Donald Trump continues to slowly climb in the intention-to-vote polls, now for five consecutive weeks. The Republican candidate is likely to win the elections in the United States on November 5th if current predictions hold. Although the margin separating him from his opponent, Kamala Harris, remains narrow. However, everything, even if it may not seem so, remains open. Not in vain, all analysts assure that we are facing the most contested elections in the US since the 19th century.
In the popular vote, the Vice President of the Joe Biden administration remains in the lead, although in this aspect too, the gaps are narrowing to between one and two points, which falls within the margin of error of most polls. The Economist, which averages polls, places the gap between them at 1.3 points: 49.2 to 47.9. Fivethirtyeight, which also works with poll averages, places Harris's lead over Trump at just one point: 48% for the Democrat compared to 47% for the Republican.
Nevertheless, in the United States, the winner is not the one who gets the most votes, but the one who obtains the most votes in the Electoral College, that is, the one who wins in the swing states, as in most states, it is already clear whether the Republican candidate or the Democrat will win.
In the complex electoral system of the United States, the President of the Government is decided by the 538 electoral votes that are chosen in each of the 50 states of the country. Each state has a vote weight proportional to its population. However, the vast majority do not proportionally choose their delegates but give all electoral votes to the winning candidate, even if they win by just one vote.
For example, California distributes 55 electoral votes, which always go to the Democratic side even if the blue candidate wins by a narrow margin. In this case, Harris leads Trump by 26 points in the polls, so it is clear who will win in the western American state. At the opposite end, Montana, which only contributes three votes, is always Republican: and here Trump leads the Vice President by 19 points.
Therefore, the key polls to determine the next president are those that predict the outcome in the seven swing states: Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (six).
Kamala Harris already has 226 electoral votes as very likely or secure - adding those from the states where she will win against Trump - and Trump has 219. The magic number to become President of the United States is to reach 270 Electoral College votes. Therefore, the key lies in the mentioned seven states where the candidates are closely matched, and there the former president has been gaining an advantage in recent weeks.
Most polls, compiled by Fivethirtyeight, predict Trump as the winner in five of those six states: this is the case in Pennsylvania, the most populous and with the most votes, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. But in some of them, the lead is minimal. In Wisconsin and Michigan, there is currently a technical tie or a slight advantage for Harris.
In 2020, Biden won in six of those seven states, some by a very narrow margin, securing the Presidency. Trump only won in North Carolina. Now, polls show the opposite, but the difference is so minimal in some, that dozens of electoral votes can change sides by a handful of votes.
In Wisconsin, for example, which awards 10 electoral votes, some polls predict the former president winning by a narrow margin while others give all its votes to the Vice President by up to two points of difference. In Michigan (15 votes), the situation is similar. Harris and Trump are competing for victory with differences of one point, depending on the poll.
Pennsylvania, the most important of all because it distributes 19 vital votes, was in Harris's hands until early October. But in recent days, Trump has tied or even surpassed the Vice President by a small margin.
Georgia, finally, could give its 16 votes to either of the two candidates. The latest polls give a slight one-point advantage to the Republican, who a few weeks ago was winning more comfortably.
Therefore, everything is still open. Despite the apparent advantage of the magnate and former president, the margin of error in polls, last-minute decided votes, and the crucial six remaining campaign days are essential for who will lead the future of the United States and, to a large extent, the world.