One week, just one week. That's how long President Joe Bidenhas to endure to consolidate his candidacy and be again the Democrats' choice against Donald Trump in November. After the disastrous performance in the CNN debate, aggressive attacks from the progressive press, led by The New York Times, speculations about whether he is senile or has Parkinson's, public requests from half a dozen Democratic congressmen, and private or anonymous pleas from party heavyweights, his administration, and some major donors for him to step down, Biden's circle believes that, if he makes it to next Monday, it will be very difficult for his supporters to find an alternative.
Not impossible, because there is the option of a earthquake at the August convention, a blow, a maneuver to make it "open" and alternative candidates can be nominated. But it is almost unthinkable if it is not something coordinated and agreed upon. He has some leeway, but what is not so clear is whether the Democratic Party does, because this year not only the presidency is at stake, but also all seats in the House of Representatives, a third of the Senate, and a good number of governors.
The 2022 elections, known as the midterm, turned out much better than expected for the Democrats, amid rumors of a "red wave," referring to the Republican colors. And now it seemed they would continue to control the House, but pessimism and defeatism spread quickly and now they fear losing between 10 and 20 essential seats. Because if Trump wins, and also controls Congress, with an overwhelmingly conservative Supreme Court, the steamroller would be total.
However, all of that is somewhat on hold. In an anomaly, the presidential election campaign seems to have temporarily stopped in the United States. Donald Trump is missing, letting all the attention focus on the civil war among his rivals. Except for some social media messages and a video from a golf cart insulting Biden ("a bunch of old garbage") and Kamala Harris ("pathetic, damn bad"), no trace. And the president, instead of attracting undecided voters, is trying to plug internal leaks. His actions, his interviews, are not to gain votes, but to avoid an internal revolution, to convince that he does not have neurological problems. And when all your message is to reaffirm that you are not doing badly, it is clear that politically you are not doing well.
The last 10 days have been a nightmare for the president, who does not control the narrative, and all eyes were on this Monday and Tuesday. The New York Times, in the midst of an already open war, hinted with White House visitor logs that the president might have Parkinson's and there would be a campaign to hide it. The government had to come out hours later, with a sworn statement from the doctors, to deny that the president had the slightest problem or that he had even been subjected to any test. But the damage, once again, was done.
Last week Congress was closed, and it will be closed again next week due to the Republican National Convention, where Trump will be officially declared the candidate and his vice president will also be announced. That's why, this Tuesday, Democratic congressmen met in Washington early in the morning, and shortly after, senators gathered for a traditional lunch.
The impression they left could not have been grayer. Biden has lukewarm support from some, including popular figures on the left like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ("the debate is closed, he is our candidate"), and centrists. But the image was one of absolute pessimism. No enthusiasm, no joy. Only resignation at best. "To say it resembles a funeral is an insult to funerals," said one of them to the Semafor media. It is what it is and there seems to be no escape, but according to Axios, some of those at stake, feeling powerless, lamented with tears that the president's position will drag them down.
The Democratic Party is divided and no one is sure how to act. The numbers place Biden behind Trump and moving further away. It looks bad overall and in the so-called battleground states, the five or six where strategists believe everything will be decided with the undecided voters, in particular. An example is Wisconsin. Polls say that Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin has risen five points and comfortably leads her Republican opponent by 10, but in that same state, those same voters, give Trump a six-point lead, when before the debate they were tied.
This week will be about the numbers. Without a great Democratic leader coming out to ask the president to sacrifice himself, without a joint letter from all senators, as speculated, only the pressure from the polls remains. Biden is losing in all of them, but in most scenarios, the other alternatives are not better. According to Emerson's poll, nationally, the president is losing 46%-43% against Trump, with 11% undecided. But the others are either the same (Kamala Harris, the vice president) or worse, including desperate options like Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, and the main progressive senators and governors.
The NATO summit being held in Washington is the great opportunity for Biden to improve his damaged reputation. His party asked him after the CNN debate debacle to increase his presence, to have his face seen everywhere at all times to heal, but he has done the opposite, perhaps out of fear of a new blunder, which could be definitive. Only a real interview, on ABC, and there he pointed to the Atlantic Alliance meeting. He said he didn't need to take cognitive tests because "every day I spend one governing the world". There, surrounded by leaders and cameras for three days, is where he will have his next test. Whether it is the last one depends largely on himself and no one else.