The phrase "one man, one vote" (which today would change "man" to "person") that used to define universal suffrage does not make sense in the complicated electoral system of the USA to elect a president. A system that also requires prior registration to cast a ballot. What matters there is not the direct vote, but the delegates or electors assigned to each state for the Electoral College, an institution created by the 'founding fathers' that remains in place despite criticisms.
Each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia (where the capital, Washington, is located) are assigned a number of delegates equal to their representatives in the House and Senate. All of them, except Nebraska and Maine, which also consider who wins in each electoral district, award all their votes to the party that won in their state.
Therefore, if for example, Trump wins in a state traditionally Republican like Texas, it won't matter how many votes Kamala Harris got there. All the state's votes will go to the president. The same will happen in California, a Democratic stronghold, which will not count towards the New York magnate's tally.
Carlota García Encina, principal researcher at the Real Instituto Elcano, explains in her article 'Elections in the United States: campaign, transition, and inauguration' how the Electoral College model, used only in presidential elections and not in legislative ones, was first outlined in the Constitution of 1787: "It was explicitly rejected that popular vote would elect the presidency because the founding fathers did not trust that voters would make a wise choice."
Each state has two votes in the Electoral College, regardless of its population, plus additional votes based on its members in the House of Representatives. This is why small and medium-sized states like Vermont or Wyoming have a more pronounced representation than heavily populated states like California or Texas.
The goal for Republicans and Democrats on November 5th is to reach 270 electors, the simple majority of the Electoral College, which consists of 538 members. Most states usually do not change their color (blue for Democrats; red for Republicans), except for seven that attract all the attention as their vote is not predetermined, often referred to as swing states, each with its own characteristics and priorities. In these elections, the candidates do not surpass each other by more than a two-point difference.
The seven swing states:
Pennsylvania is considered one of the most decisive swing states in these elections. It has 19 electoral votes and is the most populous among the undecided. Although it usually voted for the Democratic Party, in 2016 it changed its trend and went for Donald Trump, something that changed four years later. Rural roots coexist with major cities like Philadelphia or Pittsburgh.
Georgia, the state that Trump tried to contest in a dubious manner in 2020, will have all eyes on it and its 16 delegates. The tight results from four years ago have led both candidates to visit the state several times during the campaign. Democrats have made a strong appeal to African American voters, with polls favoring Trump.
North Carolina (16 delegates):
North Carolina has 16 electoral votes and the recent memory of Hurricane Helene, which killed nearly 100 people last September in Asheville and devastated a quarter of the state. A tragedy that will likely influence the process, with the middle class being the target of the candidates.
Michigan has fifteen delegates in the Electoral College. In 2016, Trump won by a slim margin of 11,000 votes, which Biden surpassed in 2020 by 154,000. Although Kamala Harris started leading in the polls in this state, Trump gained momentum from September onwards and dangerously approached the current vice president. According to a September poll by The New York Times/Sienna, the main concerns in this state were the economy (24%), abortion (17%), and immigration (14%), the first and third being the focus of the Republican candidate in the final stretch of the campaign.
The border with Mexico is a major issue in Arizona. Historically Republican, the state has been shifting due to the increasing Latino population, currently at 31%, and issues like abortion rights, which will be on the ballot in these elections. The main concerns are immigration (31%), the economy (20%), and housing (11%). Arizona has 11 electoral votes.
Wisconsin, part of the 'Rust Belt', the manufacturing belt that faced a crisis from the 1970s, has 10 electoral votes and a Democratic past that Donald Trump questioned in 2016, although Biden reclaimed it in the 2020 elections. The economy and abortion rights are the main concerns for the state's residents. The population over 18 is 86% white, 5% black, and 4% Hispanic. Around 60% of registered voters opposed the US Supreme Court's decision to overturn the Roe vs. Wade case allowing abortion.
The state hosting Las Vegas, with six electoral votes, has been awaiting the approval of a lithium mine, which has finally been greenlit. Inflation and housing prices are pressing issues in a state still feeling the effects of the pandemic. Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the country, around 5.5%. Although Nevada has not voted Republican since 2004, experts consider it a 'purple' state, neither red nor blue, a mix of both trends. Independents also play a significant role.
After November 5th and the certification of the votes, the 538 electors will go to their state capitals (scheduled for the Monday following the second Wednesday of December, after the elections. This year it will be on November 25th) and cast their votes for the candidate (or candidates, in the case of Nebraska and Maine) chosen by their state. The next step is the session in the Capitol where these electoral votes are counted, and the election result is declared (since the mid-20th century, it has been held on January 6th at 1 p.m.). The vice president, in this case Vice President Kamala Harris, will preside over the session and announce the name of the next commander-in-chief. On January 20th, the transfer of power and inauguration will take place.