Experts in US presidential elections claim that something always happens in October that powerfully influences voters (especially the undecided), who have their appointment on the first Tuesday after the first Friday of November: this year, November 5th, in five days. This time, the so-called "October surprise" is garbage.
Following an unfortunate comment by a comedian at Trump's rally at Madison Square Garden last Sunday about Puerto Rico, an island he said is "on top of a pile of garbage," was followed by the also unwise statement by the current president, Joe Biden, that "the 'garbage' are those who support Donald Trump."
So, the Republican candidate wore an orange reflective vest like those worn by waste collection workers, got on a garbage truck labeled with his campaign logo at the Austin Straubel airport in Green Bay, Wisconsin, and held a press conference from there.
The garbage truck with Trump's campaign logo.Julia Demaree NikhinsonAP
Both Trump and the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, are touring key states - those that will decide the next US president - during the final stretch of the campaign. Polls in the seven so-called swing states indicate a victory for the Republican but by a narrow margin that does not clearly define the outcome of next Tuesday.
Harris confirmed on Wednesday (having visited North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) that she had spoken the day before with Biden, as reported by the AP, but they did not refer to the words they used in response to the garbage and Puerto Rico issue. The president said on Tuesday night that "the only garbage I see floating out there are his supporters," referring to Trump.
The Democratic candidate, who had just held a large rally in Washington invoking unity when Biden made that statement, stated that if she reaches the White House: "I will represent all Americans, including those who do not vote for me."
Democratic candidate Kamala Harris greets the Wisconsin Badgers women's volleyball team on Wednesday before speaking at a campaign rally at the Alliant Energy Center in Madison, Wisconsin.Jacquelyn MartinAP
Following his words, Biden quickly sent a message on social media trying to clarify his comments. "Your demonization of Latinos is inconceivable," Biden said about Trump. "That's all I meant."
The closest elections in modern US history: victory will be decided in just a handful of states
Which are the swing states in these elections?
The goal for Republicans and Democrats in the elections on November 5th is to reach 270 electors, the simple majority of the Electoral College. In the US, this is the institution that elects the president and is made up of a total of 538 members from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, where Washington is located.
Most states usually do not change their color (blue for Democrats; red for Republicans), except for seven that attract all the attention as their vote is not initially decided, and they are usually called swing states. These are:
Pennsylvania (has 19 delegates):
Pennsylvania is considered one of the most decisive swing states in these elections. It has 19 votes in the Electoral College and is the most populous among the undecided states. Although it usually voted for the Democratic Party, in 2016 it changed its trend and chose Donald Trump, something that changed four years later. Rural roots coexist with major cities like Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.
Georgia, the state that Trump tried to contest in a devious way in 2020, will have all eyes on it and its 16 delegates. The very close results from four years ago have led both candidates to visit the territory several times during the campaign. Democrats have made a strong appeal to African American voters, with polls favoring Trump.
North Carolina (has 16 delegates):
North Carolina has 16 electoral votes and the recent memory of Hurricane Helene, which killed nearly 100 people last September in the town of Asheville and destroyed a quarter of the state. A tragedy, around which there were several conspiracy theories, and which will most likely mark the process. The middle class has been the target of the candidates.
Michigan (has 15 delegates):
Michigan has 15 delegates in the Electoral College. In 2016, Trump won by a slim margin of 11,000 votes, which Biden surpassed in 2020 by 154,000. Although Kamala Harris started her campaign leading in the polls in this state, Trump started gaining ground from September and dangerously approaching the current vice president. According to a survey by The New York Times/Sienna from that time, the most concerning issues in this state were the economy (24%), abortion (17%), and immigration (14%), the first and third being the focus of the Republican candidate in the final stretch of the campaign.
The border with Mexico is a major issue in the state of Arizona. Historically Republican, the state has been shifting in recent times due to the increasing Latino population, currently at 31%, and issues such as abortion rights, which will be put to a vote in these elections. The most concerning issues are immigration (31%), the economy (20%), and housing (11%). Arizona has 11 electoral votes.
Wisconsin (has 10 delegates):
Wisconsin, part of the 'Rust Belt,' the manufacturing belt that went into crisis from the 1970s onwards, has 10 electoral votes and a Democratic past that Donald Trump questioned in 2016, although Biden regained it in the 2020 elections. The economy and abortion rights are the most concerning topics for the state's residents. The population over 18 years old is 86% white, 5% Black, and 4% Hispanic. Nearly 60% of registered voters opposed the US Supreme Court's decision to overturn the Roe vs. Wade case, which allowed abortion.
The state hosting Las Vegas, with six electoral votes, has been focused recently on the approval of a lithium mine that has finally been greenlit. Inflation and housing prices are pressing issues in a state still feeling the effects of the pandemic. Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the country, around 5.5%. Although Nevada has not voted Republican since 2004, experts consider it a 'purple' state, neither red nor blue, a mix of both tendencies. Independents also play a significant role.
After November 5th and the certification of the votes, the 538 electors will go to their state capitals (a meeting set for the Monday following the second Wednesday of December, after the elections. This year it will be on November 25th) and there they will vote for the candidate (or candidates, in the case of Nebraska and Maine) chosen by their state. The next step is the session in the Capitol where these electoral votes are counted, and the election result is declared (since the mid-20th century, it has been held on January 6th at 1 p.m.). The vice president, in this case Vice President Kamala Harris, will preside over the session and announce the name of the next commander-in-chief. The transfer of power and the inauguration will take place on January 20th.