board of the newspaper The New York Times published a brief message on its front page today urging American citizens to vote this Tuesday "to end the Trump era".
"You already know Donald Trump. He is not fit to lead. Watch him. Listen to those who know him best. He tried to subvert an election and remains a threat to democracy," the newspaper states in its four-paragraph message filled with underlined words linking to the paper's own news about the former Republican president's administration (2017-2021).
The newspaper adds that Trump "helped overturn the Roe ruling (on pregnant women's freedom to choose abortion), with terrible consequences. Trump's corruption and illegality go beyond elections: they are his ethics. He lies limitlessly. If reelected, the Republican Party will not stop him."
The Republican candidate, who is facing the Democratic vice president, Kamala Harris, in today's elections, "will use the government to pursue his opponents. He will implement a cruel policy of mass deportations," the Times concludes.