The United States does not believe that Israel's plans include a total invasion of Lebanon. Intelligence sources from the country and the Defense Department quoted by the main national media estimate that the ground incursion initiated in the early hours of Monday to Tuesday will be limited in time and geographically. However, recent history shows that Washington struggles to predict the plans of its main ally in the Middle East. And if there is something that more distant history shows, it is that Israel does not have many problems entering but does have difficulties leaving southern Lebanon.
The Israeli Army has confirmed the start of a "limited operation", and Washington has ordered the deployment of between 2,000 and 3,000 additional soldiers to "protect" its troops already stationed in the region, as well as Israel. Sabrina Singh, Pentagon spokesperson, explained on Monday that the deployment would include several squadrons of fighter jets, and throughout the day, it was indicated that the operation will include F-15, F-16, and F-22 combat aircraft, as well as A-10 planes, significantly strengthening the U.S. air capability in the Middle East. There are already 40,000 troops in countries like Iraq, Syria (to support the Kurds), Bahrain, or Saudi Arabia, among others, and the White House will assess in the coming days if more are needed.
Additionally, the U.S. has two mobilized aircraft carriers. The USS Abraham Lincoln in the Gulf of Oman, which will extend its mission, as stated by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III. And a second one, the USS Harry S. Truman, which left its base in Norfolk, Virginia, a week ago heading towards the Mediterranean.
The Department of Defense, as well as the State Department led by Antony Blinken, currently lean towards a "limited operation," but no one is very clear on what that entails. Whether it involves the use of artillery near the southern border of Lebanon, an invasion by land up to the Litani River basin, which was a primary target in 1978 and also between 1982 and 2000. Or beyond, similar to what happened in Gaza, with months and months of systematic destruction and almost individualized hunting of the entire Hamas leadership.
Israeli intelligence has explained to its allies that the main objective is to locate and destroy Hezbollah's main positions near the border, from where rockets have made some areas in northern Israel uninhabitable, as well as "identify tunnels and military infrastructure" of Iran's great ally or proxy, to later destroy them from the air. Ending their operational capacity, just as they have been eliminating political and military leaders with an unprecedented use of information and technology.
Iran is, in fact, the main reason for the increase in U.S. presence. On Sunday, Defense Secretary Austin warned Tehran that if they or "their partners or representatives use this moment to attack American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take all necessary measures to defend our people," according to a Pentagon statement.
In April, when Iran launched over 300 drones and missiles against Israel in response to the bombing of senior officials of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Syria, the U.S. led an international coalition, along with France and the United Kingdom, as well as Jordan and Gulf countries, which shot down a significant portion of them. Fears of a broader regional war are now a thing of the past.
The death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a bombing on Friday, most likely with U.S.-made bombs, has changed dynamics and hastened the defensive and offensive preparations of all major actors. Last week, at the UN, the U.S. and France tried to push for a ceasefire of at least three weeks. Israel declined, and hours later managed to kill one of its main enemies of recent decades.