NEWS
NEWS

An unexpected survey in Iowa boosts Harris' optimism two days before the elections

Updated

The data suggests that she has managed to rebuild the 'voters' coalition' that allowed Biden to prevail in 2020, but the technical tie still remains

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris.
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris.AP

Saturday was a good day for Kamala Harris. With just a couple of days left until the elections in the US, amidst evident fatigue, high stress levels, and overwhelming and confusing information flow, in the midst of what seems like a perfect tie in the polls, the vice president ended the day with a surprise cameo on Saturday Night Live, one of the historic comedy shows on American television. She appeared in a scene alongside Maya Rudolph, the actress who usually parodies her speech patterns.

While Donald Trump reinforces his negative, sometimes apocalyptic message, describing the country as a "dumpster fire" in the hands of criminal gangs and with an overflowing immigration issue that puts everything at risk, Harris continues to focus on messages of optimism and hope. Interwoven with accusations of fascism towards her opponent, but emphasizing more on opportunities than problems, if only because she has been part of the Executive for four years. Therefore, instead of appearing angry and pessimistic, her actions aim to uplift the audience. And on Saturday, she had a good reason to be upbeat herself.

A surprising piece of news shocked everyone closely following the elections. The latest Des Moines Register-Mediacom poll, published three days before the elections but with fieldwork conducted between October 28 and 31, shows Harris with an unexpected lead over Trump: 47% to 44%. If confirmed, it would mean that the main premise of the entire national campaign, that there are only seven swing states in play, is incorrect, and that there could actually be eight.

The poll, with a sample of 808 likely voters including those who have already voted and those who say they will definitely vote, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points and is conducted by Selzer & Co., led by the renowned pollster Ann Selzer, one of the few who accurately captured the hidden Trump vote in the past. The data is within the margin of error, practically, but what stands out is that in June, Trump had an 18-point lead over Joe Biden before he dropped out of his re-election campaign. And in September, he was still comfortably ahead of Harris.

The implications are significant. This scenario had not been considered possible, and that's why neither of the candidates has set foot in the state, or the region in general, during the campaign, focusing on the seemingly decisive territories: Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. Adding one more piece would make the puzzle much more complex, but also more open.

Trump's advisors downplay the significance, pointing out past errors. In 2020, an ABC poll had Biden 17 points ahead in Wisconsin, and he won by a narrow margin. And in 2016, Hillary Clinton led by as much as 12 points nationally, and lost. She garnered 2.8 million more votes than Trump, but lost.

The New York Times, with Siena, has published its latest poll this Sunday, the definitive one, and it follows the same trend as all previous polls: a technical tie with Harris gaining ground among the latest undecided voters in the so-called Sun Belt, while everything tightens in the Rust Belt. The vice president would be three points ahead in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. A complete tie in Pennsylvania. And Trump would be one point ahead in Michigan, where the Arab vote is crucial, and in Georgia. And four points ahead in Arizona, where immigration is the main issue.

According to their analysis, the data suggests that "Harris has largely reassembled the Democratic coalition that prevailed in the swing states in 2020 and continues to win among Black, Hispanic, and young voters. "Just a few months ago, Trump had a 9 or 12-point lead in Georgia or Nevada against Biden," the newspaper explains. "At the same time, Trump has solidified support among white working-class voters in the final stretch, even erasing Harris' lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania. The battleground map now looks much like that of 2020," they add. The researchers acknowledge, however, that it is possible, once again, that Trump's support may not be accurately reflected. "In these final surveys, white Democrats have shown a 16% higher likelihood of responding than white Republicans. This is a greater disparity than in our previous surveys this year, and not much better than the final surveys of 2020, even after the pandemic has ended. This raises the possibility of the polls underestimating Trump. We do a lot to take this into account, but in the end, there are no guarantees," they admit.

In fact, renowned analysts like Nate Silver indicate that this year's polls have a serious problem. Not because of the Trump vote, but because they believe there is significant herding, too much adjustment, to avoid those errors. According to Silver, it is practically impossible for so many polls to be showing such similar results, with minimal differences between candidates, around the 48-49% tie. Not some well above and others below, but all sheltering according to his theory in the middle.

Harris' team is more optimistic in the last days. They have more money that they can dedicate to last-minute efforts. And more confidence. According to The Washington Post, last Wednesday, Future Forward, the main external group supporting Harris, privately warned that her chances were decreasing. Internal reports dated October 24 and 30 indicated she only had a 37% chance of winning, down from 54% at the beginning of October. But those chances reportedly rose back to 49% on Saturday, according to the newspaper's sources.

The key, both in Iowa and in the rest of the open states, is that Harris is consolidating minority support, reviving Biden's winning coalition, something that was not so clear a few weeks ago. And the role of women, in all age groups and demographics. The issue of abortion and reproductive rights is a very effective mobilizer, including in Iowa. And the Republican leader's message this week, saying that he will "protect women whether they like it or not," seems to be even more damaging than racist jokes about Puerto Ricans from a comedian at his rally at Madison Square Garden in New York.