Venezuela is holding presidential elections this Sunday, with Nicolás Maduro and Edmundo González as the main candidates. Polls show a wide majority for the latter, who leads the proposal of the democratic opposition. The main question is whether the Chavista leader would accept defeat or not. There is a lot at stake for the Latin American country, and these are some of the key points of the electoral event.
Why are they being held on July 28th?
Normally, elections take place in December, and the inauguration occurs in January. However, this call was decided by Nicolás Maduro. "In the exercise of its powers, the National Electoral Board evaluated the different proposals and recommendations presented to the board of directors of the CNE (...), and the presidential election of 2024 was approved for July 28th of the current year," announced Elvis Amoroso, president of the National Electoral Council, on March 5th. The decision was made within the framework of the Barbados dialogue and within the agreed period between the Government and the opposition.
There are 10 candidates participating, with former ambassador Edmundo González Urrutia (from the Democratic Unity Platform) leading the polls of traditional polling firms. Nicolás Maduro, who won his second term in 2018, is running for the Chavismo. The rest either have few chances or are close to the Government. The electoral ballot presented by the National Electoral Council (CNE) shows Maduro's face 13 times. It is not the only repeated face, as it depends on the organizations each candidate represents.
Who is called to vote?
21.6 million Venezuelans. However, there are over eight million Venezuelans abroad, and only 69,211 will be able to vote. The blockage of migrants has been one of the controversies in this call. The delay in opening the electoral registry led to a hunger strike in Madrid, led by Lorena Lima in front of the Venezuelan consulate. Difficulties in updating data at Venezuelan delegations worldwide have been one of the main obstacles. Alex Ojeda, a former electoral coordinator in Henrique Capriles' team who now resides in Madrid, was almost denied this right for having an expired NIE. He managed to resolve the "error of the Spanish Administration," as he narrates, and will be a voter on Sunday.
"They limited us with the requirements they imposed, which are unconstitutional because only an ID and legal residence are required. They have asked for, in addition to the ID, a valid passport, permanent residence, meaning you have been in the country for more than five years... That has reduced the electoral roll from 107,000 for the last elections to 69,000, as the U.S. and Canada do not participate. And that electoral registry that should have reached about four and a half million, is only a meager 69,000 worldwide," explains María Gabriela Olavarría, a leader of Vente Venezuela, Maria Corina Machado's party, and liaison in Spain with the campaign team. "Spain has the highest number of voters, we have more than 25,000 in five centers: Barcelona, Bilbao, Madrid, Tenerife, and Vigo," emphasizes Olavarría.
What will those unable to vote abroad do?
From the International Command with Venezuela, which supports Edmundo González's candidacy, they will try to give a voice to the millions of Venezuelans who cannot participate by going out to the main cities where the exile resides. In Madrid, the opposition has invited everyone who supports democracy in Venezuela to participate at 8:00 p.m. in Colón Square.
Through the website comanditosexterior.com, "for every vote denied to me, I can mobilize five in Venezuela," explains Estefanía Parra, international coordinator of Voluntad Popular. They will provide logistical support for Venezuelans still in the country to attend the polling stations. In 2018, there was a high abstention rate.
How long has Nicolás Maduro been in power?
Hugo Chávez died of cancer on March 5, 2013, but he had already chosen his successor: Nicolás Maduro. He won the presidential elections against Henrique Capriles on April 14. In 2014, one of the most significant challenges of the opposition began, with protests led by opposition leader Leopoldo López. The opposition briefly controlled the Assembly, but the rest of the powers were held by the Government, limiting their ability to act. In 2016, an attempt was made to hold a referendum to revoke Maduro's mandate, but it was halted by the electoral power and the judiciary. This was followed by another peak of protests in 2017. On July 30 of that same year, a Constituent Assembly was elected, granting all power to Chavismo, and in 2018, Maduro won the presidential elections, where the Democratic Unity Roundtable was illegalized, and there were suspicions of fraud. Thus, in 2019, he began his second term, but the opposition launched one of its most significant challenges: on January 23, Juan Guaidó was elected interim president. Up to 50 countries came to recognize him. The opposition tried to boycott the legislative elections in 2020. This Sunday, Maduro returns to the polls, but the elected candidate will not take office until January 2025.
Does the democratic opposition have a chance this time?
The democratic opposition trusts in the candidacy of the duo María Corina Machado and Edmundo González. Those supporting their candidacy highlight that dissent has never been so united before, and that the people are no longer afraid to come out and demonstrate. This has been evidenced in Machado's campaign events.
"In previous campaigns, we had never been ahead in opinion polls," argues Ramón López, coordinator of the Unitary Platform in Spain and a deputy of the National Assembly in 2015. "It is a transversal issue: from the most depressed sectors of the population to the middle class. Everyone is on the streets, sectors that used to vote for Chavismo, for Maduro, are expressing themselves on the streets," he adds.
No one knows. The key lies in what Nicolás Maduro decides to do. Will he accept the results if the opposition wins? And even if he acknowledges them, he will remain in power until January 2025, a long period in which anything can happen. "Bloodbath" and "civil war" are the terms he has used when referring to a possible victory of the democratic opposition. Former Venezuelan leaders agree that the role of the international community will be crucial. "It is a final stretch where the eyes of the international community cannot even blink," said Antonio Ledezma emphatically at the Venezuelan exile meeting in Madrid convened by this newspaper. In other words, "fulfilling that role of observer from a distance". The presence of international observers has been significantly limited in these elections.
Is another wave of migration feared?
If Maduro remains in power, a new exodus of Venezuelans is not ruled out, as seen in previous moments of crisis in 2014 and 2017.